Harris polling just 1% ahead of Trump as election day looms

With just over a week to go before America goes to the polls in the 2024 US Presidential elections, Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by one percent in the national polling average of the cycle, her lowest lead in months. 

As of Saturday afternoon, the national polling average reported by the New York Times had Harris at 49 percent to Trump’s 48. Several other polls have shown a tied race in recent weeks, with some showing Trump pulling ahead. 

The NYT says that Harris’ lead across the country is at its smallest since the Democratic convention and that most major national polls are now showing a shift toward Trump.

Both Harris and Trump have states which they can count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win.

Harris’ fading lead - she was polling 50 per cent and Trump 46 on October 1 - raises the possibility of a Trump victory in the national popular vote, but as things stand, the candidates remain essentially neck and neck. 

As the November 5 ballot-casting date looms, neither candidate appears to have a meaningful advantage over the other across the seven “swing states” that will likely decide the outcome of the election, giving the impression that it may be swayed by a fraction of a point. 

But a tiny lead in polling averages is by no means an indicator of who will ultimately come out on top. Polls do not decide elections - voters do. 

Harris and Trump are virtually tied — though the gender gap in the latest Times/Siena survey is still consistently showing Harris leading Trump 54 percent to 42 percent among women voters, and Trump leading Harris among male respondents at 55 percent to 41 percent.