Italy and Chile’s three-peat of World Cup absences

When a major football nation misses one World Cup, it is usually treated as a shock. When it happens twice, it becomes a crisis. When it happens three times in a row, it is no longer possible to explain it solely by bad luck, poor refereeing decisions, or a single disappointing match. This is now the situation facing both Italy and Chile.

Despite having very different football histories, both countries have failed to qualify for the 2018, 2022 and 2026 World Cups. The failure suggests deeper issues in player development, tactical direction, and football infrastructure.

Italy’s decline is striking because of the country’s status in world football. Italy is a four-time World Cup winner and has historically been associated with tactical intelligence, defensive excellence and strong tournament mentality.

Chile may not have Italy’s World Cup history, but its golden generation created one of the most impressive periods in the country’s footballing history. Players such as Alexis Sánchez, Arturo Vidal, Claudio Bravo, Gary Medel, Mauricio Isla, Eduardo Vargas, Gonzalo Jara and Jean Beausejour helped Chile win back-to-back Copa América titles in 2015 and 2016.

One of the clearest issues is the player pool. Italy still produces talented players, but it has struggled to produce enough elite-level footballers in certain key positions, especially in attack. Italian clubs have often depended heavily on foreign players but it would be too simple to blame the decline on them. Young Italian players have not always been given enough consistent opportunities to develop under pressure. If young players are not trusted at club level, the national team eventually suffers.

Chile’s player problem is slightly different. Its golden generation has aged, but the next generation has not emerged with the same quality or consistency. For several years, Chile relied on the same core group because those players had experience, personality and international pedigree. However, this also created dependency. Once their physical levels declined, Chile lacked replacements capable of carrying the same responsibility. The country became caught between respecting its past and needing to move on.

Tactics have also contributed to the decline of both teams. Italy’s football identity has often been linked to organisation, patience and defensive structure. These qualities remain valuable, but modern international football requires more variety. Teams now need to press effectively, move the ball quickly, create chances against compact defences and adapt to different game situations. Italy’s Euro 2020 victory showed that the national team could modernise, but that progress was not sustained. In qualification matches, Italy has too often looked tense, predictable and unable to turn possession into decisive attacking moments. The issue is not that Italy has lost its tactical culture, but that it has struggled to translate that culture into a more modern style and to do so more consistently.

Chile, on the other hand, was at its best when it played with intensity, aggression and collective energy. The influence of Marcelo Bielsa and, later, Jorge Sampaoli helped create a team that pressed high, attacked bravely, and played with emotional force. That style suited the golden generation but is difficult to maintain as the squad ages.

And then there is infrastructure. National teams are not built only during qualification campaigns. They are built years earlier through youth coaching, club opportunities, league standards and federation planning. Italy’s domestic football still has quality, but there are longstanding concerns about youth development, outdated stadiums, financial pressures and short-term thinking among clubs.

When clubs prioritise immediate survival or quick results, young players are often treated as risks rather than investments. If talent is not developed early enough, the national side eventually becomes exposed.

Italy and Chile’s three-peat failures in World Cup qualifying should not be viewed solely as a sporting embarrassment. They are evidence of wider footballing decline. Passion and history are not enough. Football has changed, and national teams that fail to renew themselves are quickly left behind.

Both nations can return, but only if they treat these failures as structural warnings rather than temporary accidents.