Alex Borg’s vote inheritance explained

Alex Borg left a substantial inheritance of votes in Gozo, 4.1% of which went to candidates of other parties, including 226 votes to Labour candidates.

However, this was not an exceptional case. A similar occurrence happened on the 12 District where 4.7% of Borg’s surplus votes were inherited by other parties.

But while in Gozo the main beneficiaries from the PB leader’s surplus were Labour candidates, on the 12 District the main beneficiary was ADPD Chairperson Sandra Gauci and other third party candidates.

Borg’s Gozo inheritance

Alex Borg was elected from Gozo with 12,211 votes. He obtained 7,563 more votes than the district quota.

When the surplus was distributed, the vast majority (95.9%) went to other PN candidates. Beppe Galea inherited 2,748 votes, Frank Anthony Tabone 2,712 and Norma Camilleri 1,149. Luke Said inherited 629 votes.
Significantly, 4.1% of Borg’s surplus was transferred to candidates of other parties.

Of these, 226 votes went directly to PL candidates. Jo Etienne Abela inherited 110 votes from the PN leader, while Anton Refalo received 100 votes.

Clint Camilleri was not in a position to inherit votes from Borg since he was also elected on the first count. A further 85 votes from Borg’s surplus were inherited by candidates standing for third parties.

These cross-party transfers and non-transferable votes may have played a role in the end result, which saw the PL obtain a one-seat majority despite the PN obtaining more votes. But vote transfers in Gozo were not one sided.

Clint Camilleri was also elected on the first count and had a surplus of 1,372 votes. When these were distributed, 36 votes shifted to PN candidates and six votes went to other party candidates. These transfers amounted to 3.1% of Camilleri’s surplus.

Moreover, when PL candidate Abigail Camilleri was eliminated, 31 (4.1%) of her 753 votes were inherited by PN candidates.

Similarly, when PN candidate Luke Said was eliminated, 40 (3.9%) of his final 1,021 votes were inherited by Labour candidate Jo Etienne Abela.

Borg’s 12 District inheritance

A similar trend is observable on the 12 District, where 4.7% of Alex Borg’s 6,125-vote surplus was transferred to candidates of other parties.

Significantly, while 109 votes (1.8%) were inherited by PL candidates, 179 (2.9%) shifted to candidates from the smaller parties. The latter included 117 votes inherited by ADPD Chairperson Sandra Gauci, who alone inherited nearly 2% of Alex Borg’s surplus.

This boost enabled Gauci to survive longer in the race, being eliminated on the 16 count, by which time her vote tally had surged from an initial 513 votes to 950.

This suggests that Borg managed to appeal to voters outside his party’s core constituency, including a chunk of voters who are sympathetic to third parties.

Less cross-voting by Abela’s voters

Robert Abela shed fewer votes from his tally than Alex Borg did to other parties when his surplus was distributed.

In fact, only 21 votes from Abela’s 7,861-vote surplus in the 2 District were inherited by third-party candidates, while 18 were inherited by PN candidates. Together, these represented just 0.5% of Abela’s surplus votes.

This means that over 99% of Abela’s votes were transferred to candidates within his own party.

In the 5 District, only 51 votes (0.9%) of Abela’s 5,858-vote surplus were inherited by candidates of other parties. These included 26 votes inherited by third party candidates and 25 inherited by PN candidates.