MaltaToday survey: Labour leads by 18,000 votes

SUMMARY

The Labour Party enjoys a lead of 18,000 votes over the Nationalist Party in MaltaToday’s second and final election survey.

But the gap between the two major parties could be anything in the range between 12,607 votes and 28,775 votes, depending on different scenarios and statistical models.

In the 2022 general election the gap between the two parties stood at a whopping 39,000 votes.

The results are based on a projected turnout of 79.2%, a decrease of 3.5% from the 2022 election. Turnout in 2022 stood at 85.6%, while 2.9% invalidated their vote.

The survey is based on a robust sample of 1,382 respondents and has a margin of error of +/-2.6 points. The survey was conducted between 13 May and 24 May, which coincided with the third and fourth weeks of the campaign.

But the results shows that a substantial 11.7% of voters are still undecided on who they will be voting for, equivalent to around 41,571 voters. This introduces an element of uncertainty in the polls, simply because the undecided can still swing the election either way even if Labour starts with a clear advantage.

The survey used a statistical imputation based on a prediction model to apportion the undecided to the party they are most likely to vote for. 

Compared to the first electoral survey carried out in the first two weeks of the campaign, the gap between the two parties has remained stable at 6.4 points. Nonetheless, due to a slight increase in the projected turnout, the numerical vote gap has widened from 17,386 to 18,007.

The survey shows Labour losing 10.9% of its 2022 general election voters to abstention, while the PN loses only 6%.

The survey confirms a small shift from the PL to the PN. Third parties capture around 5.2% of the vote, slightly down from 6.1% in the previous survey.

Meanwhile, the trust gap between the leaders has narrowed from 7.1 points to 4.6 points due to a small increase in Borg’s trust rating and a small drop in Abela’s. The change is within the margin of error of both surveys.

VOTING INTENTIONS
Labour leads by six points

The Labour Party leads the Nationalist Party by 6.4 points a few days before polling day, MaltaToday’s final election survey shows.

The gap is similar to that recorded in the first MaltaToday survey at the start of the campaign but substantially higher than that recorded in March.

The survey also shows the PL winning an absolute majority of 50.6%, up from 50.1% in the first electoral survey. The PN trails at 44.2% up from 43.8%, while third parties get 5.2% down from 6.1%. The changes are statistically insignificant as they fall within the margin of error of both surveys.

The current scenario indicates that the gap between the two major parties can range between 12,600 votes and 28,800 votes, depending on the statistical model used, with the mean gap set at around 18,000 votes.

However, the projected margin of victory for the PL at this stage is less dramatic than its 2022 election victory when it obtained 55.1% of the vote.

The results come from a survey of 1,382 respondents contacted over the past two weeks. The survey has a margin of error of +/-2.6 points.

Compared to the previous survey, the percentage of non-voters has dropped slightly from 22.7% to 20.8%. The percentage of PL voters in 2022 now intent on not voting has remained stable at 11%. Meanwhile, the percentage of PN voters now intent on not voting has dropped from 15% to just 6%.

Small shift to PN

The survey also confirms a small shift from the PL to the PN but one that is not big enough to explain the drop in Labour’s support. The PL’s support level, on the other hand, is significantly impacted by the lower turnout among its own voters. 

The survey shows a shift of 4.4% of 2022 PL voters, some 7,159, to the PN when compared to 3% of 2022 PN voters, some 3,697, who are now voting Labour. This results in a net shift of just 3,462 votes from the PL to the PN.

In this survey both parties recover between 6% and 7% of non-voters from the 2022 election. Both parties lose 2% of their 2022 vote to third parties.

This suggests that the major factor behind Labour’s losses from 2022 is its greater abstention rate. Based on the survey’s figures, while the PN loses around 7,400 votes of its 2022 tally to abstention, the PL loses around 17,700 votes.

Battle for Gozo gets tighter

A regional breakdown suggests a very tight battle for Gozo with the PN leading by just 3.3 points, down from the 12-point lead it enjoyed in the first election survey.

It is important to note that results for regional and other breakdowns are only indicative due to the substantially higher margin of error in these subgroups.

