PL brims with confidence as PN’s slow start fuels up

Labour Party canvassers are expecting their party to win the general election with a substantial margin, leaving party strategists worried the overconfidence could backfire. 

With the first week of the election campaign over, for PL canvassers and functionaries the discussion is not whether the party will win but by how much. 

This attitude was bolstered yesterday with the publication of Vincent Marmara’s survey, which gave the PL an average advantage of around 28,000 votes. 

A canvasser for one of the ministers, who spoke to MaltaToday on condition of anonymity to be able to speak frankly, said internal polling was giving the PL a strong advantage. He was speaking to this newspaper before the Marmara survey was out. 

“We are well ahead,” he said, adding that the cohort of undecided voters was not big enough to swing things around. 

Indeed, based on the numbers published yesterday by Marmara, even if all the 12.6% undecided voters captured by the survey were to vote PN, a very unlikely possibility, the party would only manage 49.5%, giving it a very tight victory. Marmara’s results are based on a turnout of 80%, which means that for the PN, convincing those who do not want to vote remains crucial. 

A worrying overconfidence  

The canvasser admitted his confidence in Labour’s victory was boosted in the first week of the campaign by what he described as the Nationalist Party’s slow start. “They seem disorganised and unprepared,” the canvasser said. 

The same sentiment was expressed by another canvasser for a different minister, who insisted there was no comparison between the PL’s campaign and the PN’s. 

But this overconfidence has party strategists worried. “My concern is that some MPs and their canvassers are too confident of victory and that sentiment gets transmitted down to ordinary voters, making it even harder to convince past PL voters, who do not want to vote, to actually go out and vote,” a senior party functionary, speaking on condition of anonymity, told MaltaToday. 

He acknowledged the PN’s campaign did not get off to a good start but noted that Alex Borg’s performance during the Workers’ Day rally in Lija was good. 

“When the competition appears absent from the race as the PN was in the first three days it creates overconfidence, which breeds complacency, and that is something the PL cannot afford even if all polls are putting it ahead,” the functionary said. 

Indeed, on Friday, during the Workers’ Day mass meeting at Castille Square in Valletta, Deputy Prime Minister Ian Borg emphasised the PL was the “underdog” in the election because it will be asking people to trust it for a fourth consecutive term—a historical record if it does happen. “We need to work with humility,” Borg cautioned. 

A slow start 

The feeling that the PN did not hit the ground running is not misplaced, although by Friday the campaign did gain traction and the party looked organised in Lija. 

On the first day of the campaign the PN did not unveil proposals, giving the PL a field day to set the agenda with its person-centric proposals targeting a range of interest groups—parents, parents-to-be, young people, first-time property buyers, families wanting to buy their second home, pensioners, disabled persons and their families. 

On Wednesday, the second day of the campaign, PN leader Alex Borg went AWOL on journalists when he visited a maritime school without inviting the media. It was only in the evening that Borg then unveiled the party’s first set of proposals targeting the health sector—new hospitals in Gozo and north of Malta, extension to Mater Dei and expansion of Paola Hub into a hospital, all cancer medication provided free on national health service, stipends raised to minimum wage for healthcare students, and a smart watch grant. 

The PN continued emphasising its health-related proposals throughout the week, culminating on Friday with a proposal to site a national health park at Selmun Palace. 

The PN’s approach to the campaign has left some inside Labour questioning whether this is strategic and intended as a contrast to the PL’s polished, expensive campaign, or the result of unpreparedness. 

“It’s probably a bit of both,” a source close to the PN told MaltaToday. “The party appears to have been caught unprepared despite the general feeling that an election was around the corner, but the raw appeal may be a positive unintended consequence.” 

Underdogs and hope 

Nonetheless, in its Friday Workers’ Day rally in Lija, the PN appeared more organised than it has ever been with a relatively young and energetic crowd up front, wearing t-shirts with the campaign slogan, Nifs Ġdid (A Fresh Start) and holding cards with the strapline Alex 2026. 

The campaign also included a bus bedecked with the repurposed PN emblem, reminiscent of the 1996 Labour campaign bus Ċittadin Mobile. 

In his speech, Alex Borg repeatedly emphasised the party was prepared and insisted the PN was the “underdog” in the race. Pre-empting the Marmara survey, he urged supporters not to be disheartened by poll results and asked them to each convince one other person to vote PN. Borg’s demeanour projected hope. 

The PN’s resilience will be tested harder by a more polished Labour campaign as the days and weeks roll forward towards election day on 30 May. 

Meanwhile, uncommitted voters will be watching, dissecting and evaluating both campaigns, waiting to be convinced whether they will vote, and if yes, who to trust.