[SURVEY] 'No' voters determined to get out and vote, as 'Yes' regains lead

A MaltaToday survey held over the past week shows the ‘yes’ campaign leading the ‘no’ campaign by 8 percentage points.

FULL RESULTS below on Google Docs

But the lead drops to just 3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error, among respondents who are sure of voting on referendum day.

This is a clear indication that the outcome of the referendum will depend on the voter turnout. A low turnout among ‘yes’ voters could still tilt the referendum in favour of the ‘no’ campaign.

The ‘yes’ gains in the survey comes in the wake of a 3-point decrease in undecided and a 5-point drop in no voters.  Moreover, the drop in ‘no’ voters is corresponded by an increase of three points among non-voters.

Point your mouse over the lines to reveal previous data.

The ‘no’ campaign has scored its lowest score ever since MaltaToday started conducting surveys on the divorce issue. This drop in the ‘no’ vote comes in the wake of a hardening of the Church’s stance against divorce, which saw Bishop Mario Grech warning that people who are not loyal to the church’s beliefs should not call themselves Catholics.

Although the ‘yes’ campaign has recovered some ground, their vote is still lower than it was in April. The ‘yes; campaign made significant gains among men and those aged below 54 years, but failed to make any gains among females and those aged over 55 years.

The gender divide

Significantly the survey amplified the gender divide between pro-divorce men and anti-divorce women, already present in previous surveys.

While among women, the No vote still enjoys a 2-point lead over the Yes campaign, among males 47% intend to vote Yes, while only 29% intend to vote No.  

Compared to the previous survey, the Yes vote scores a 9 percentage point gain among males, but remains stable among women. Moreover, while 25% of women are undecided, only 15% of men are in the same state of mind.

But significantly, while 9% of males are intent on not voting, only 6% of women have the same intention. The major difference of opinion between the sexes is found among the 55-plus age group. While males aged over 55 are nearly equally divided between No and Yes voters, among women in this age group, only 20% favour divorce and 48% are against its introduction.

This could be an indication that women aged over 55 are more likely to heed warning made by the Catholic church against voting for divorce and also more concerned on the possibility of being abandoned by their husbands.

The age factor

Divorce remains more popular among those aged under 35 years old and least popular among those aged over 55. 34 to 54 year olds are the most undecided.

Over the past two weeks, the sharpest increase in support for divorce occurred among those aged between 35 and 54, where the Yes vote gained 10 percentage points. 

On the other hand, the No vote registered its sharpest drop among those aged 18 to 34. Among this age group, the number of No voters has decreased by 11 points. But the situation remained practically unchanged among those aged above 55 years of age, except for a 2 percentage point increase in those intending not to vote.

The only category to register an absolute majority for divorce are males aged between 18 and 34, where 55% would vote for its introduction. 

In all age groups women are less likely to support divorce. The only female age group to register a relative majority (49%) for divorce are those aged between 18 and 34. 

The political divide

The No vote has continued to lose ground among Labour voters. Among this category, No voters have now fallen from 11% to 8%. But among this category, the decrease is partially compensated by an increase in non-voters and the undecided rather, than an increase in those voting Yes.

This could be an indication that some Labour voters opposed to divorce will be abstaining in the next week’s referendum, or a reluctance on the part of anti-divorce Labour voters to support the anti-divorce stance adopted by the Nationalist Party.

While the number of Yes voters remained stable among Labour voters, the survey shows a 3 percentage point gain for the yes campaign among Nationalist voters.

Overall, the survey confirms the political rift on this issue, with 64% of Nationalists intending to vote No and 71% of Labourites intending to vote Yes.

Outcome still depends on turnout

For the first time in the past 3 surveys, Yes voters are less certain of voting than No voters. While 68% of Yes voters (down from 71%)  are sure of voting, only 77% of No voters (up from 66%) intend to do likewise.

Over the past two weeks, there has also been a significant change in the No camp: those who will probably not be voting decreased from 5% to just 1%. Since the number of non-voters has actually gone up, this is an indication that a number of No voters in previous surveys have now decided not to vote.

