After the super-majority, the comfortable one

Robert Abela

Robert Abela won an unprecedented fourth term and with a comfortable margin of around 22,000 votes. But the era of the supermajority is over, as the Maltese political system has shifted back to the ‘old normal’ of more restricted majorities. What does this mean for the prime minister?

1. Banking on historical firsts

Robert Abela will take credit for an unprecedented fourth victory, which no previous party leader has ever accomplished in Maltese history. In this way, he gained his place in history.

Truth be told, winning a fourth term was an achievement, considering the wear and tear of keeping power for 13 long years. But from now onwards, the going will get tougher, with the prospect of change in the next election becoming more plausible.

But Abela can’t hide the fact that the expectations of his supporters were sky high, galvanised by the surveys by the Times of Malta and Vincent Marmara, which showed Labour winning with a 30,000-vote majority.

This sensation was also betrayed by the negative reaction of some party supporters to MaltaToday’s surveys showing a more comfortable but less overwhelming 18,000-vote victory. The reality is that Abela still won comfortably, but he can’t hide the fact that the impression over the past month was that Labour was not just fighting to win, but also to minimise losses and keep the Nationalists in a state of disarray.

The reality is that the PN has halved the gap and now starts its bid for the next election with a reduced gap which, unlike that in 2022, can be reversed. The PN may start sounding more like a government in waiting from now on.

2. The impact on Abela’s leadership

Internally, Abela’s position in the party is not threatened in any way but the reduced gap dents his aura of invincibility. Fear of a downward spiral could dominate the next five years and this could trigger paranoia. Talk about who would succeed him as Labour leader will become more intense in the coming months, with potential successors starting to test the ground. With the risk of losing the next election no longer a remote possibility, Labour may even be tempted to consider a renewal of the leadership before then. The never-defeated Abela could call it a day midway through the legislature, paving the way for a successor who would be fresher than the PN leader.  Moreover, the party will also have to ask questions about why it has lost a large number of votes. Any honest analysis will have to consider Abela’s role and missteps in the campaign. Unlike Lawrence Gonzi after 2008, when his government won a one-seat majority, Abela has the comfort of a larger victory—five seats. But the reduced parliamentary majority could invigorate rebel backbenchers if these are not taken on board.

3. Time to rediscover the party’s soul

Any internal analysis in the PL has to consider fundamental questions about the party’s identity and what it stands for. But it will be very difficult for such a discussion to take place while the party remains in power.

Normally such reflection takes place within parties driven back into Opposition. Whether the party will conduct such a diagnosis remains doubtful, considering the risk of internal divisions emerging in public. Yet, in the absence of internal discussion the party’s identity crisis could become more acute.

The campaign has already exposed tension between the party’s social democratic identity and some of its grass roots’ xenophobic instincts. The party is also facing increased criticism from more principled socialists.

4. Civil society is a winner

The result will embolden not just the Opposition but also civil society movements as well as lobby groups, which will have more leverage in an electoral landscape, where losing a couple of thousand votes could cost an election.

Civil society and the media do not compete with the PL and the PN for power, but they have the power to shift public discourse. Labour has often ignored this by resorting to bullying its way in the wake of its supermajorities. So far, this instinct was somewhat tempered by the fear of losing its supermajority.

But now this arrogance has to be tempered by the prospect of losing power. To neutralise this factor, Labour may choose to reach out and build new alliances on those themes where sections of civil society are closer to it than the PN.

Overall, the result may have a humbling effect on Labour, which could reinvigorate it. But it could also make Labour even more paranoid and inward looking, as happened to the Gonzi administration after 2008.

Alex Borg

Short of a near impossible victory the best result for Alex Borg would have been retaining, or further closing, the 9,000-vote gap between the PL and PN in the 2024 MEP elections. His worst nightmare would have been losing by more than 30,000 votes, a result which would have made him resign or face the prospect of remaining a lame duck, the same as Bernard Grech before him.

For Borg, the result comes somewhere in between total defeat and a near miss, leaving his leadership intact and many in his party hopeful but not necessarily one which will surely win the next election. What does this mean for Alex Borg’s prospects?

1. A loss is always a loss

Alex Borg had made it clear that his aim was winning the election, not simply reducing the gap. Borg managed to convince some of his supporters that this was possible and even likely.

Surely, Borg is no imbecile. He knew that a victory was very unlikely but he also knew that to reduce the gap one has to sound and be seen as a winner. By the end of the campaign the message had filtered down to the grassroots. Some pundits on social media even doubted surveys indicating a clear Labour victory. Some of these may now be disappointed and add Borg to the list of PN leaders who failed to make it. But for many others Borg will remain the only plausible leader and one who has come a long way in restoring his party’s fortunes.

He had only seven months to prove himself as a prime minister in waiting. In this short space of time, he managed to energise his base and apparently attract a small shift from Labour. Still, he can’t hide the fact that the party has lost by a greater margin than in the MEP election, where it lost by a 9,000-vote margin. While the comparison can’t be overlooked, it is worth remembering that MEP elections are a different kettle of fish, considering that in these elections voters are not choosing who will govern them but five MEPs to represent them in Brussels.

2. Borg starts from a substantial deficit

Unlike Joseph Muscat after his party’s 2008 defeat, Borg starts with two disadvantages. His party still lost by 22,000 votes and not by a mere 1,500 votes. Moreover, like Simon Busuttil and Bernard Grech before him, he has still lent his face to defeat. But he can also take credit for one of the largest swings in electoral history. In reality, had this shift occurred in any election before 2013, when majorities were under the 13,000-mark, Borg would have become prime minister.

3. The impact on his leadership

By halving the gap, Alex Borg’s position in the party is now solid and is unlikely to be challenged. He has also energised the base. His position would have been far stronger had he lost by less than 10,000 votes, but with the PN lacking any plausible alternative to its new young leader, it is likely to remain stable. He now has plenty of time to reorganise his party, shape its identity, and create a government in waiting. In reality, the greatest problem the PN had in this election was the weakness of the front bench.

4. Borg’s limited talent pool

The election will not necessarily address this problem since those elected still hail from a restricted pool of talent. But rising on the crest of the party’s best result since 2008, Borg may find more capable people willing to jump on his cart.

Moreover, as a plausible prime minister in 2031, Borg may also attract more money for his party. Obviously, this comes with new problems, as the party will become more of an option for unprincipled careerists and shady money from businesses investing in a sort of protection racket. Borg’s fibre will be tested by his ability to keep momentum without compromising integrity.