An election in the shadow of war

On 20 February 2022, Robert Abela told Labour supporters gathered at the Floriana Granaries that the general election would be held on 26 March.

The prime minister, who was in search of his first electoral mandate, blew the whistle and unveiled the Labour Party’s slogan, Malta Flimkien (Malta Together). But four days later, in the early morning of 24 February, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Suddenly, the election campaign was hijacked by a war in the heart of Europe that would have repercussions on energy prices and global supply chains. At a time when Malta was exiting its COVID protocols, the war framed how the election campaign unfolded.

Abela portrayed himself as the leader, who captained the country through a pandemic ensuring that Malta emerged relatively unscathed. The skills gained and policies adopted to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, he would argue, were the recipe for managing the country through a period of international turmoil caused by the Ukraine war.

Roll forward four years almost to the day when Malta voted and the country finds itself on the cusp of another election, in the midst of another war.

The only difference between then and now is that the Iran war unleashed by the US and Israel last month could be more destabilising globally. With Iran retaliating by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and targeting oil and gas infrastructure in neighbouring states, the disruption to global energy and fertiliser supplies is significant. And the impact will ripple through to consumers in the form of higher prices for fuel, energy and food.

While Maltese consumers may be shielded from fuel and energy hikes as a result of government’s decision to maintain subsidies introduced four years ago, the Iran war could have heftier global repercussions than the Ukraine war.

This is the backdrop to the decision Abela has to make as to when he should call the election. Abela may still harbour the wish to present his administration’s last budget in October before calling an election for March 2027. In doing so, Abela would have the honour of being the first Labour prime minister since 1981 to take his administration to its full five-year term.

Nonetheless, the Iran war may disrupt that timing.

Unless a sudden cessation of hostilities is announced now, which may re-jig the scenario, Abela may also try and take advantage of the Iran war by presenting himself as the ‘safe pair of hands’ who can steer the ship of state in these troubled times. It would provide a contrast with the younger, relatively untested Nationalist Party leader Alex Borg.

The signs of an election

But why are we even talking of an impending election?

The strongest hint yet came from Abela last Sunday when he referenced the electoral manifesto during his Sunday morning speech. Many understood his comment to mean that the general election is round the corner.

Additionally, sources close to the PL had told MaltaToday that the strategy team was in place at party headquarters in Hamrun, laying down the groundwork so that Abela would have the widest leeway possible to call the election when he deems fit.

And there have been other signs as well. Labour candidates having been vying for the past few weeks for column inches in newspapers, putting up social media posts to push their cause and setting up constituency offices.

Ministers have also been particularly active in the social media sphere, uploading short videos of themselves announcing initiatives, visiting ongoing works linked to their portfolios and their districts, drinking tea with constituents, shaking hands with sportspeople and engaging with pensioners. The flurry of activity suggests ministers are on tenterhooks as they vie for increased visibility.

On a less visible but no less important level is the ongoing activity at grass roots level in preparation for the electoral process with the engagement of party agents and assistant electoral commissioners.

To top it all up is the amount of government spending on its Shape Your Space campaign—the consultation process asking for feedback on plans to turn Manoel Island, Fort Campbell and White Rocks into national parks—and the Malta Vision 2050 campaign. These are signs of a government wanting to push its agenda by publicising a feel-good message.

Abela’s options

The prime minister may want to use the Freedom Day celebrations organised by the Labour Party next Monday as the platform to call the election. But there is a snag since Freedom Day comes at the start of Holy Week leading up to Easter and it is unlikely Abela would want to disrupt these celebrations. This does not mean that electioneering won’t take place on Easter Sunday during the traditional runs with the statue of the Risen Christ as candidates turn out in droves to mingle with the crowds.

But if he decides to call an election, Abela will do so after Easter, making it possible to have an election in May or early June.

The shortest timeframe for an election to be held is 33 days from the dissolution of parliament. It has also been normal practice for elections to be held on Saturday.

If Abela goes to the president on Easter Monday—6 April—the earliest the general election can be held will be Saturday 9 May.

If the election is called on any other day between 7 April and 13 April, the earliest it can be held is on Saturday 16 May. If parliament is dissolved on any day between 14 April and 20 April, the next plausible election date will be 23 May. If dissolution takes place on any day between 21 April and 27 April, the election will be held at the earliest on 30 May.

If Abela decides to follow Joseph Muscat’s 2017 playbook and blow the whistle on 1 May, Workers’ Day, the earliest date for the election will be 6 June.

It is unlikely the election will be held later than 6 June given the onset of summer, a time when many start planning their holidays and boaters start taking back to the sea.

Abela has a big enough time window at his disposal to observe how the Iran war progresses and make his decision accordingly. The only certainty at this stage is that if an election is held within the next couple of months, it will be the second consecutive electoral appointment in the shadow of a war.