China to overtake US science-wise in two years

The study reveals that in 1996, the first year of the analysis, the US published 292,513 scientific research papers - more 10 times China's 25,474. But By 2008, the US total had increased only very slightly (to 316,317), while China's had multiplied by seven times to a whopping 184,080.

This study shows that China, after displacing the UK as the world's second leading producer of research, could go on to overtake America in as little as two years' time if it keeps up the current pace.

Previous estimates for the rate of expansion of Chinese science had suggested that China might overtake the US sometime, but only after 2020.

"Projections vary, but a simple linear interpretation of Elsevier's publishing data suggests that this could take place as early as 2013," it says.

Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, who chaired the report, said he was "not surprised" by this increase in the light of China's massive boost to investment in R&D.

Chinese spending has grown by 20% per year since 1999, now reaching over $100 billion, and as many as 1.5 million science and engineering students graduated from Chinese universities in 2006.

"I think this is positive, of great benefit, though some might see it as a threat and it does serve as a wake-up call for us not to become complacent."

The report also stresses that American research output will not decline in absolute terms and raises the possibility of countries like Japan and France rising to meet the Chinese challenge.

"But the potential for China to match American output in terms of sheer numbers in the near to medium term is clear."

The study, Knowledge, Networks and Nations, charts the challenge to the traditional dominance of the United States, Europe and Japan.

The figures are based on the papers published in recognised international journals listed by the Scopus service of the publishers Elsevier.