Divorce | MT Survey shows gap narrowing between pro, anti-divorce camps

The first MaltaToday survey to ask the divorce referendum question as approved by parliament last month shows the yes campaign leading by 7 percentage points.

But compared to MaltaToday’s last survey held last month before the motion calling for the referendum was approved by parliament, support for divorce has dipped by 11 percentage points. For the first time in the past year, the pro-divorce camp falls short of an absolute majority.

But the losses for the yes campaign are not translated in any gains for the no camp, which has also seen its support slip by two points.

Instead the decrease in yes voters is corresponded by a 10-point increase in undecided voters and a two-point increase in those intending not to vote.

600 respondents were interviewed in the survey carried out over the past two weeks. This represents a doubling of the usual 300 respondent sample, cutting the margin of error from +/-5.7% to +/-4%.

Significantly the sharpest drop in support for divorce is registered among respondents who voted for the Nationalist Party in the 2008 general election.

Among this category, support for divorce dropped by 11 points, opposition to divorce increased by 6 points and undecided respondents increased by 5 points.

This suggests that support for divorce among Nationalist voters has slipped following parliament’s approval of a Labour-sponsored motion which was approved thanks to the vote of two Nationalist backbenchers but was opposed by the Prime Minister who wanted a more generic question for the referendum.

On the other hand, among Labour voters support for divorce has remained stable at 75% while opposition to divorce has dropped by 2 points.

The survey also suggests a moderately high turnout for the referendum with 76% replying that they will surely or probably vote in the referendum. A further 11% say that they will decide on whether to vote on the spur of the day. Only 9% will probably or surely not vote in the referendum.

The survey dispels the idea that anti-divorce voters are more likely to vote in the referendum.

This idea was reinforced by previous MaltaToday surveys showing ‘no’ voters more likely to consider divorce as one of their two top national concerns.

But the latest survey shows that while 86% of ‘yes’ voters will surely or probably vote, the same intention is expressed by 84% of ‘no’ voters.

Moreover while among ‘no’ voters 7% claimed that they would probably not vote, only 2% of ‘yes’ voters expressed the same intention. This suggests that there is greater hostility to the referendum process among the no camp than among the yes camp.

But ‘yes’ voters are more likely to decide on the day whether to vote or not.

While 10% of ‘yes’ voters would decide whether to vote or not on the spur of the day, only 5% of no voters expressed the same intention.

Significantly among the undecided nearly 60% replied that they will probably or surely vote in the referendum. This makes winning over this category crucial in determining the referendum outcome.

Nationalist voters are slightly keener to vote in the referendum. But while Labour voters are more likely to say that they will decide whether to vote or not on the day of the referendum, Nationalist voters are more likely to say that they will probably not vote.

Support for divorce remains higher among the youngest age group (18-34) and lowest among over 55 year olds. Among the youngest age group only a fourth are opposed to divorce.

The survey shows that support for divorce is highest among males aged between 18 and 34 (55%) and lowest among females aged over 55 years old (29%).