The PL has consolidated support in its heartlands with support in the South Harbour region, which includes Cottonera and Żabbar, increasing from 46.3% two weeks ago to 50.3%. The PN trails at 28.9%.

The PL also has a commanding 17-point lead in the South-eastern region which includes Labour strongholds like Żejtun, Żurrieq and Birżebbuġa.

Once again Labour also manages to make inroads in central Malta with the party retaining an eight-point lead over the PN in the North Harbour region. This region includes a mix of localities, ranging from Labour-leaning Qormi to PN strongholds like Sliema and more balanced localities like Birkirkara.

But the PN is leading by a comfortable eight-point margin in the Northern region, which includes St Paul’s Bay and Mellieħa, and by a seven-point margin in the Western region that includes Rabat, Siġġiewi, Dingli and Attard.

The survey shows that abstention is highest in the Northern region  (24.6%) and the Western region (23.9%).

PL leads in all age groups

The survey shows Labour leading in all age groups. Its lead is smallest among  36- to 50-year-olds and pensioners, where it leads by just two points.

But the PL leads by nearly nine points among 16- to 35-year-olds and by eight points among 51- to 65-year-olds. 

Abstention peaks among 16- to 35-year-olds (26.9%) and among 36- to 50-year-olds (25.1%). A breakdown by gender shows the PL leading by four points and by six points among men.

A breakdown by education shows Labour leading by substantial margins among respondents with a secondary and primary level of education.

Significantly, it also leads by 12 points among the post-secondary educated, an electorally strategic category, which includes people who continued their studies beyond secondary level in non-university institutions like MCAST. This category, which shifted to Labour before the 2013 election remains pivotal for its success.

On the other hand, the PN leads by 16 points among the tertiary educated, a category which always leaned blue but which now includes 8% who will vote for third parties and 26% who will not vote.

TRUST BAROMETER

Abela’s lead narrows to five points

In a head-to-head confrontation, Robert Abela is trusted with running the country by 41.8% of voters against 37.2% who trust Alex Borg. This suggests a narrowing of the trust gap from seven points to five points from the previous MaltaToday election survey.

Abela loses 1.7 points, while Borg gains 0.8 points amidst a one-point increase of those who trust neither of the two leaders.

These fluctuations are within the margin of error of both surveys and thus not statistically significant.

As was the case in the previous survey the gap between the leaders now corresponds to that between the two parties contrary to the trend in pre campaign surveys, which showed Abela leading by a more substantial margin.

In fact, the survey also shows that both leaders are trusted by the vast majority of their respective party voters—97.4% of current PL voters trust Abela, 98.6% of PN voters trust Borg.

The survey shows that 82% of current non-voters trust neither leader with the rest split between the two leaders.

The survey shows both leaders making some inroads among 2022 election voters of the opposing party. While 6.5% of PL voters in 2022 now trust Borg, 6.2% of PN voters trust Abela.

Abela and Borg lead in three regions each

The survey shows Borg leading Abela by 4.6 points in Gozo, a district where the PN leads by 3.3 points. Borg also leads by eight points in the Northern region and the Western region.

As has been the trend in previous surveys, Abela is leading Borg by very substantial margins in the South-eastern region (17 points) and the South Harbour (22 points). Significantly, Abela also leads by seven points in the North Harbour region, which includes major urban centres like Birkirkara, Sliema and Qormi.

The survey also shows Abela leading in all age groups but enjoys the highest trust lead among under 35-year-olds where he leads by eight points and among 51- to 65-year-olds, where he leads by a similar margin. But the PL leader only leads Borg by two points among 36- to 50-year-olds. The two leaders are practically neck and neck among over 65-year-olds. 

The highest percentage of voters who trust neither leader is found among 16- to 35-year-olds (30%).

A breakdown by gender also shows Abela leading by 3.5 points among women and by 5.6 points among men.

The survey confirms previous trends showing Abela leading Borg by a substantial margin among secondary educated voters (13.3 points), the primary educated (16.9 points) and the post-secondary educated (7.6 points), while Borg leads by 15 points among the tertiary educated.