The breakthrough that never came

Third parties picked up support in the election, surpassing the 10,000-vote mark but made no breakthrough. James Debono reflects on why third parties face an insurmountable ceiling

Turnout increased by two points and invalid votes decreased by a point in the 2026 election. And yet, the collective vote for ADPD and Momentum was just one point higher than the combined vote of ADPD and Arnold Cassola’s independent ticket in 2022.

After a good showing by independents in the 2024 MEP elections when 13% voted for candidates outside the two major parties, and with opinion polls suggesting an increase in non-voters, many expected a breakthrough by third parties this year.

This did not materialise. Instead, it confirmed the fundamental difference between European elections, where people vote to choose MEPs, and national elections where people choose their government.

Despite the 2026 turnout being higher than 2022, albeit by a small margin, this does not appear to have benefitted third parties.

96.5% still vote PLPN

The stark reality is that an overwhelming 96.5% of Maltese voters opted for the duopoly, and only 3.5% voted for third parties, including the far right (0.7%).

Collectively, third parties managed to attract 10,869 votes, a mere increase of 1,561 votes over the 2022 election.

Moreover, the combined sum of centrist and progressive third parties, namely Momentum and ADPD, which together polled 8,696 votes (2.8%), was just 3,045 votes more than the sum of ADPD and Cassola’s independent ticket in 2022 (5,651 votes or 1.8%).

Momentum, created on the crest of Cassola’s relatively good showing in the MEP elections, was the new kid on the block and ran the strongest campaign. However, its result, a paltry 1.5%, fell short of expectations and was only 0.2 points higher than that of ADPD.

This raises the question as to whether the two parties would have performed better had they contested on a joint list.

The fact that the combined result failed to breach the 3% threshold shows that even together the two parties are not only a long way from electing an MP but also from making a breakthrough in terms of critical mass.

Limited appeal among working class voters

Moreover, both parties made little inroads in the Labour-leaning southern districts (districts 1 to 7), the 8 District and Gozo.

While ADPD outperformed Momentum in most Labour-leaning districts, Momentum outperformed ADPD in PN-leaning districts. Suffice it to say that a third of Momentum’s votes were awarded to Arnold Cassola who contested the 9 and 10 districts.

It was only in the PN-leaning districts between 9 and 12 that the combined sum of these two parties hovered around 4%.

This suggests that the parties’ message did not resonate with working-class voters living in less affluent districts. Moreover, the over-reliance on pale blue middle-class voters in northern districts is giving diminishing returns, especially now that the PN has a realistic chance to win the next general election given it has halved the gap in 2026.

One key segment critical for the growth of progressive third-party politics, is their potential appeal to educated young people hailing from working class Labour-leaning families.

People want to choose their government

Third parties lack the financial resources of other parties, and the electoral system is rigged to favour the big parties given the absence of a national quota. But elections are not a charity event where third parties get the sympathy vote.

Moreover, third parties also face a major stumbling block. In general elections, people generally choose the party they want to see in government and the party they want to keep out of power. Voters use their vote to answer the question: Who would you like to be in government?

This question is not only ingrained in the national psyche but is also entrenched in the constitutional amendments introduced over the years that ensure proportionality between votes and seats if two parties are elected to parliament—the premise being that one party will govern and the other will be in Opposition.

All those who vote for third parties are simply saying they do not want to choose the party they want to see in government. This limits their support to a small minority of voters who simply vote on the basis of political principle.

This does not mean that PN or PL voters are unprincipled. In fact, many agree with ADPD and Momentum on various issues but are not keen to lose their say in determining which party they want to see in power. Those who are not interested in making such a choice between the big parties, tend to have higher expectations from third parties.

Expectations based on principle

The problem is that, to sound mainstream and appeal to the ever-elusive pale blue voters, third parties even end up disappointing principled voters, who are by nature finicky and selective. 

For example, Momentum’s stance on abortion—allowing freedom of conscience to its candidates—only contributed to disorienting pro-choice voters who consider this issue a non-negotiable civil right.

This is also why an alliance between ADPD and Momentum would not necessarily result in more votes because the resulting compromise could be off-putting for each party’s respective core voters.

How can they get elected?

In the absence of electoral reform or a pre-electoral alliance with one of the major parties as the Democratic Party did in 2017, third parties have only one option  to get to parliament—maximising vote transfers from other parties in particular districts in the hope of reaching a district quota.

In terms of vote transfers, the most successful in this election was Arnold Cassola on the 10 District, who saw his vote tally increase from 795 in the first count to 1,016 in the 24 count when he was eliminated.

Sandra Gauci also saw her tally increase from 513 in the first count to 950 in the 16 count in the 12 District. She even managed to inherit 117 votes directly from Alex Borg’s surplus.

But despite inheriting a substantial number of votes, both candidates were never close to being elected.

One enormous problem with inheriting votes is that voters who want to help a third party candidate get elected have two options; either vote for the strongest candidate as was the case with Alex Borg in the 12 District or to vote for the least voted candidate in a big party list, something which few would be willing to do. Random transfers do not add any substantial number of votes.

Third parties can still serve the purpose of rattling the system by increasing their vote share with the aim of pushing their agenda forward.  But even that requires a critical mass of votes.

No party no vote

What is also lacking from ADPD and Momentum is a base of activists who can spread their message in communities and who are willing to associate themselves with their platform by attending their activities. In short, they have to give their supporters a sense of belonging and make this fun.

Third parties tend to puritanically denigrate the big parties for their uplifting message and for entertaining and motivating their voters.

But if they really want to bring about change, third parties must turn their campaigns into fun instead of doom and gloom pronouncements.

The greens and Labour

Another problem which limits the growth of third parties among a considerable segment of the population is their perceived anti-Labour bias, which limits their appeal to pale blue voters.

While as a centrist party Momentum can thrive in competition with the PN albeit at the risk of being overlooked whenever a change in government becomes a possibility, as a self-declared left-wing party, ADPD is in an awkward position.

This explains ADPD’s difficulty in winning the goodwill of that segment of Labour voters who are increasingly critical of the party’s collusion with big business interests but who are still defined by their distrust of the PN. 

And while goodwill does not necessarily translate into first preference votes in national elections, it can widen the appeal of the party in local and European elections and possibly help it tap second preferences from PL candidates in national elections.

One way to win over the goodwill of these voters is for ADPD to build alliances with progressive Labour activists on issues like women’s rights, reproductive healthcare, civil liberties and social justice in a context where Labour itself needs to open up to defend its more restricted majority in the next general election.