MaltaToday survey: Labour leads by 17,400 votes

SUMMARY

The Labour Party enjoys a lead of 17,386 votes over the Nationalist Party in MaltaToday’s first election survey as the campaign hits the half-way mark. PL leader Robert Abela also enjoys a seven-point lead over PN leader Alex Borg on the trust barometer.

The gap between the two major parties could be anything in the range between 15,456 and 23,735 votes, depending on different scenarios and statistical models. In the 2022 general election the gap between the parties stood at a whopping 39,000 votes.

The survey is based on a robust sample of 1,408 respondents and has a margin of error of +/-2.6 points. The survey started two days after the election was called by Abela and was completed on Wednesday 13 May.

But the results shows that a substantial 16.6% of voters are still undecided on who they will be voting for, equivalent to around 59,000 voters.

This introduces an element of uncertainty in the polls, simply because the undecided can still swing the election either way.

The survey used a statistical imputation based on a prediction model to apportion the undecided to the party they are most likely to vote for.

Before the imputation was applied the PL already enjoyed a 5.7-point lead over the PN. After the imputation the lead increased to 6.3 points.

Compared to March, when the last MaltaToday survey was held, the gap between the two parties has widened from 2.6 points to 6.3 points.

Meanwhile, the trust gap between the leaders widened from 6.4 points to seven points.

Based on a turnout of around 77.3%, which is four points lower than in March, the gap would translate into a vote difference of around 17,400, up from 7,500 in March.

Contrary to previous surveys held before the election campaign, the PN is now losing more of its 2022 election votes to abstention (15%) than the PL, which loses 11.3%. This suggests that Labour is being more effective in galvanising its voting base than the PN.

But the survey confirms a small but consistent shift from the PL to the PN which also recovers more votes from voters who abstained in 2022.

The survey confirms that current non-voters are substantially more likely to trust Robert Abela than Alex Borg to lead the country.

The survey coincided with the first two and a half weeks of the electoral campaign. The first week was characterised by Labour’s blitz of propaganda and proposals which may have shellshocked pale blue voters. The second week of the campaign saw the PN taking the initiative by presenting a number of targeted proposals aimed at leaving more money in people’s pockets, while targeting new economic niches.

VOTING INTENTIONS

Labour leads by six points at the half-way mark

The Labour Party remains ahead of the Nationalist Party with a lead of 6.3 points midway in the election campaign, up from just 2.6 points in March.

The MaltaToday survey also shows the PL winning an absolute majority of 50.1%, which has not been the case in any survey since 2024. However, the projected margin of victory for the PL at this stage is less dramatic than its 2022 election victory when it obtained 55.1% of the vote.

The results come from a survey of 1,408 respondents contacted over the past two weeks and a half. The survey has a margin of error of +/-2.6 points.

The PL’s support at 50.1% is up from 48.2% in March when the last MaltaToday survey was held.

In contrast the PN has seen its support decrease from 45.6% to 43.8% in the same period. The third-party vote collectively stands at 6.1%, which is the same level of support as in March.  

Surprisingly, compared to March the percentage of non-voters has increased from 19.3% to 22.7%. This suggests that the electoral campaign has not galvanised this category of voters. But the survey suggests that the PL is being more successful than the PN in attracting back some of its former voters.

In fact, Labour has consolidated its lead during the initial phase of the campaign thanks to a drop in abstention among its voters in 2022 from 13% to 11%. In contrast abstention in the PN camp has increased from 5.6% to a 15%. Moreover, the PL now retains more of its 2022 voters (80.3%) than the PN (78.5%).

A shift from PL to the PN

But the survey also confirms a small but significant shift from the PL to the PN, which explains the reduced gap between the two parties when compared to the 39,000-vote super majority in 2022. The current scenario indicates that the gap between the two major parties can range between 15,500 votes and 23,700 votes depending on the statistical model used.

The key factor behind the reduced gap is a shift of 6% of PL voters in 2022 (over 9,700) to the PN when compared to 3.3% of PN voters (over 4,000 votes), who are now voting Labour. This means a net shift of around 5,700 votes from the PL to the PN.

Also contributing to the reduced gap is the PN recovering 16.7% of non-voters in 2022 (8,500 votes). Both parties lose a similar amount of votes to third parties but none of these shifts are enough to reverse Labour’s comfortable lead over the PN.

South east is red, Gozo is blue

The PL has consolidated its dominance in the South-eastern region, where its support has increased from 44.5% in March to 53.5% now. In this region the PN trails far behind at just 24.4%. This region includes a number of Labour strongholds including Żejtun, Żurrieq and Birżebbuġa.

But the Labour Party is facing some problems in the South Harbour area, which includes the Cottonera. Compared to March the party has lost three points, even if it remains dominant with 46.3% compared to the PN’s 33%.

Labour also manages to make inroads in central Malta with the party enjoying an 8-point lead over the PN in the North Harbour region, which includes a mix of localities ranging from Labour-leaning Qormi to PN strongholds like Sliema and more balanced localities like Birkirkara.

In contrast, the PN is now leading by six points in the Northern region (which includes St Paul’s Bay and Mosta) and by 10 points in the Western region, which includes Rabat, Siġġiewi, Dingli and Attard.