This could be an indication that some potential No voters are sceptical about the referendum. On the other hand, Yes voters were more likely to say that they will be “probably voting” or to decide on the basis of “how they feel on the day” than No voters.

Because of this, among “sure voters” the No campaign trails the Yes campaign by just 3 points. This is another indication that the outcome of the referendum will be determined by  the ability of both sides to convince their voters to go out and vote.

More in Divorce Referendum
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Sarah MT, Should the referendum be a resounding YES, MP's can do very little. They will be prompted, through Parliamentary procedures, whether they prefer their siggu to God. I bet many will be ready to give up their hefty salar and embrace wholeheartedly what they have been preaching all along.
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Back to the 60's indirectly.
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listrina waqfet irigali u il knisja tibda tati irigali biex jigu inies fil knisja. ghax trid tkun ta ezempju biex tati ezempju. issa end of days for you.
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SarahMT is a conservative PN in disguise.
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Joseph Sant
SarahMT who do you think you are fooling. Writing this once is bad enough but pasting it all over the place is a little bit of a giveaway don't you think? My dear, you're as bad as the monsignors - you think we are all stupid!
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Me and my ladies are not bothering. What is the point? Parliament will never pass the law with those fundamentalists in parlieament. Ladies, join us for a BBQ and white siprits binge from 11am at Ghadira beach. Eat drink till late. This is a BBQ is only for emancipated but dissapointed free women who do not need to waste our time voting to appease others. IT is our answer to this ridiculous countries fundamentalists
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Maggoranza kbira (imma wahda enormi) tal-LE nahseb ser tkun....
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Firillu Kbir skond One News dak il-każ ġara fil-Kunvent tal-Kapuċċini tal-Kalkara
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Siehbi fehmawvuci, NAĦQA ridt tghid mhux HANQA. Ħanqa hija meta wiehed jinħanaq. Il-ħmar Jinħaq = Ħanqa
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Who is the head of the Maltese Church?
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well this snap shot not one of the best one. just reminds me of the incredible hulk during one of his transformations. :-) , no offence to all, just try to see the funny side of life. this Divorce issue has turned a bit on the brutesque side now. come on we are in 2011. let us just give our views , with sensible reasoning. and let the people decide for themselves. but it is nauseating wherever I go i find it written on the walls and on people minds YES and NO.
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Onward, Christian soldiers, marching on to war, with the cross of Jesus going on before. Christ, the royal Master, leads against the foe; forward into battle see his banners go! Jerusalem is in heathen hands! Fire and sword! Deus vult! “How shall we know the good from the bad?”, they asked in Languedoc. “Kill them all, God will know his own” he replied.
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Picture of Gozo Bishop Mario Grech..Masquerading the hidden face of the Catholic Church in Malta should be the poster for the future to remember what THEY ARE NOT about, kindness ,love , forgiveness and tolerance. His demeanor in that picture shows what hypocrite he is to what he teaches.." as people can see the hate and viciousness in his pose. Christ didn't threaten us to follow his beliefs; instead he gave us free will to follow our conscience" "The Bishop shows that he is an anathema to what Christ teaches and whom he is supposed to represent on earth",and his expression proves HE IS THE WOLFE IN SHEEP'S CLOTHING.!,
