Tracing the drone strike back to Libya

The shadowy maritime strike on the Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz in the early hours of 3 March 2026 immediately sparked allegations of Ukrainian involvement. Russian senior leaders immediately claimed the attack was launched from Libya’s western coast. Russian sources also indicated that at least three Magura maritime drones, along with two or more aerial drones struck the LNG tanker approximately 150 miles off the Libyan coast of Sirte—a geographical point just outside Malta’s search and rescue region.

Although the Russian reports remain officially unverified by third party independent sources and the Ukrainian authorities have not officially claimed the attack, this incident represents a notable escalation. It was the first reported strike by Ukraine on a fully laden tanker operated by Russia’s shadow fleet. Prior operations targeted unladen shadow fleet ships or Russian military vessels. The attack on a fully loaded tanker in the central Mediterranean by Ukraine also suggests a significant widening of operational scope within a much larger area of operations.

The Arctic Metagaz was hit in its engine room and in two separate LNG compartments—one hit was located on port side and the other on starboard side—causing flooding that left the vessel crippled but still floating. The precision and placement of the three strikes identified suggest a highly coordinated operation. The incident also indicates that Ukraine now possesses the capability to project force across the central Mediterranean through Libya, potentially putting all the Russian shadow fleet’s maritime assets transiting through the area at risk. It also has other options to strike shipping in the Mediterranean.

Central to the attack is a ‘base’ in western Libya near the Mellitah Oil Complex. In October and November 2025, this ‘base’ reportedly underwent slipway upgrades for the launch of maritime drones as well as the installation of communication support infrastructure necessary for the command and control of the same drone vessels.

Sources also indicate that the Ukrainian presence in Libya stems from a broader cooperation agreement formalised last October, following a request by Ukraine’s military attaché in Algeria, General Andriy Payuk. These Ukrainian deployments were allegedly subsequently formally approved by Libya’s Government of National Unity under Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh and the Libyan Under-Secretary of Defence Abdul Slam Zubi. In exchange for these deployment rights to Libya, Ukraine is said to provide drones and associated drone training as well as arms sales support to Libya. Additionally, Ukrainian military personnel have been actively present in three locations in western Libya, namely the Libyan Air Force Academy in Misurata, at the small base near Mellitah and at the 111th Brigade camp in Tripoli. The Tripoli camp reportedly also functions as a co-ordination and liaison centre between Ukrainian personnel and Libyan officials.

In recent months, forces aligned with Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh received new drone shipments via a neighbouring country, with Ukrainian experts overseeing deployment and maintenance. These developments reflected the growing Tripoli–Kyiv ties, partly driven by Libyan GNU efforts to counter Russian influence in eastern Libya. Interestingly, back in August 2025, a Libyan militia by the name of Special Deterrence Force claimed it had downed three Ukrainian-made reconnaissance drones over Mitiga Air Base in Libya. These drones were reportedly part of a larger shipment acquired through intermediaries, demonstrating a complex network of procurement and arms transfers.

Algerian intelligence has also accused Ukraine’s Military Attaché, Colonel Andriy Bayuk of exploiting diplomatic immunity to facilitate such drone transfers. These allegations fit a broader narrative of Ukraine expanding its footprint in African conflict zones to counter Russian influence and Wagner Group presence there. Reports also suggest drones of Ukrainian origin have appeared beyond Libya, including northern Mali where Ukraine reportedly supports Tuareg separatists and Sudan, assisting forces aligned with Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Some sources even suggest potential Ukrainian support, be it direct or indirect to armed groups in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, opposing governments allied with Russia. These inter-connected reports represent a significant escalation in the Ukraine-Russia war, which is now extending into north Africa and the Sahel. In addition, Libya’s fractured political and security landscape makes it more susceptible to such proxy activities.

The attack on the Arctic Metagaz in Malta’s backyard also highlights a shifting dynamic in modern warfare where geographically distant conflicts manifest themselves around us with the proliferation of drone technologies. These geopolitical rivalries and wars are now spilling into new, often unstable arenas such as Libya. In fact, the Arctic Metagaz incident has made it very clear that the shadow war between Kyiv and Moscow is no longer confined to eastern Europe. It is now also unfolding much closer to home.