But the PN’s most coveted prize remains Gozo where the party has an 11.6-point lead, which, however is down from 14 points in March.

Abstention is highest in the Northern region (28.6%) and lowest in the South Harbour (15.7%). Third parties also score best in the Northern region (6.9%).

It is important to note that results for regional and other breakdowns are only indicative due to the substantially higher margin of error in these subgroups.

PL leads in all age groups

The survey shows Labour leading in all age groups but its lead is smallest among 16- to 35-year-olds where it leads by just 3.2 points. The PL’s lead increases slightly to 3.5 points among 36- to 50-year-olds and peaks at 8.8 points among 51- to 65-year-olds. But among pensioners Labour’s gap drops to five points.

This suggests that labour is now strongest among people in the final stage of their working lives.

Abstention peaks among 36- to 50-year-olds, amongst which 27.9% will not be voting. This is even slightly higher than the abstention rate among 16- to 35-year-olds (25.3%).

A breakdown by gender shows the parties neck and neck among women but the PL is leading by a substantial nine points among men.

PN ahead among tertiary educated

The PL now enjoys a strong 10-point lead among the post-secondary educated. This is an electorally strategic category, which includes people who continued their studies beyond secondary level in non-university institutions like MCAST.

This category, which shifted to Labour before the 2013 election remains pivotal for its success.

On the other hand, the PN leads by 13 points among the tertiary educated, a category which always leaned blue but which now includes 8% who will vote for third parties and 28% who will not vote.

The PL also leads by 13 points among the secondary educated and by 11 points among those with a primary level of education—comprised mostly of elderly people.

TRUST BAROMETER

Robert Abela has 7-point lead over Alex Borg

In a head-to-head confrontation, Robert Abela is trusted with running the country by 43.5% of voters, against 36.4% who trust Alex Borg.

The gap between the two leaders (7.1 points) is now only slightly higher than that between the two parties (6.3 points).

Compared to MaltaToday’s March survey, both leaders have seen a small decrease in their trust rating amidst a two-point increase of those who trust neither leader. But while Abela loses 0.6 points, Borg loses 1.3 points.

The survey also shows that both leaders are trusted by the vast majority of their respective party voters—while 96.9% of current PL voters trust Abela, 99.2% of PN voters trust Borg.

Abela’s trust rating among PL voters has only increased by two points since March, while Borg’s trust rating among PN voters has shot up by a whopping 12 points. This suggest that the Nationalist campaign focussed on Alex Borg has rallied the party voting base behind the leader.

But worryingly for the PN, the survey still shows that current non-voters are more likely to trust Abela than Borg. While the vast majority of them (71.2%) trust neither of the two leaders, only 8.1% trust Borg while 20.7% trust Abela. This suggests that Labour has more room to grow if it succeeds in persuading disengaged voters who trust Abela more than Borg, to go out and vote.

The survey shows both leaders making some inroads among 2022 election voters of the opposing party. While 7.6 % of PL voters in 2022 now trust Borg, 6% of PN voters trust Abela. The percentage of former PN voters who trust Abela (6%) is double the percentage who actually shift to the PL (3.3%).   This also means that Labour may have room to grow among this category of lukewarm pale blue voters. 

Abela and Borg lead in three regions each

As has been the trend in previous surveys Abela is leading Borg by very substantial margins in the South-eastern region (31.4 points) and the South Harbour (16.8points).

Significantly, Abela also leads by nine points in the traditionally PN-leaning North Harbour region and trails Borg by only 2.8 points in the Northern region.

Significantly, in the Northern region, which includes major towns like St Paul’s Bay and Mosta, the gap between the two leaders (2.8 points) is substantially lower than the PN’s six-point lead.

Apart from his small lead in the Northern region, Borg enjoys a strong lead in two other regions—the Western region and Gozo. In the Western region, which includes towns like Rabat, Attard, Żebbuġ and Siġġiewi, Borg leads Abela by 8.2 points, while the PN leads Labour by 9.5 points.

Borg enjoys his strongest advantage in Gozo—his home district—where he leads Abela by a remarkable 9.6 points. This is lower than the PN’s own 12-point lead over the PL.

These breakdowns are only indicative due to a considerably higher margin of error among sub groups but largely confirm trends in previous surveys.

Abela more trusted by all age groups 

The survey also shows Abela leading in all age groups but enjoys the highest trust lead (12.1 points) among those aged between 51 and 65. This category includes people in the final stages of their work career and who are likely to have adult children.

Significantly, among 16- to 35-year-olds Abela is significantly more popular than his party. While Abela leads Borg by seven points in this category, the PL leads the PN by just 3.2 points.

The gap between the two leaders is smallest among 36- to 50- year-olds, where Abela leads Borg by 4.5 points. Among pensioners Abela is also leading by six points.

The highest percentage of voters who trust neither leader is found among 36- to 50-year-olds (35.5%).

A breakdown by gender also shows Abela leading by nearly four points among women and by a more substantial 11 points among men.

The survey confirms previous trends showing Abela leading Borg by a substantial margin among secondary educated voters (11.1 points), the primary educated (10.8 points) and the post-secondary educated (12.1 points), while Borg leads by 9.5 points among the tertiary educated.