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Adrian Busuttil
They are making a concentrated putch of propaganda, here, on the Times blog, even here: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?sk=group_181223738578078&ap=1
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Issa l-isqfijiet jergghu jigi jitolbu mahfra ghal hnizrijiet li qieghdin jaghmlu , wara dak kollu li ghamel is sur mikiel gonzi fis sittinijiet
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Din il gimgha hija mportanti ghal knisja, mhux biex tohrog ix xjuh jew is sorijiet tal klawsura imma biex tigbor il fidili u tirrassenja ruha mid daqqa li tista taqla.Ma nixtieqx nara l-knisja ssofri min habba ghattitudni tal PN u tal monsinjuri. Il knisja dahlet go sqaq dejjaq hafna. L-Arcisqof li wara hames snin ghadu biss jaf jidhaq ghadu ma hax ir riedni tad djocesi f'idejh imma dawn ghadhom f'idejn il monsinjuri. Sacerdot habib qalli x'differenza kif mexa u kien prudenti l-Arcisqof Mercieca fil kwistkoni ta l-iskejjel.
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It is GOOD to be AWAKE and declare where we stand with the church. We see it as abusive on many levels. . However it is NOT a good idea to JUDGE and wish harm on others no matter what they have done. It is very important for those of us who are beginning to uncover layers upon layers of deceit NOT to be the judges of our abusers. . With or without the Maltese church, we already live in an imperfect world. Besides not all clergy have the same mind set; and not all of them are consciously aware of the harm they inflict on others especially since this has been going on for centuries. . Please let us remember that none of us are faultless in this imperfect world of ours. We have NO God-given right to judge others, but we most certainly have a right to speak our truth. . If Malta has truly evolved as a nation, it will do away with the Vengeful God handed down by the Vatican Church. This is a key issue. The Church still lives in Old Testament times yet preposterously declares that its head is the Vicar of Christ - the key personage in the New Testament. . Let's live the New Testament: FORGIVE; FORGIVE; FORGIVE.... which means UNBINDING ourselves and setting ourselves free from the negative grasp of a destructive insititution.
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Qied sewwa fdan ir ritratt l-isqof ta Ghawdex Mons Mario Grechqisu Hitler xqed TAHSIBHOM in nies li ghadhom ta 50 sena ilu mhux ahjar TARA ir RELIGJUZI li ghandek madwarek kollha lesti biex JABUZAW min ULIEDNA sija jekk huma BNIET sew jekk huma SUBIEN Mons Arcisqof Mario Grech Issa nghid kelma lil PM Dr Lawrence 600 EWRO ZIEDA Gonzi il POPLU ghandu JAGHTIK Risposta fuq dan ir REFERENDUM l Huwa IMXEBBA MIL AMMINISTRAZJONI tieghek billi JIVVOTA KONTRIK u JISFIDUCJAK ghalhekk nappella lil POPLU MALTI biex jaghti RISPOSTA kif HAQQU lil Dr Lawrence 600 EWRO ZIEDA GONZI billi JUEIH LI IL POPLU IMXEBBA MINNU u min certi ministri li ghandu fosthom Dr Tonio Fenech u il KESAHLU l-iehor Dr Austin Gatt dan lest li ma johrog ghal l-elezjoni li JMISS ghalfejn TOHROG Dr Austin Gatt dak li KELLEK TIEHDU HADTU issa naraw xi FROGA ohra gejja min mir RIFORMA ta TRASPORT PUBLIKU dawk il KAROZZI tal linja il godda li huma DOUBLE fejn tahseb li ser IDURU fit TOROQ dojoq taghna bdawn il karozzi ir riforma diga tidher li ser TKUN ZMERGA
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Ma nisthux nuru fehemitna . Jien wahda mill aktar affarijiet li urtatni hi li l knisja tista taghti annullamenti taht diversi forom . Veru li kien hemm min anke ha l-annullament aktar miunn darba ? Mela hekk sew l gvern jrid jonora d divorzju li jinghata minn barra BILFORS ghax hemm minn ghandu l flus imbaghad minn ghaddej minn martirju jibqa jiddamdam .Dan kollu ghax miskin ma ghandux mezzi bizzejjed. Jien minhabba dan biddilt fehemti u ser nivvota bil qalb
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Tidher ghandha xi hmistax -il O'level ta' hdejn l-Isqof
