Population could fall to 252,000 if migration stops, Central Bank warns

Malta’s population could fall by 56% to around 252,000 by the end of the century if migration were to stop completely after 2025, according to a Central Bank analysis of revised Eurostat population projections.

The zero-migration scenario is one of several alternative scenarios examined in the study, EUROPOP25: Malta’s Revised Population Outlook, by Senior Economist Lynn Cumbo and Economist Liam Micallef.

The study examines Eurostat’s latest EUROPOP2025 long-term population projections and compares them with the previous EUROPOP2023 projections, Eurostat’s 2023 long-term population projection exercise.

Under the baseline scenario, Malta’s population is still expected to grow substantially over the coming decades, but at a slower pace than previously projected.

The population is projected to rise from 574,250 in 2025 to a peak of 766,348 in 2073 before falling to 723,710 by 2100.

Overall, this represents a 21% increase, or around 150,000 people, between 2025 and 2100.

Migration drives population growth

The main reason for the downward revision in the latest projections is a reassessment of future migration flows.

Eurostat’s baseline scenario assumes around 32,000 fewer net migrants cumulatively between 2026 and 2050 compared with EUROPOP2023.

Annual net migration is projected to decline steadily from around 10,600 people in 2025 to 3,450 by 2100.

Population growth between 2025 and 2050 is projected to average 0.9% annually, down from 1.2% under EUROPOP2023. The resulting population projection for 2050 is around 3% lower than in the previous projection.

The study notes that Eurostat models migration using historical flow averages together with a labour replacement feedback mechanism. The projections do not incorporate climate change or environmental impacts as variables.

Elderly could outnumber working-age population

The consequences of stopping migration would extend beyond the overall size of the population.

Under the zero-migration scenario, Malta’s population would fall to around 530,000 by 2050 before declining by 56% to 252,000 by 2100.

The old-age dependency ratio, measuring the number of people aged 65 and over relative to those aged between 15 and 64, would rise from 26.6% in 2025 to 104% by 2100.

This would mean that the number of residents aged 65 and over would exceed the number of working-age residents.

By contrast, a scenario involving 33% higher non-EU immigration would see Malta’s population reach a peak of 955,229 in 2081.

Fertility rate falls to 1.01

The revised population outlook is also affected by Malta’s exceptionally low fertility rate.

The 2025 baseline total fertility rate is estimated at 1.01 children per woman, down from the 1.15 assumed in EUROPOP2023 and below the EU average of 1.31.

This is the lowest fertility rate among EU member states in the projections.

Age-specific fertility among women aged between 31 and 34 has also fallen to around 70 births per 1,000 women, compared with more than 80 per 1,000 in earlier projection vintages.

The lower fertility starting point is projected to reduce Malta’s population by 16,730 people by 2050, as smaller cohorts of women reach childbearing age.

A scenario involving fertility 20% below the baseline would result in a population around 57,000 lower by 2100.

Slightly lower mortality rates, reflecting higher life expectancy, provide a modest counter-effect and are projected to add 3,625 people to the population by 2050.

Deaths to more than double

The Central Bank analysis concludes that positive net migration remains the main driver of Malta’s projected population growth.

At the same time, the ageing population is expected to result in a substantial increase in deaths.

Annual deaths are projected to rise from around 4,300 in 2025 to around 10,000 by 2100, increasingly outweighing the contribution from natural population growth.

The projections remain dependent on Eurostat’s assumptions and could therefore change if actual migration, fertility and mortality patterns differ from those incorporated in the model.

Meanwhile, National Statistics Office data shows that Malta’s population stood at 588,254 at the end of 2025, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year.

The primary driver behind lower projected population growth in 2025 projections compared to those made in 2023 is attributed to a reduction in expected net migration, incorporating 32,000 fewer net migrants from 2026 to 2050. Rather than reflecting policy interventions, this lower baseline aligns with an observed moderation in Maltese foreign net migration data, further compounded by a record-low baseline fertility rate of 1.01.