The million-dollar question

Enigmatic is perhaps the closest description of Labour leader Robert Abela. He remains a puzzling character even to his closest of aides. Cryptic messages and baffling hints that may or may not indicate what he is thinking have often left people baffled about his intentions.

It is this characteristic that has left everyone uncertain over the answer to the million-dollar question: Will Abela call an election now?

The die appears to be cast, indicating it is only a matter of time when the prime minister will announce the election date. And yet, even this indication may still be one interpretation too far.

However unfair it sounds, there is plenty of logic from a political perspective to call an election now because it gives the Labour Party an advantage at a time of global uncertainty.

The economy is still going strong and that is a key factor but this has to be viewed within the wider context of a war in the Persian Gulf that risks spiralling out of control.

The Iran war and its impact are variables outside government’s control. The damage to the Maltese economy so far has been limited but for an island state dependent on imports that will undoubtedly be impacted by higher fuel and energy bills, the war will undoubtedly have an inflationary effect. It will impact everything from an airline ticket to an appliance, to foodstuffs, fuel and medicines.

This predicament could see the price of services and products spiral upwards, leaving households squeezed. And from a political perspective, inflation is not good when seeking understanding from a voter. The voter will feel uneasy and inevitably blame the government of the day for their situation.

Logic dictates that before shit hits the fan, Abela should hit the road running. It will be a pre-emptive strike.

But there are other variables which one cannot be ignored and that militate in favour of an early election.

The first one is PN leader Alex Borg. He is new to the job but has shown he is a mark or two ahead of his predecessors since 2013—Simon Busuttil, Adrian Delia and Bernard Grech. Borg has managed to regroup the Nationalists and attract younger voters. The PN still trails in the polls but under Borg, the gap between the two major parties has been narrowed significantly.

The other variable concerns the political sins that haunt any incumbent government. Will there be another scandal? Who will be the next liability? An embarrassing situation can complicate matters.

And then there is what could ostensibly be the biggest variable—Yorgen Fenech’s jury trial. This trial could have political ramifications with the possibility of exhuming sins from the recent past. If an election were held now, it would spare Abela from the pains of a court case that could drag the political establishment into a quagmire.

Robert Abela has many advantages. He commandeered an economy that left more people with money in their pockets. He steered the country through the COVID pandemic and later had to contend with the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

He was shaken by mishaps such as the Jean Paul Sofia public inquiry, the planning reform and the Vitals scandal. But somehow, he found a way of transiting from one crisis to another, ensuring the ship of State continued to sail on.

Nonetheless, despite an overall feel-good mood, the non-voter base has grown, suggesting growing dissatisfaction with the state of our nation.

The non-voter base is there for convincing. Some are motivated by personal considerations but many others are altruistic and want the best for their country and their children.  Some are young people, too idealistic to find refuge in any of the political formations.

These voters cannot be taken for granted and addressing them will be a key consideration. Abela and Borg must deliver a message that their vision for the country is different, fresh and renewed. But they also need to contend with the underlying messages voters are giving—protecting open spaces, regulating the population explosion, the need to find solutions for mass transport, the need to diversify the economy, the need to carry out social reforms and the need for greater accountability in government.

The uncommitted voters want decision makers, clarity and far-sightedness; and only then will they consider voting. Between the mass of loyal voters on both sides of the political divide there is this corpus of smart voters, who are saying they will not be fooled by anyone. They are sick of hearing empty promises that treat Citizen Joe as a pawn in a political chess game.

Only time will tell, who will win their hearts. And my feeling is that we will not need to wait for so long to know!