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HANQA TA HMAR MHUX SA TITLA S-SEMA. DAN QED JINKWITA GHAZ JITLEF 6% COMMISSION MILL ANNULAMENTI. IR RISPOSTA JEHODA FIL VOT TAL IVA. IVVOTA IVA SABIEX TGHATI RISPOSTA LILL DAWK IS SANGISUGI LI MINN GHALIHOM GHANDHOM DRITT FUQHEK Y FUQ ID DRITTIJIET CIVILI TIEGHEK. ILLUM QED NARAW KEMM KIEN KORRETT U QALBIENI L-PERIT MINTOFF. NAHSEB AHJAR IMUR JARA X'INHU JIGRI F'ISTITUTI TA' GHAWDEX. ID DIVORZJU MHUX SA JAHQAR LIT-TFAL DAQS L'ABBUZ MENTALI W SESSWALI LI QED ISIR TAHT IMNIEHRU.
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Prosit lil fotografu. Ritratt li jikxef il-maskra. Ma tantx tidher li hierga hniena min dak il-wicc..... u bilhaq mnejn smajnieha din tal-lupu liebes ta' naggha.
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What a piece of work is man ... unless you are the bishop of Gozo. Jaqq! The poor woman next to him looks as if she has been 'knocked out' by what he is saying. Forsi gidmitu xi gremxula bejn saqajh!
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What a piece of work is man ... unless you are the bishop of Gozo. Jaqq! The poor woman next to him looks as if she has been 'knocked out' by what he is saying. Forsi gidmitu xi gremxula bejn saqajh!
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Isabelle Borg
Back to the sixties. But this time "up yours" mgr mullah grech.
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Paul Sammut
With apology to The Beatles. For the benefit of Mario Gee There will be a show tonight on trampoline The Le Le Le will all be there As expected Gee and Cee are there, what a scene Over men and boys hoops and garters Lastly through a hogshead of real fire! In this way Mario Gee will challenge the world! The celebrated Mario Gee. Performs his feat on Saturday at Bishopsgate Dear Paul Cee will smile and sing As dear Mario flies through the ring don't be late Mrs. Joyce Cee assures the public Their production will be second to none And of course Andre the horse dances the waltz-! (Circus organ music) The band begins at ten to six When Mario Gee performs his tricks without a sound And dear old Paul will demonstrate Ten somersets he'll undertake on solid ground Having been some days in preparation A splendid time is guaranteed for all And tonight Mario Gee is topping the bill- Together with Paul he will perform The dance and song How - low - can - you - go.
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It-tfal iwegghu bil-firda... issa jekk din il-firda twassalx ghall-separazzjoni, annulament jew divorzju dik haga ohra. Bid-divorzju ser naghtu cans ta' hajja gdida GHAL MIN IRIDHA. It-tfal taf meta jweggghu l-iktar? Meta tbaghbashom is-sister!!!
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Fegg kaz iehor ta' fastidju fuq il-minorenni minn tac-coqqa. Il-Vatikan wara kritika enormi mid-dinja kollha hareg digriet biex il-knejjes jirraportaw dawn il-kazi mill-ewwel lil pulizija. Milli jidher hawn Malta naqghu u nqumu minn dan id-digriet qiesu ghandna alla ghalina.
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Vote YES for Compassion Vote YES for the power of love which conquers fear Vote YES for Divorce Legislation . And let’s pray fervently for a smooth and total separation of a corrupt and oppressive church from the New State of Malta
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Min ha jivvota LE mhux ha jhalli lil poplu Malti id dritt tal l-ghazla! Il persuna li tkissrila zwieg u qeghda tghix seperata ghanda jkollha ghazla li terga tizzewweg mhux icahadula dan id dritt! Ghalfejn qeghdin timponu tal le fuq il poplu ghal dan id dritt civili! Kuragg hbieb ma nibzghux nimxu kontra l-kurrent meta nafu li qeghdin fis sewwa. Jidhru in nies Genwini min dawk li qeghdin jiffalsifikaw is santi u lin nies kollha f'Malta baghtuwlhom karta bil posta kontra id divorzju. Johorgu hafna mistoqsijiet. Min qieghed johrog eluf kbar ghal kampanja tal le? Min qieghed jiffalsifika is santi? Jiena nghid li l-poplu Malti mhux ha jemmen il qerq imma ha jivvota IVA ghal Ghazla, IVA ghat tolleranza!
