Uncovering betting value in the current Premier League campaign

A few games of the newest Premier League season have already taken place, giving fans of the competition an idea of which clubs are best-placed to finish in the top spots. It doesn't take a genius to suggest that Manchester City will finish in the top three, for example, and given that City have won the last four Premier League titles, even that prediction is conservative. Bookmakers are aware of this, and their odds reflect this awareness. It begs the question, is there any value in betting on the current Premier League campaign?

This article aims to explore the answer to that question, looking at both the limited sample size of football from the current season as well as historical evidence from recent years. Read on to find out if it's worth placing that outright bet.

How the current campaign is unfolding

At the time of writing, we're two games into the 2024-25 Premier League season. Only four clubs still have a 100% record: City, Brighton, Arsenal, and Liverpool. Three of those four names being so close to the top of the table isn't a surprise, but Brighton obviously sticks out. The Seagulls started the last campaign strongly too before fading away and eventually finishing 11th. A change of manager in the summer could have required a bedding-in period. However, 31-year-old Fabian Hürzeler hit the ground running by following a strong pre-season up with a convincing win at Everton and a confident late victory over Manchester United on home turf.

Once again, it's worth mentioning their drop-off in form last season. That could happen this time around too, but one must take into account that they were dealing with a thin squad that had just sold two key players in Caicedo and Mac Allister last time around. This summer has been totally different. Brighton are no longer being picked apart by vulture clubs higher in the food chain. Rather, they're spending money and showing intent. This could be the season that Brighton crack into the top six, if not the top four. 

Anyone considering backing Brighton to finish in those European places should do so before more games pass. The more wins that Brighton get in the early weeks, the lower the odds will become. Check out sites like sportwetten24.com to find the best odds on clubs finishing in specific places or winning on particular matchdays. Punters with this kind of foresight have gone down in history as our next sections will show.

Historical premier league shocks

Leicester City's 5000-1 fairytale

No discussion of Premier League upsets would be complete without mentioning Leicester City's miraculous title win in the 2015-16 season. Starting the season as 5000-1 outsiders, the Foxes, under the guidance of Claudio Ranieri, defied all expectations to clinch the title. Key to their success was the explosive form of Jamie Vardy, the midfield mastery of N'Golo Kanté, and the creative spark of Riyad Mahrez. This perfect storm of factors, combined with the underperformance of traditional top teams, created a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for bettors who had faith in the underdogs.

The Leicester City story serves as a reminder that in the Premier League, anything is possible. It fundamentally altered how bookmakers approach long-shot odds and how bettors view potential dark horses.

Other Notable Upsets

While Leicester's triumph stands alone, the Premier League has a rich history of unexpected outcomes. Blackburn Rovers' title win in 1994-95, bankrolled by Jack Walker and spearheaded by Alan Shearer, was a shock to the established order at the time. And Chelsea weren't expected to win the Premier League title in Jose Mourinho's first season in charge, but did so just that back in 2004-05.

Manchester City's last-gasp title win in 2011-12, secured with Sergio Agüero's iconic goal in the final minutes of the season, reminded us that the league can be decided by the finest of margins. For bettors, this emphasises the importance of considering all scenarios, even those that seem improbable. In fact, those that seem improbable will have odds that reflect that improbability.

Relegation battles and surprises

The fight for Premier League survival often produces some of the most dramatic and unpredictable storylines. Teams like Wigan Athletic made a habit of pulling off great escapes, most notably in the 2011-12 season when they won seven of their last nine games to avoid relegation. Eventually, though, a club's luck runs out and they fall down into the Championship.

Conversely, the 2022-23 season saw Everton, one of the league's ever-present teams, narrowly avoid relegation on the final day. These scenarios highlight the potential value in the relegation betting markets, where form, fixture difficulty, and psychological factors play crucial roles. Now Everton are viewed as relegation battlers, so the odds you find on them getting relegated won't be very high. 

Looking at players who defy the odds

The Premier League has seen its fair share of unexpected individual successes. From Michu's explosive debut season at Swansea City in 2012-13 to Jamie Vardy's record-breaking goal-scoring run in 2015-16, players can sometimes hit a streak of form that defies all predictions. Having said that, sometimes the more niche statistical metrics can show that a player has unfulfilled potential.

These instances offer intriguing opportunities in player performance markets. Astute bettors who can spot emerging talents or players on the cusp of a breakout season stand to gain significant value. Doing research on young unknowns signed by mid-table clubs can provide value, particularly for markets like the Golden Boot or the PFA Young Player of the Year award.

Conclusion

The Premier League's unpredictable nature is what makes it so captivating for fans and potentially lucrative for bettors. From Leicester's fairy tale to last-minute title deciders, history has shown us that the impossible can become possible.

As this season unfolds, keep an eye on emerging trends, be open to challenging your preconceptions, and always do thorough research before placing a bet. Remember, in the Premier League, today's underdog could be tomorrow's champion. Bet wisely and responsibly, and you might just uncover the next great Premier League betting story.