Living in interesting times

The traditional festive season has always brought a lull in political activities. The usual political truce was observed to a large extent by both political parties and, for good measure, overshadowed by the Omicron onslaught. But that does not mean that our politicians have been sleeping. More so the Prime Minister, who kept himself busy altering the shape of his parliamentary group.

One sure thing is that we are now in an election year. However, I hardly recall an election year when the result of the people’s vote was so predictable.

The election winner is practically a foregone conclusion. What is not is what happens afterwards!

I do not know when the PM will blow the whistle, but it looks that it will be rather earlier than later. COVID support has been extended just up to January, and all hell will break loose on the energy front in March when our current buying agreement expires. So far, the government could throw money at all the problems it faced but the battle against COVID has drained all the surpluses we had accumulated in the last years. The national debt burden is now at the same level where Lawrence Gonzi had left it, when the PL had insisted that that Malta was in financial ruin.

It was not and I do not think that the finances of the nation are in a dangerous state, but it is a sure fact that the party is over. COVID support has to be reined in, petrol, diesel and electricity prices will have to be revised and somehow the cost of living, already rising fast, will hit most of what we consume – that is imports – much harder than in other countries with which we compete in one way or another. The biblical seven years of plenty are definitely over.

And how is our political class tackling this? Of course, all the eyes of the political parties are on the election. Amazingly as it may seem, this is the first election that I can recall when the outcome was such a foregone conclusion... but I suspect that the aftermath is going to be interesting... verging on the exciting.

There is nothing new on the PN front, of course. The PN have been treading water for some years now and its internal factions seem to have called a truce until the election. To many it seems that a part of its popular vote has reneged the PN for good. What will happen after a third electoral disaster in a row is anybody’s guess, although it is likely to lead to more panic and more hopelessness. Last time around there was a reaction against the party establishment. This time it will be worse. A split between its conservative and liberal blocs is not just a mere possibility. It could happen.

On the other hand, no one should be fooled into thinking that Labour is having a smooth run-in for the election. What is pretty obvious is that Robert has been grabbing every opportunity to strengthen his power base, especially in the Labour parliamentary group. He has been methodic and determined, pushing so many Labour MPs to give up their seat by any means, whether fortuitous, engineered or forced. Many politicians who were elected on the PL ticket in 2017 have prematurely met their fate because of Robert Abela’s rapid restructuring of the PL. But Labour’s night of long knives will come after the next election, and after the appointment of the new Cabinet.

We can only wait and see, but if Abela’s musical chairs game in his parliamentary group is some sort of a guide, the Muscat supporters are in for a hard time.

However – and this is the nasty bit – the PL parliamentary group is one thing and the PL grassroots is quite another kettle of fish. It is a well-known fact that this is where Joseph Muscat reigns. He has given the PL grassroots two massive landslides after 25 years in the desert, splashed money on all friends and even some foes, and employed hundreds of persons of trust, many of whom are a pretty useless lot. Everybody knows that his popularity is still strong and – if he finds his back to the wall – can be still used effectively.

And in a recent interview on The Sunday Times, he left Robert Abela in no doubt, that he will re-enter the political scene if he is provoked – whatever that means.

Would this lead to a split in the Labour Party? If anyone can steal votes from the Labour grassroots it is Joseph Muscat. Will Abela take the necessary steps he has to take to put his ship on the straight and narrow course and risk a split?

And then there is the mess the Labour administration got itself into with the USA. Will a newly elected Robert Abela take this bull by the horns? Recently the United States has shown us a yellow card: former minister Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri – Muscat’s former aide or whatever – are not welcome in the USA.

So here we are. In the year 2022, with our PM being warned by his predecessor not to bother him, and with the US flashing yellow cards at FATF greylisted Malta.

No wonder that Robert Abela is doing everything to expand his faithful base in the PL. In this situation will Robert Abela be able to shake off Joseph Muscat’s shadow? Or will it lead to an inevitable showdown within the PL?

At the end of the day, it seems that both political parties seem to be moving towards a crossroads after this year’s election. The Maltese political scenario is similar to that before the ‘Mani Pulite’ radical restructuring of what was the traditional Italian political scene. Something has got to give.

In the current situation there are too many people who do not like either of the two parties in their current state and the turnout of this year’s election could be less than what is considered ‘normal’ in Malta. The election could well be the last one that returns only two parties in the House of Representatives, since Malta became an independent country 57 years ago.

There is no doubt that, like it or not, we are – as the Chinese curse goes – living in interesting times!