Germany goes to the polls in first major test for EU democracy in Trump era

Germany goes to the polls today, and if the surveys prove accurate, the most probable outcome will be a renewed ‘grand coalition’ between the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Christian Democrats (CDU), with CDU leader Friedrich Merz expected to become Chancellor of the EU’s largest economy.

Germany was previously governed by a grand coalition led by Angela Merkel between 2013 and 2021, before shifting to the so-called ‘traffic light coalition’ of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals under Olaf Scholz. That coalition collapsed due to disagreements on economic policy amidst a slowdown.

But if the numbers fall short after today’s election, the ‘grand coalition’ may have to be extended to include the Greens.

All three parties have governed together at the regional or national level. They share support for Ukraine and EU integration but differ on public spending, immigration, and climate change. They are also formally committed to maintaining a ‘firewall’ against the far-right AfD.

However, the biggest uncertainty remains the AfD, whose support may be underestimated in the polls, with a fifth of voters still undecided. The far-right party – some of whose branches are classified as ‘extremist’ by German security services – advocates large-scale deportations, targeting not only undocumented migrants but also legally residing individuals deemed ‘non-assimilated.’

The AfD has received open support from the Trump administration and Elon Musk, who hosted the far-right leader in a broadcast on the social media platform X. While it remains highly unlikely that the AfD will gather enough numbers to govern on its own, if it emerges as the strongest party, keeping it out of power will become a more difficult task for the other parties. Such a result could also embolden the more right-leaning faction within the CDU-CSU to break the post-war taboo against collaborating with the far right. Merz has already been accused of breaching this ‘firewall’ when he secured approval for a five-point plan on migration with AfD votes, sparking national protests and a rebuke from former chancellor Angela Merkel.

Additionally, a strong AfD performance would reinforce the party’s narrative that it is unfairly excluded from power by the political establishment.

Another key factor will be which smaller parties surpass the 5% threshold, a development that could significantly influence post-election coalition building. Struggling to meet this threshold are the liberal FDP and the newly founded BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht. The only party to gain traction in the campaign's final week was the leftist Die Linke, which has seen increased support among younger voters concerned about the rise of the far right.

THE CONTENDERS

SPD – Social Democrats/Centre-Left

Leader: Olaf Scholz

The SPD is not only Germany's oldest political party but also the most influential social democratic party in Europe. After a decade of decline, it saw a resurgence in 2021, enabling Olaf Scholz to become Chancellor at the head of an unstable ‘traffic-light’ coalition. The party is firmly committed to supporting Ukraine and European integration but advocates reforming the debt brake to allow more spending on defence and climate initiatives.

CDU/CSU – Christian Democrats/Centre-Right

Leader: Friedrich Merz

The CDU, along with its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, has been at the helm of most German governments since the end of the Second World War. Under Angela Merkel, the party shifted towards the centre and opened Germany to an influx of Syrian migrants. However, under Merz—a corporate lawyer advocating lower government spending and a tougher stance on migration—the party has taken a rightward turn. The CDU remains committed to Ukraine and EU integration.

Die Grünen – Greens/Centre-Left

Leader: Robert Habeck

The Greens, originally founded in the 1980s as a left-wing movement focused on anti-nuclear and feminist causes, have become much more mainstream in the past two decades. They are strong advocates of EU integration and are unwavering supporters of Ukraine. While their climate policies have faced backlash, their support has remained stable at around 14%.

Alternative für Deutschland – Far-Right Nationalists

Leader: Alice Weidel

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) was founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party but has since shifted to the far right. The party opposes immigration and European integration and has even been rejected by other right-wing European leaders, such as Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen. It belongs to the most extreme European grouping, the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN). Nonetheless, Elon Musk’s open support has given it a degree of legitimacy.

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Conservative Left

Leader: Sahra Wagenknecht

BSW is centred around Sahra Wagenknecht, a former leader of Die Linke, who has attracted voters who are economically left-wing but oppose immigration and hold culturally conservative views. She also opposes military aid to Ukraine.

Freie Demokratische Partei – Pro-Business Liberals

Leader: Christian Lindner

The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is less culturally conservative than the CDU and more economically laissez-faire than the SPD and Greens. However, following the collapse of the traffic-light coalition in which its leader Christian Lindner served as Finance Minister, the party is now struggling to surpass the 5% threshold.

Die Linke – Progressive Left

Leader: Heidi Reichinnek

Originally founded by former East German communists and disillusioned Social Democrats, Die Linke has reinvented itself after losing ground to BSW. It is now appealing to progressive voters by opposing deportations, advocating rental caps, proposing a solidarity pension funded by taxation, and calling for higher taxes on the very wealthy.