Complacency: The PL’s biggest challenge

The starting gun has not yet been fired but we are all waiting for it to pop. The million-dollar question is which party will be winning the election. Which leader will be winning the hearts of voters?

All surveys since the last general election, including the one published last Sunday on The Sunday Times of Malta, gave the Labour Party a comfortable majority. The same polls are showing an even clearer majority for Robert Abela in the trust rating. Should the PL then be sure of a record fourth victory when the election is called? That would be its biggest mistake. Complacency is the PL’s biggest challenge.

I lived the experience of a similar scenario in 1996 when the Nationalist Party had, at the time, a comfortable majority. I was a PN candidate then. We were encouraged to have a colourful campaign with personal streamers and celebratory activities. Alfred Sant on the other hand conducted a humble, no-frills campaign. When polling closed at 10pm the atmosphere in front of the Stamperija was party-like as the supporters started celebrating what was previously perceived as a sure victory. The first shock came early Sunday afternoon when the famous phrase “photo finish” was uttered. The rest is history.

My point here is that while all polls are pointing to a PL victory, it is not a forgone conclusion. The last electoral appointment, albeit being a secondary and not a general election, stunned everyone by the low turnout, which ultimately translated in a smaller PL majority.

Elections are won and lost because of several factors. First and foremost, getting out the core vote on polling day. Secondly, switches from one party to the other. The latter does not seem to be happening according to the opinion polls. So, if no shifts from PL to PN are being registered, at least not in significant numbers, the PN’s chance of winning the election relies on abstentions among PL supporters.

There is also the trust factor. The prime minister has consistently performed much better than his opponents. Robert Abela did not have an easy time while in office. COVID-19 stretched the government’s resources while the fallout from the Ukraine war and instability in the Middle East made matters difficult for any leader. Yet, somehow, Abela and his team managed to steer the ship through all these storms. There is also the electorate’s positive verdict on the government performance, which constantly features in every poll.

I am not surprised that voters continue to give Abela the thumbs up.

Alex Borg is a genuine good man but he has not been leading the PN long enough to make the necessary changes to renew the party adequately. He is a breath of fresh air in domestic politics. He is positive and pleasurable to talk to and be around. But he is surrounded by negative and at times arrogant colleagues and attitudes. I am not referring to all his MPs, neither have I in mind the veteran ones. As a matter of fact, I believe that one of his best MPs is Carm Mifsud Bonnici, who despite being a long-standing representative remains an asset to any leader. He is one of a few politicians on the PN side who is well-read and humble. There are of course others.

The PN leader has only a handful of MPs within his parliamentary group he can rely on. I strongly believe that, should Borg be entrusted with leading the country, he will struggle to form a strong Cabinet. I dare say that some of his MPs have got no clue what hit them since finding themselves in parliament. Other newbies are arrogant, calling hard working businessmen fat cats and describing hunters and trappers as barbarians. God forbid having the likes of these MPs running our country.

Borg needs more time. Time which he does not have until polling day. He knew this nine months ago when he became leader of the party. To his credit the PN leader managed an incredible feat; he united the core behind him, but the 43% of the electorate, representing the entire core of the PN is not enough for Borg to reach the promised land.

If I had to give my two cents worth piece of advice to Borg it would be to mount a humble and positive campaign. He should not use all his financial resources. No one would blame him if he does not manage to win the upcoming election. If anything, any other leader would probably not have managed to secure the core vote.

Borg’s mandate as PN leader would start after the general election, unless the PL voters choose otherwise and send him to Castille by abstaining.

Complacency may decide this election. It is the PL’s biggest challenge.