An early election and maximising Labour’s chances

The prime minister decided to call a snap election on 30 May, citing international instability as the reason for going to the polls.

“Malta needs an elected government, with a new mandate, focused solely on the country’s needs, given all the challenges that the current context brings, and the coming months will be crucial,” Abela said in the televised address that preceded his visit to the president where he advised her to dissolve parliament.

We all know that the real reason for holding an early election has little to do with the national interest and everything to do with the government party’s interest. It’s always been like that, irrespective of who occupied the seat at Castille. The timing of the election is the prime minister’s sole prerogative and every one of them has tried to maximise the chances of their party winning.

Abela may have reasoned that as things stand today, the fallout from the Iran war and subsequent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, has been largely contained. Malta’s energy and fuel prices remain insulated from the tribulations visible in other parts of the world as a result of government subsidies. However, in a few months’ time, inflation may start to bite harder, subsidies would need to increase restricting the finance minister’s manoeuvrability when it comes to increases in social benefits and tax cuts. A situation like this—totally out of government’s control—risked undermining the government’s chance of presenting the best possible budget in October.

Within this context, an early election would minimise the risks from international instability and maximise the PL’s chances at the polls by projecting an image that with Abela, the country has a safe pair of hands at the rudder.

But there may be other reasons why Abela chose to go for a snap election and they have nothing to do with Iran or the price of energy.

The first is the level of complacency within the Labour Party’s rank and file. Various surveys, including MaltaToday’s, have consistently put the PL ahead to varying degrees but they also showed that the party is being punished by its own voters, who do not want to vote.

Abela may have calculated it is better to minimise his losses and hold an election now rather than continue in office and risk having a higher attrition rate, while giving his direct opponent Alex Borg time to consolidate. Some of the issues that concern people and for which the Labour government is blamed, such as overpopulation caused by foreign workers and congested roads, are not easily resolvable and risk putting more people off.

But there is another reason, which may have prompted Abela to head to the polls early—Yorgen Fenech’s trial.

It is a known fact that Yorgen Fenech’s trial, in which he stands charged with masterminding the murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia, will happen in the coming months. The political ramifications of this trial could be enormous since Fenech was close to the corridors of power during the Muscat administration. What testimony emerges in court is completely out of Abela’s control, which is why it is a political risk. Abela knows that any political implication in Caruana Galizia’s murder could embarrass the Labour government and overshadow everything else. That is a prospect Abela will not want to see happening in the run-up to the last, best budget and an election.

Calling an election now avoids the Fenech trial complications altogether but it does leave the electorate asking what could potentially emerge from this court case that warrants an election being held now and not next year.

Whatever the reasons for an early election are, the Labour Party has the cards stacked in its favour. It knows it has the upper hand as the incumbent with the state’s full resources at its disposal. Nonetheless, its biggest mistake would be to take the electorate for granted.

On the other hand, the Nationalist Party starts yet another election campaign as the underdog. It lacks the capability to match the PL’s resources and yet it can still turn its underdog status into dark horse by presenting a credible alternative that blends continuity with change. However, to do so it needs to get people talking about its proposals, something, it failed to do on the first day of the campaign yesterday when it left the field open for the PL to put forward important proposals concerning parents, first-time buyers and pensioners.