Lawrence on the guillotine

The delaying tactics employed by the PN during the house committee meeting on Monday is not intended to avoid elections but only postpone them.

The PN is playing for time to be able to regroup, increase the pressure on Franco Debono and prepare for elections. The party is not prepared for early elections and every hour and day gained in parliament will give Austin Gatt, Joe Saliba and Richard Cachia Caruana precious time to gear up the party's electoral machine.

For obvious reasons the forthcoming elections are being compared to the 1998 elections because in both cases early elections were called, government held a one-seat majority and lost the support of a rebel MP. However, a probable early election in 2012 also shares many similarities with the 1996 elections.

For Dom Mintoff read Franco Debono, for Alfred Sant read Joseph Muscat and for Fenech Adami's 'money no problem' accusation read Gonzi's Par idejn sodi slogan.

As was the case in 1996, the Labour Party is now headed by a new leader. In 1996, Joseph Muscat was a budding journalist working for the party's media and a sidekick to then leader Alfred Sant. The PN attacked both for being inexperienced, unqualified and untried.

The similarities between Sant and Muscat go beyond the PN attacks. Both leaders revolutionised the party's image and promised to do things differently. Sant led a corporate campaign and targeted the PN's traditional voters, the middle class and the self-employed. Since replacing Sant in 2008, Muscat has promised an earthquake and targeted disgruntled PN voters and the middle class. Yet, in recent months it seems the PL has shifted its attention from the middle class to the self-employed.   

In 1996 the PN had been in government for nine consecutive years. The current administration has been in power for 14 years. As was the case with the Fenech Adami government, the current administration is out of breath and showing signs of exhaustion. Although Lawrence Gonzi has only been at the helm of the party and government for eight years, he is showing the same fatigue displayed by his predecessor Eddie Fenech Adami in 1996.

One of the main issues in the 1996 electoral campaign was corruption and the 'friends of friends' (ħbieb tal- ħbieb) network that pervaded the system of public goods and services. This time around Franco Debono is accusing Gonzi of being surrounded by an "evil clique" and being held hostage by a small group of persons. Although Joseph Muscat has not yet gone to the extreme of touring the country on a cittadin-mobil, he is certainly exploiting Debono's accusations.

However there is a notable difference in the policies and issues which dominated the 1996 campaign and the issues which will dominate the forthcoming election. The 1996 campaign was mainly characterised by accusations of corruption, arrogance, VAT, cash registers, hunting and financial mismanagement. 2012 will be all about Franco Debono, job creation, stability, utility bills, the eurozone crisis and the honoraria saga.

Last week, Gonzi likened the PL's motion for a no-confidence vote to a guillotine for the lack of discussion time allotted. However, if Gonzi ends up on the losing side as Fenech Adami did in 1996, it might be him who ends on the guillotine. Fenech Adami tendered his resignation soon after losing the 1996 election. His resignation was ultimately refused by the party and this decision was vindicated as he ended up leading the party to a resounding victory merely 18 months later.

If the PN had to lose the forthcoming election, much of the blame will fall on Gonzi's shoulders. The losing party leader's resignation is almost obligatory. However the party's reaction depends on whether it suffers a huge loss or not. If the PN had to lose by a small margin, Gonzi might argue that he is the best man to lead the party in opposition. But his position will be untenable whatever the margin of defeat is.

He has burnt too many bridges and let the sleaze machine loose. Since taking over the party's leadership, Gonzi has distanced the party from Castille. Whilst Fenech Adami led the party and government with an iron fist, the party and Castille were never divorced under his leadership. At times, Gonzi's office at Castiile seems to act separately and independently from the party in Pietà.

The separation of the party from the state is intrinsically a positive step; but at times Gonzi's OPM and the party seemed to be living on two different planets. There is a complete absence of symbiosis. In some instances I get the impression that PN secretary-general Paul Borg Olivier is as surprised as the rest of the country with Castille's statements and decisions. In contrast, Fenech Adami had a penchant to maintain party wrangling within the party without having an effect on government.

Whatever the outcome of the snap election is, Gonzi seems to have his days numbered. However do not bet on his political adieu. Both Fenech Adami and Sant survived multiple electoral defeats and retained their leadership. An electoral defeat for the PN might be a blessing in disguise if it presents the party with the opportunity for a generational revolution.