[ANALYSIS] MaltaToday survey confirms PN’s education and class divide

Only one in twenty of university-educated respondents to MaltaToday’s latest survey trust PN leader Adrian Delia more than Labour leader Robert Abela.

Yet even with the same abysmal trust rating, Therese Comodini Cachia’s 10% of trust with the same cohort of voters may start to look encouraging.

Still, Comodini Cachia’s level of support pales in contrast to the four-in-ten university educated respondents who trust Abela, or the equally numerous segment who trust neither leader – irrespective if Abela is facing Delia or Comodini Cachia.

These results are particularly significant as the university-educated segment harbours within it the largest percentage of voters who would abstain in a forthcoming election. In fact, four in every ten such voters would not vote in a forthcoming election, while only one in ten would vote PN.

The general picture emerging from the latest MaltaToday survey is bleak for the PN. Irrespective of who leads it, it neither manages to dent Abela’s trust rating nor lure back any significant portion of disillusioned voters.

But it does show Therese Comodini Cachia, who was only catapulted to centre-stage by the PN rebels a week ago, as being marginally more trusted by respondents with a post-secondary and tertiary level of education, in the northern region which includes Mosta, Naxxar and St Paul’s Bay, and significantly among Gozitan voters.

On the other hand, Adrian Delia who has led the PN for the past three years, is marginally more trusted among those with a primary and secondary level of education, in the southern regions and in the more varied north harbour region (which includes Qormi, Birkirkara, St Julian’s and Sliema) and western regions (which includes Zebbug, Dingli, Siggiewi and Attard).

While both PN ‘leaders’ fail in denting Abela’s trust rating, Therese Comodini Cachia is able to marginally sway more non-committed voters among those with a post-secondary level of education than Delia.

In fact, when asked who they trust most between Abela and Delia, 26% of the post-secondary educated and 45% of the tertiary-educated replied ‘none’ or ‘don’t know’.

But when asked who they trust most between Abela and Comodini Cachia the percentage of non-committal voters falls to 22% among the post-secondary educated and to 43% among the tertiary-educated. In both categories, Comodini Cachia is more popular than Delia. And among the post-secondary educated, she enjoys the trust of 15% of respondents compared to Delia’s 11%, while among the tertiary educated 10% trust Comodini Cachia and only 5% trust Delia.

Still, the survey also shows clearly that despite some small gains Comodini Cachia has not swayed the huge chunk of university-educated voters who trust neither Abela nor any of his PN adversaries. Even when pitting Comodini Cachia against Abela, more than four in ten voters in this traditionally PN-leaning category remain non-committed. It is also possible that this category is increasingly alienated by the PN’s civil war, to the detriment of both Delia and his adversaries.

Moreover, the marginally higher trust for Comodini Cachia in both categories does not dent Abela’s support. Among those with a post-secondary education the PL leader enjoys the same degree of trust (63%) irrespective of the choice of PN leader. On the other hand, Abela’s support slips from 50% against Delia to 48% when pitted against Comodini Cachia.

But Delia remains significantly more popular among respondents with a lower level of education. Among secondary-educated voters, 21% trust Delia and only 10% trust Comodini Cachia. In this category Comodini Cachia is significantly less popular than her party. While only one-tenth trust her, 23% would vote PN. On the other hand, in this category Delia is two points less popular than his party.

This suggests that Comodini Cachia still has to work hard to gain the trust of voters with a lower level of education. This could also reflect the class divide in the PN between working-class supporters who still support Delia, and middle-class supporters who would like to see him replaced. It could also expose a divide between middle-class Nationalists who are more influenced by the independent media which has been critical of Delia; and those who are more in tune with the party media which is increasingly dominated by the faction loyal to Delia. It may also reflect the frustration of rank and file members who feel that their ‘democratic’ choice in the leadership contest of 2017 is being treated with contempt.

Comodini Cachia wins Gozo

But the regional picture shows a more complex reality than this.

Delia is only marginally more popular than Comodini Cachia in the southern regions where Abela trounces both leaders. But Delia enjoys significantly higher support in the northern harbour region which includes large urban centres including his Birkikara hometown, Qormi, but also middle-class Sliema. Surprisingly only 6% trust Comodini Cachia in Malta’s largest region.

But in the northern region, which includes more affluent PN leaning localities like Naxxar and Mosta and the more diverse and politically divided St Paul’s Bay, Comodini Cachia is significantly more popular than Delia.

Moreover, Comodini Cachia triumphs in Gozo where her trust rating of 37% is just 4 points lower than Abela’s and even higher than the 36% support for her party. On the other hand, in Gozo Delia trails Abela by a staggering 25 points. Gozitans are the only category in the survey where the PN clearly benefits from a change in leadership. In fact, in Gozo Abela’s trust falls from 44% when pitted against Delia to 41% when pitted against Comodini Cachia.

And in Gozo Delia is significantly less popular than the Nationalist Party, while Comodini Cachia is slightly more popular than her own party. This may well reflect other political factors like the popularity of Gozitan MP Chris Said, Delia’s rival in the 2017 leadership contest.