Should I stay or should I go?

The Nationalist Party is obliged to resolve the current political impasse in order to respect the legitimate political mandate it obtained in 2008, however this should not come at the expense of the country's peace of mind.

The more the PN harps about the political mandate it obtained in 2008 while at the same making it out as if the political stalemate was created by the Opposition, the more it sounds like Berlusconi. For months, Berlusconi's government kept on governing without having a working majority in parliament. Before Berlusconi's resignation/dismissal, the Italians were ruled by a government which did not legislate because it was busy tendering to its internal divisions and sex scandals.

This is not the case yet in Malta, but the Nationalist Party's intent to initiate a leadership contest when nobody in the party is questioning Gonzi's leadership (apart from Franco Debono who tendered his resignation from the party months ago) is pretty futile.

The move will win the PN some time. The party will gain enough time to get ready for early elections, however if the party intends to win time to prolong the deadlock and hold elections after summer or beyond, it could spectacularly backfire.

All odds are stacked against the PN to be re-elected. If the Prime Minister calls early elections before summer the party will go into elections on bad terms with Franco Debono and possibly other backbenchers. A divided party rarely wins elections, and if anything the Franco Debono saga has illustrated the shortcomings of GonziPN's 'rainbow' coalition.

If elections are held after summer or even as late as next year, the probability is that the stability question will never fade away completely. If this is the case, Europe might well be in a recession and the country will be exasperated, the economy on a standstill and a government living in fear (unless Franco Debono resigns from Parliament).

Although Gonzi's leadership style and the sleaze machine are the real reason for Franco Debono's outburst, Debono remains the key point of contention. The ball is in Debono's court. Gonzi said that if he is re-elected as PN leader he expects Debono to shut up, respect the party's will and toe the line. If that is the case, then Gonzi can either call early elections with Debono on board, or hold on to the end. Both are very risky.

Holding on to the end and calling elections after summer or even next year is too risky because Europe and Malta might be at a standstill.

Calling elections before summer, with Franco Debono on board is also risky because Debono's conversion would be close to unbelievable. Any declaration of loyalty towards Gonzi would be hard to believe after saying that he will serve anyone but Gonzi and that he should resign.

On the other hand Debono could accept Gonzi's re-election as undisputed party leader and resign from parliament. Debono does not seem too keen to exit the limelight and he will not go down without a fight. However, this would give the chance to Gonzi to reinvent himself and give the PN a fighting chance.

Franco Debono's only other option would be to ignore the probable decision of the PN councillors to re-elect Gonzi and remain a thorn in Gonzi's backside. Debono does not seem to be keen on voting against government and it bring it down. He does not want to go down in history books as the maverick MP who brought Gonzi down.

That leaves us with the scenario of Debono abstaining in Parliament on money bills and voting with the Opposition on matters close to his heart, such as party financing and justice reform. This would not only embarrass government but it will effectively mean that government is a lame duck because it cannot legislate and cannot fulfil its legitimate mandate.  

Whatever happens with Gonzi's Ba'ath party-style re-election, Debono remains the kingmaker intent to keep the country guessing; because he is not too keen on giving up the limelight but is equally reluctant to call the bluff and bring government down.