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Ghalfejn dan it-thezziz tas-snien u idejn kollu? Perhaps to prove that he is the Mullah!
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Obviously the church has now reached panic stations, relying on intimidation against people to vote the church's way. So they threat their "followers" by withdrawing holy communion. How low can they get. Just cross your fingers behind your back and tell these interfering busybodies that you did vote yes. they cannot prove otherwise. Hardly surprising that atheism is on the increase.
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denise vella
I urge those who are still undecided, do not impose your thoughts on others. Voting 'No' would mean that you will not provide the right tools to those in need. Voting 'Yes' would mean that people who does not need divorce, won't use this tool, but you will give the oppurtunity to others to start a new life with their loved ones....
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The more I hear what the Gozo Bishop has to say the more I convince myself to vote YES. Keep it in mind that this is a civil right we are voting for and everyone knows that getting a divorce does not annull my church marriage. We have to keep in mind that there is a difference between civil and church marriages. On the other hand, as I wrote before, we must all go out and vote YES so as to force the government, who declared being against divorce, get to his senses once again and puts apart all the arrogance towards us Maltese. We all need to push a bit harder so as the YES vote prevails. Good luck to the Yes movement.
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Tal >>>LE<<< BLA RAGUNI. Mhux ta' b'xejn li hafna minnhom evitaw il-mistoqsijiet ta' l-istampa. Kull meta staqsewhom x'hini s-soluzzjoni ghal dawk li z-zwieg taghhom spicca bla ebda cans remot li jista jkun hemm rikonciljazzjoni ma TAWX RISPOSTA WAHDA. Mela m'hemmx RAGUNI biex tivvota LE. Mid-DLAM ghad DAWL. Kontra dak li jidher fil-billboard imdallam tal-LE, huwa fid dlam min ghandu z-zwieg tieghu imkisser. Min ikollu c-cans li jerga jizzewwewg u jsib il-kuntentizza fit-tieni zwieg jibda hajja fid-dawl. Il-loghob sfrenat li hawn u l-ghidut li hawn li se jergghu jinghataw licenzji ghal gaming places huwa nkwetanti. Kulhadd jaf x'effett negattiv dan il-loghob ikollu fuq il-familji maltin. Tghid dan hu l-pjan ta' dawk favur il-familja biex insahhu l-familja, ghax ma smajna xejn dwar dan min ghandhom.
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the more I see people,like this bishop, the more I vote ''YEs'' I was in doubt ,if iI vote or not, but they change my mind, so all my family are voting YES!
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Well the bishop in the photo said that those voting yes for divorce are traitors. if that is the case he is a terrorist. El Bimbo
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Interesting picture...the man in black clenching his fists and getting hot under his collar...the little woman clearly adoring him and freezing in awe. Hehe great choice, MT... the pic's of Fred Flintstone ( anti-divorce youth group ) or of Beppe are an equally great choice. Beppe's complexion appears to be purple...is he choking on something? Or someone confronted him with the 3 annulments obtained by the Adam's family?
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Its a pity that the Church did not read the signs of the Times and plunged its head into the abyss. If the Church loses its credibility, we all stand to loose; being an favour of giving a second chance to unhappy couples, does not mean anti-clerical; it simply means giving a helping hand to that progressive part of the Church that has still a lot to offer to Maltese society. Indeed, why should I be treated like an imbecile because I am a Maltese Catholic, whilst Catholic relatives of mine who live in the UK, Italy and France, are treated with more dignity and understanding and compassion? Are we children of a lesser God?
