[ANALYSIS] The state of the PN: balloons of hope versus deadweight anchors

Independence week is traditionally the time for Nationalist Party activists to regroup at the Floriana granaries after the summer interlude, feasting on bigilla, bebbux as well as politics.

It is on this folksy occasion of partisan and national remembrance that the PN leader was also expected to set the party’s direction during the annual mass meeting. These celebrations are an important historical reference point for activists who recall the time when Independence Day was removed from the calendar of national holidays by Dom Mintoff’s Labour administration of the 1970s.

And of course, the size of the meeting itself has always been seen as a barometer of the party’s strength and enthusiasm of its supporters.

Which is why this year’s downscaled events, held around the PN headquarters in Pietà rather than at the vast expanse of the granaries, sent out yet another depressing signal to supporters.

The decision may have been dictated by financial considerations, but it also points to the party’s decline. Leader Adrian Delia will most certainly remain PN leader till the next general election after winning the trust of 67% of party councillors last July, but he is widely seen as a lame duck heading for certain defeat. And no one else has stepped forward to take away his poisoned chalice.

Yet, in politics nothing can be taken for granted and hope is the last thing to die. So which are the ‘hopeful’ helium balloons that Delia can cling to? And which are the anchors holding him down, and the temptations which may lead him astray?

The PN's balloons of hope are very much dependent on external factors

Helium balloons

The proverbial 10-year itch

1962-1971, 1971-1981, 1987-1996. These are the numbers representing historical 10-year cycles which saw governments lose their majority after 10 years in government. And even when Gonzi broke the cycle in 2008, he only won by 1,500 votes. Delia has often spoken of political cycles but there is nothing written that these are cast in stone. And so far, apart from some discontentment on the environment there have been little signs of an itch among Labour voters and floaters.

A new leader after Muscat

Joseph Muscat keeps everyone guessing on whether he will resign from leader before the next general election. Delia may still live in hope that the succession in the Labour Party will degenerate into a civil war that would fatally weaken the next party leader, whose stature may pale in comparison with Muscat’s.

An economic slowdown

So far, Muscat has had all the stars aligned with his first term coinciding with lower oil prices and a favourable international climate. But an international recession may be on the horizon and the property market may be showing the first signs of slowing down. This may make the government more vulnerable especially if the economic growth of the past years is exposed as fragile and too dependent on the construction sector. A slowdown could give the Opposition steam.

Pockets of disgruntlement

Pockets of disgruntlement may be emerging as the government inevitably takes decisions which do not keep everyone happy. This is also bound to create pockets of disgruntled businessmen, property owners and aspirants for public posts who feel left out. Labour’s success has been to avoid the perception that only a clique is benefitting. This is bound to become more difficult and Delia may already be meeting people who fit the profile: ex-Nationalists who turned Labour, who may consider turning back if they are promised something in return. These people may also have deep pockets, something the PN would want to tap into.

The PN has several anchors that are weighing it down

Deadweight anchors

The gap is too large and keeps growing

The 47,000-vote gap in local elections held across the country last May, the loss of traditional PN majority councils, and the loss of the third seat in the European Parliament were a reminder that the road is still uphill. The results signalled that the worse was still not over for his party. As the PN enters a downward spiral, the gap could continue to grow.

Safe leader, divided party

67% of party councillors expressed trust in Delia but the party remains divided and the leader still finds it hard to assert his own authority.

Moreover, new reference points like the NGO Repubblika have been created for former PN activists who distrust Delia but are too highly motivated to simply disappear from the scene.

No generational renewal

The party is increasingly a geriatric one, failing to attract fresh talent and foster a new generation of spokespersons. The shadow cabinet is simply no match for Labour’s cabinet. People find it hard to consider an alternative Nationalist government and this on its own keeps potential new PN candidates from joining the fray.

Tempting apples that may confuse people

Temptations

Luring back the businessmen

Labour may take pride in being a pro-business party but some of its decisions are bound to hurt.

Naturally, the PN cannot afford not to have a constructive dialogue with developers and business at large. But how far can the PN go in exploiting any disgruntlement? Delia’s stance on rent reform, which grants the Housing Authority the power to inspect houses to enforce a law meant to protect tenants, has already been shot down by social justice activists. Delia may find himself running with the hares and hunting with the hounds, one day complaining on unaffordable housing and the next day opposing the government’s attempts to address this issue. This confuses people.

Reclaiming a conservative identity

In his first Independence Day speech as leader, Delia referred to Religio et Patria in what was seen as an indication of him taking the party back to its conservative roots. As leader, he has toyed with rhetoric on foreigners even if his target was never refugees and asylum seekers.

He has been unflinching in opposing abortion but is more liberal on LGBTIQ issues. The temptation to pander to conservatism may grow but clearly Delia is no Salvini or Trump. The PN leader lacks a consistent narrative of the sort, despite flirting with conservatism.

Supporting any opposition

The party may find it convenient to support anyone who is protesting against government, irrespective of whether the protestors are environmentalists, social justice activists or developers’ lobbies. This may, in the end, perpetuate the impression that the party lacks direction.