March, April, May, June? Here’s how the electoral math plays out

Robert Abela stated the obvious when he told reporters on Wednesday that the election will be over by June.

His administration’s term ends in June and although it is legally possible to hold an election at the latest possible date in September 2022, nobody is expecting the Prime Minister to go that far. It would mean a three-month long electoral campaign bang in the middle of summer.

The more realistic possibilities are March, May or June.

When the election is held remains the Prime Minister’s sole prerogative and it appears that even within his own party people are unable to read his mind.

Trying to guess the date has been an ongoing exercise for the past year or so, making it somewhat of a conversation filler in bars, family gatherings and seated weddings.

For the election pundits, here is a quick run-through of the possible dates for an election, when parliament would have to be dissolved and the benefits and risks Abela will juggle before choosing the date.

The shortest electoral campaign can be 33 days but given the tradition of holding general elections on a Saturday this may be slightly longer.

12 March election • Parliament will have to be dissolved on 7 February

This is the first possible date available to the Prime Minister, which means parliament only has one more week to go before the announcement.

With polls in his favour and the post-Christmas COVID pandemic surge gradually coming under control, Abela may opt to get the election over and done with.

COVID measures will start being lifted on 7 February for restaurants and 14 February for bars, which will give the sector some reprieve.

But the relaxation of the vaccine certificate rules will also give rise to claims of discrimination from nightclub owners and event organisers since these will still be subjected to vaccine restrictions. This could create a nuisance for Abela in the midst of an electoral campaign and would be an issue he will ponder upon before deciding on 12 March.

Abela may want to avoid having another ‘Joseph Muscat incident’ derailing an election campaign. Prolonging the election date increases that risk

Abela may also want to avoid having another ‘Joseph Muscat incident’ derailing an election campaign. Prolonging the election date increases that risk.

But 12 March could get into the way of preparations for Pope Francis’s visit on 2 April from a logistical perspective and the build-up of enthusiasm within church circles. Abela will not want to disrupt this event that could give him the chance as prime minister to appear alongside the Pope.

19 March election • Parliament will have to be dissolved on 14 February

There is very little substantive difference between this date and 12 March but it creates more complications for the Pope’s visit.

Apart from the potential disruptions in the build-up to the papal visit, the two weeks after 19 March will see the new government being formed and casual elections taking place. The post-election turbulence will be too close to the Pope’s visit and unpalatable for the Vatican.

If Abela’s choice is March, it is unlikely he will opt for the 19th when he can hold an election a week earlier.

Pope Francis is expected to visit Malta on 2 and 3 April

April ruled out

The news that Pope Francis is slated to visit Malta on 2 and 3 April has effectively ruled out April for an election. Easter Sunday comes on 17 April and people will be relishing a proper celebration this year in the wake of an improving COVID situation.

Rising inflation in food prices could hurt people’s pockets even more, making this an electoral issue

21 May election • Parliament will be dissolved on Easter Monday 18 April

A May election capitalises on the feel-good factor generated by spring, the lifting of COVID restrictions and the fact that people would have celebrated a relatively normal Easter. It allows the government to fulfil more budget measures and address individual grievances, especially among the rank and file.

On the downside, rising inflation in food prices could hurt people’s pockets even more, making this an electoral issue.

Global economic uncertainty as a result of COVID-induced supply chain disruptions, the lack of long-term clarity on how the pandemic will evolve and the Joseph Muscat factor will weigh heavily on Abela’s mind before deciding whether to risk prolonging the election date to May.

28 May election • Parliament will be dissolved on 25 April

There is no substantive difference between holding an election on 28 May and 21 May. The same considerations apply to both dates.

Given that Robert Abela’s father, George, was at the time deputy leader of the Labour Party before falling out because he disagreed with an early election, June may be somewhat of a personal milestone for the prime minister

4 June election • Parliament will be dissolved on 1 May

Any election in June will be held in the first weekend to avoid intruding into the summer season, when people switch off, go on holiday or are preparing for the village feast.

A June election will shut down criticism that a Labour administration is unable to run its full term – a spectre that has haunted the party since the Sant administration of 1996 that ended after just 22 months. Given that Robert Abela’s father, George, was at the time deputy leader of the Labour Party before falling out because he disagreed with an early election, June may be somewhat of a personal milestone for the prime minister.

Kicking off the election on 1 May, Workers’ Day, which the PL traditionally marks with a mass meeting in Valletta, will also provide the right platform for Abela to champion his social credentials.

But all the risks associated with holding an election in May will persist. A June election will also be on the doorstep of a meeting of the Financial Action Task Force (normally held towards the end of June) when Malta will be making its pitch to get off the greylist. This could make greylisting a more ominous issue in the election campaign.