One year on: Putin is not winning but everything depends on what happens in spring

Exactly a year ago Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine, by launching a full-frontal assault on several of its main cities: including the capital, Kiev.

Many expected a quick Russian victory resulting in the imposition of a puppet government in Kiev which would have brought Ukraine back in Putin’s sphere of influence.

It was the heroic fight-back and resilience of ordinary Ukrainians led by the charismatic President Volodymyr Zelensky  in the early days of the war, which stopped this from happening.

One year later, it is clear that the attempt to overthrow Ukraine’s legitimate government has failed. Not just in the military sense – though Russia’s failure in that department is clearly evident – but also, in the very objectives that the invasion had set out to achieve.

For while Russia had justified its invasion on the pretext that Ukraine was edging too close to NATO, and the EU; in reality, Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has clearly had the opposite effect.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

Since then, not only has the EU formally recognised Ukraine as a candidate country but Sweden and Finland have also ditched their own neutrality, and applied to join NATO themselves.

Furthermore, the Western alliance has so far been compact in its response: imposing sanctions on Russia, and sending weapons – including tanks – to assist with the Ukrainian war effort.

In the end, the invasion has only served to reinvigorate the Western alliance, as a bulwark against Russian aggression in Europe. Even Germany, which was reluctant for understandable historical reasons, is now committed to send its own Leopard tanks. 

This suggests that Putin has failed, not just in securing the ‘quick victory’ that Russia had clearly anticipated; but also, in his primary objective of creating a buffer-zone between NATO and Russia.

Moreover, Putin’s ongoing attempts to portray Russian troops as ‘liberators’ – freeing Russian-speaking Ukrainians, from ‘Neo-Nazi tyranny’ – contrasts sharply, with the global revulsion after mass graves in Bucha and Izium (among other evidence of war crimes including mass kidnappings and sexual violence committed by Russian troops, against Ukrainians).

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Thousands of Ukrainians have died and millions displaced as a result of the Russian invasion

A daunting human cost

Yet, while Putin’s gamble for a kick out blow on Ukraine has not paid off, the human cost inflicted on Ukraine is daunting.

According to official data by the United Nations the war has resulted in more than 21,000 civilian casualties, with 8,006 people killed and 13,287 wounded. 14 million people were displaced from their homes by the conflict. But this is probably only the tip of the iceberg.

Despite all these setbacks, Putin may still be ‘in it for the long haul’, hoping that the energy crisis – and resulting inflation – will weaken Western resolve; as European electorates become restless, and more prone to elect populist and far right governments, who may waver in their support for Ukraine. Still, so far even the new Italian government led by the right wing Giorgia Meloni has renewed its firm commitment to support Ukraine.

But Putin can still bank on destabilisation, particularly in the Balkan hot spots like Bosnia Herzegovina and Kosovo.

While the west is compact in its support for Ukraine, India and China – the two most populous nations on earth – along with South Africa have abstained on the latest UN resolution calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

Putin may be banking on the tacit approval of China which harbours its own ambitions as an emerging superpower and may see Putin’s war as a welcome distraction for the west as it focuses on asserting its dominance in its own backyard – a path which could set it on a collision course with the US on Taiwan.

Putin can also exploit justified mistrust of the west in the global south; which is rooted in revulsion against Western colonialism, and double standards on issues like the occupation of Palestine, the US past blunders in Iraq and Afghanistan and the complete disregard for other conflicts in Yemen and Ethiopia.

Still, despite these hang-ups an overwhelming majority of 141 nations have voted the latest UN resolution condemning Russia and only seven voted against.

Russian president Vladimir Putin

No signs of crumbling

But despite the imposition of harsh sanctions, the Putin regime has not shown any signs of crumbling. For despite, heroic protests in the initial days of the war, which were met with arrests and repression in Moscow there are still no signs of any strong internal challenge to the Putin regime.

All the indications, one year later, are that Putin has overreached himself and is now fighting to retain the illegally annexed Ukrainian territories, rather than posing a threat to Kiev and its government.

While Putin relies on Russian conscripts sent to the meat grinder of a war he alone is responsible for, Ukrainians have shown courage and determination in defending their country; even winning back key cities like Kharkiv, from which the occupiers were driven back in humiliation.

The greatest risk at the moment is a prolonged stalemate. For while Ukraine is perfectly right to insist on Putin withdrawing all his troops from occupied Ukraine, before any negotiations can take place; it is extremely unlikely for Putin to ever accept such a humiliating retreat.

The west’s gamble, on the other hand, is that – armed with tanks and long-range missiles – Ukraine may inflict severe damage on Russian forces in the next months, forcing Putin to negotiate from a position of weakness, rather than strength.

Much depends on the outcome of an expected Russian offensive in the spring. If it fails and Ukraine counter attacks making further inroads in the annexed territories, the greater the chance for peace will be.

And if Putin ignores this and sends more Russians to the meat grinder, he may well end up undermining his hold on power.

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A TIMELINE OF WAR

February 2022  

Russian forces attacked Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and its second-largest city, Kharkiv, in an attempt to overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government 

March 2022

Russian forces, attempting to secure Ukraine’s coast, took the city of Kherson and its wider province 

April 2022

EP President Roberta Metsola was the first top EU official to visit Ukraine

Russian missile strike on a train station in Kramatorsk, a city in Donetsk, killed more than 50 civilians. The attack came at the start of a Russian offensive, ordered by President Vladimir Putin, to seize all of Donbas. 

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola vists Ukraine  

May 2022

Last Ukrainian fighters surrendered to Russian forces in Mariupol, a port city and industrial hub on the Sea of Azov, after weeks of bombardment that killed thousands of civilians, The fighting ended with a siege at the Azovstal steel plant, which had become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.

June 2022

Ukrainian forces recaptured Snake Island off the coast of the city of Odesa. 

July 2022

The last city under Ukrainian control in Luhansk, Lysychansk, fell to Russia after weeks of fighting 

August 2022

Ukraine waged a counteroffensive in the Kherson region. Kyiv’s forces deployed Western-supplied weapons systems, such as HIMARS, to target Russian military infrastructure. Ukraine also attacked a Russian air base in Crimea. 

September 2022

In a rapid offensive, Ukraine retook much of the northeastern Kharkiv region and seized the initiative in the war. Ukraine later recaptured the city of Lyman in Donetsk Province. 

October 2022

Explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge linking Crimea with Russia. Two days later, Russia attacked Ukrainian towns and cities from land, sea and air, the start of a campaign to cripple the country’s energy infrastructure. Russia also annexed four Ukrainian regions — Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. 

November 2022

Russian forces withdrew from the city of Kherson to the eastern side of the Dnipro River, a significant victory for Ukraine. 

December 2022

Ukraine used drones to attack military bases hundreds of miles inside Russia. On the battlefield, soldiers endured grim conditions as winter took hold.

January 2023

Ukraine said its forces had killed or wounded hundreds of Russian fighters in a missile strike in Donetsk region. Moscow said 89 soldiers had died.

February 2023

Russian forces sustained heavy losses during weeks of fighting around the city of Vuhledar, southwest of Bakhmut, raising questions about Moscow’s ability to sustain an offensive expected in Donbas region. 

US President Joe Biden visits Ukraine.