[SURVEY] 'No' voters determined to get out and vote, as 'Yes' regains lead

FULL RESULTS below on Google Docs

But the lead drops to just 3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error, among respondents who are sure of voting on referendum day.

This is a clear indication that the outcome of the referendum will depend on the voter turnout. A low turnout among ‘yes’ voters could still tilt the referendum in favour of the ‘no’ campaign.

The ‘yes’ gains in the survey comes in the wake of a 3-point decrease in undecided and a 5-point drop in no voters.  Moreover, the drop in ‘no’ voters is corresponded by an increase of three points among non-voters.

Point your mouse over the lines to reveal previous data.

The ‘no’ campaign has scored its lowest score ever since MaltaToday started conducting surveys on the divorce issue. This drop in the ‘no’ vote comes in the wake of a hardening of the Church’s stance against divorce, which saw Bishop Mario Grech warning that people who are not loyal to the church’s beliefs should not call themselves Catholics.

Although the ‘yes’ campaign has recovered some ground, their vote is still lower than it was in April. The ‘yes; campaign made significant gains among men and those aged below 54 years, but failed to make any gains among females and those aged over 55 years.

The gender divide

Significantly the survey amplified the gender divide between pro-divorce men and anti-divorce women, already present in previous surveys.

While among women, the No vote still enjoys a 2-point lead over the Yes campaign, among males 47% intend to vote Yes, while only 29% intend to vote No.  

Compared to the previous survey, the Yes vote scores a 9 percentage point gain among males, but remains stable among women. Moreover, while 25% of women are undecided, only 15% of men are in the same state of mind.

But significantly, while 9% of males are intent on not voting, only 6% of women have the same intention. The major difference of opinion between the sexes is found among the 55-plus age group. While males aged over 55 are nearly equally divided between No and Yes voters, among women in this age group, only 20% favour divorce and 48% are against its introduction.

This could be an indication that women aged over 55 are more likely to heed warning made by the Catholic church against voting for divorce and also more concerned on the possibility of being abandoned by their husbands.

The age factor

Divorce remains more popular among those aged under 35 years old and least popular among those aged over 55. 34 to 54 year olds are the most undecided.

Over the past two weeks, the sharpest increase in support for divorce occurred among those aged between 35 and 54, where the Yes vote gained 10 percentage points. 

On the other hand, the No vote registered its sharpest drop among those aged 18 to 34. Among this age group, the number of No voters has decreased by 11 points. But the situation remained practically unchanged among those aged above 55 years of age, except for a 2 percentage point increase in those intending not to vote.

The only category to register an absolute majority for divorce are males aged between 18 and 34, where 55% would vote for its introduction. 

In all age groups women are less likely to support divorce. The only female age group to register a relative majority (49%) for divorce are those aged between 18 and 34. 

The political divide

The No vote has continued to lose ground among Labour voters. Among this category, No voters have now fallen from 11% to 8%. But among this category, the decrease is partially compensated by an increase in non-voters and the undecided rather, than an increase in those voting Yes.

This could be an indication that some Labour voters opposed to divorce will be abstaining in the next week’s referendum, or a reluctance on the part of anti-divorce Labour voters to support the anti-divorce stance adopted by the Nationalist Party.

While the number of Yes voters remained stable among Labour voters, the survey shows a 3 percentage point gain for the yes campaign among Nationalist voters.

Overall, the survey confirms the political rift on this issue, with 64% of Nationalists intending to vote No and 71% of Labourites intending to vote Yes.

Outcome still depends on turnout

For the first time in the past 3 surveys, Yes voters are less certain of voting than No voters. While 68% of Yes voters (down from 71%)  are sure of voting, only 77% of No voters (up from 66%) intend to do likewise.

Over the past two weeks, there has also been a significant change in the No camp: those who will probably not be voting decreased from 5% to just 1%. Since the number of non-voters has actually gone up, this is an indication that a number of No voters in previous surveys have now decided not to vote.

This could be an indication that some potential No voters are sceptical about the referendum. On the other hand, Yes voters were more likely to say that they will be “probably voting” or to decide on the basis of “how they feel on the day” than No voters.

Because of this, among “sure voters” the No campaign trails the Yes campaign by just 3 points. This is another indication that the outcome of the referendum will be determined by  the ability of both sides to convince their voters to go out and vote.