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My man. So macho. Tyson, Tyson fejn int qieghed? That poor woman is certainly impressed and overawed. What a man. I think he is saying that if you vote YES he will beat the shit out of you. I do not recollect voting for him to lead me to heaven. I was not even asked for an opinion.
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My man. So macho. Tyson, Tyson fejn int qieghed? That poor woman is certainly impressed and overawed. What a man. I think he is saying that if you vote YES he will beat the shit out of you. I do not recollect voting for him to lead me to heaven. I was not even asked for an opinion.
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Mario, Kristu dejjem kien jippriedka l-hniena u l-imhabba. L-uniku darba li sibel kien meta bidlu t-templu t'Alla f'post tan-negozju kif sfortunatament qed jinbidlu certu knejjes f'Ghawdex. Nitolbok li tikkalma ftit u tibda tahdem biex f'Malta jkollna s-separazzjoni bejn il-Knisja u l-Istat.
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The priesthood itself is not in agreement on the divorce issue, so don't be taken in by the Bishop's orders. Just read this: https://mazzun.wordpress.com/2011/05/22/iz-zewgt-ucuh-tal-knisja-kattolika-maltija/
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Fists clenched ,and this person represents humble Jesus?
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looking at bishop Grech's picture reminds me of a movie i saw were Hitler screamed at his generals , Is Paris burning?
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L-Ayatollah t'Ghawdex ghandu f'hiex jeghda jekk irid isalva l-erwieh. Jekk ihares harsa madwar il-merhla tieghu f'Ghawdex jara: (1) persentagg gholi ta' nies pogguti - certament hafna akta minn kull rahal u belt f'Malta (2) persentagg gholi ta' nisa u rgiel mizzewwgin jaqilbugha 'l xulxin (3) persentagg gholi ta' qassisin fl-isem biss - specjalment ix-xjuh li kienu saru qassisisn bil-fors minhabba tradizzjonijiet antiki fost il-familji. Mhux ta' b'xejn li l-pedofelija tidher li tifjorixxi f'Ghawdex aktar minn Malta (4) persentagg gholi ta' rgiel mizzewwgin li ghandom "partner" mir-Russja jew minn xi pajjiz iehor, akkomodata f'xi flat f'Marsalforn (5) persentagg gholi ta' "nsara" ferventi li jmorru l-quddies biss ghax ivvizzjati u li ma l-ewwel cans li jkollom jaqilbu d-dinja ta' taht fuq. Jien naf x'qed nghid ghax ghext Ghawdex ghal xi zmien. L-Ghawdxin inhobbhom daqs dawl ghajnejja imma min jahseb li l-Ghawdxin huma xi rekligjuzi ferventi sejjer zball kbir. Sfortunatament jekk f'Malta ghadna 20 sena lura, f'Ghawdex bl-Isqof arci-konservattiv li ghandom, ghadom jghixu fi-sittinijiet!
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Lil Poplu Malti, "Intom tridu tibqghu tghixu fi stat ikkontrollat mil-vatikan? Jew tridu tigu tghixu fi stat sekulari, jigifieri stat ghalih u religjon ghalih?" jekk tridu tibqghu kif inthom , ivvutaw LE fi referendum, jeek tridu li Malta tigi stat sekulari , stat ghalih u relgjon ghalih , ivvotaw IVA fi referendum." Poplu Malti dan ir-referendum aktar ma jaghddi zmien aktar qed jikxef x'hemm mohbi , poplu Malti, dan ir-referendum, huwa ta mportanza kbira, mhux ghad divorzju biss dan LE! Izda ghall LIBERTA min hakma tal-vatikan li ghnadhu fuq pajjizna. Dan ir-referendum huwa storiku , qum poplu malti tibqax thalli lil min ibezzak mid-dlam, qum u iggieled ghad drittijiet tieghek, ghal min irid izommok lura fi dlamijiet.
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I wish to congratulate the “No to Divorce” movement for helping me decide how to vote. With their weak arguments; their mixing of religion with civil laws; their lack of offering a solution to those whose marriage is broken; their (or rather their chairperson) lack of appearance to answer questions by journalists and that they are not considering a substantial minority of non-Catholics and wanting to impose the rules of the Catholic religion upon these made me decide to vote “YES”