The five main takeaways from the PN’s do-or-die moment on Saturday

1. In a choice between Delia or chaos, Delia wins

In 2019 PN councillors were asked whether Adrian Delia should remain leader or not. A resounding 67% were in favour of Delia staying on as leader. But that result did not quell the insurgency among his MPs, yet it thought the rebels one major lesson: that the party will not dispose of Delia without a degree of certainty that someone better can replace him.

This time around councillors will determine whether party members will have a choice between Delia and an alternative candidate, or just a Delia confidence vote. The 2019 question to councillors had favoured Delia, having basically been asked to choose between Delia and chaos. This time, the councillors could unleash a contest to see Delia replaced by a number of credible alternatives. Not only, in a leadership contest the councillors get to whittle the shortlist of candidates down to two, with members having the final say on them. The rebels’ option still gives councillors a greater say than a confirmation vote, by certainly determining who the ‘anti-Delia’ candidate will be.

Giving the final to members dispels the perception that rebels are prejudiced against rank and file members, recognising that the democratic mandate Delia was given in 2017 can only be taken back to the very members who had elected him. However, Delia does have a point in arguing that the 2017 vote is valid till the next election and therefore he is already conceding a lot by going for a confirmation vote.

Yet with the party at its lowest ebb in recent history, and Delia losing the trust of the majority of his own parliamentary group, the rebels’ argument for a leadership contest among members may prove more seductive to councillors than a one-man race.

2. Delia now has to race against many horses

One major difference from last year’s botched attempt to unseat Delia is that councillors won’t be taking their decision in a scenario where nobody is ready to take on Delia.

This time rebels have proposed a replacement by way of Therese Comodini Cachia but other names are believed to be getting ready for the race, namely Roberta Metsola, Bernard Grech, Mark Anthony Sammut, Alex Perici Calascione and Comodini Cachia herself, a move that addresses the strategic weakness which crippled the rebels when they asked councillors to take a leap in the dark. Psychologically they have broken a barrier: the real alternative to Delia now actually exists.

There is still the risk of seeing their own anti-Delia coalition break up at the very moment the real race starts. In a leadership contest Delia would still be in contention, while Delia could face the hurdle of having to pass through a due diligence process.

3. Delia’s due diligence hurdle could backfire

Delia’s candidature may still not be automatic, because the new PN statute – yet to come into force by way of a general election – demands a due diligence exercise on any candidate’s “employment, profession and business interests” by an eight-member internal committee. It remains unclear whether it is applicable to the election of a new party leader since this rule falls under the purview of Article 172 (3), which suspends Articles 89 to 99 until after the next general election. 

Any attempt to block his candidature would leave the Delia faction resentful and bitter and the party divided yet again. It would perpetuate the narrative of Delia being a victim of the party establishment. The only way for the rebels to put an end the party’s civil war is one in which Delia is beaten in a fair contest.

4. The PN could still run the risk of a fragmented vote

While it suits the rebels to have a plurality of candidates putting up their names now before the Council’s decision, the moment the real race starts, a fragmented vote could play into Delia’s hands.

Before next Saturday, it makes sense to give councillors the impression that members will be spoilt for choice with a variety of valid candidates. Councillors supporting these rival candidates will have greater impetus to vote Delia out and encouraging others to do so, boosting the chances of seeing their preferred candidate winning. The open contest means the rebels have created an ad hoc coalition with councillors supporting the different candidates which are being mentioned.

But after Saturday the prospect of facing Delia may well increase pressure on the rebels to rally around one candidate; and who should that be? Without any agreement in a split opposition, Delia could even emerge as the frontrunner in an eventual first round among councillors, as happened when he emerged on top of both Chris Said and Alex Perici Calascione in 2017 before beating Said in a vote among members. To avoid the risk of Delia emerging as a frontrunner, the rebels would have to unite around one candidature, paving the way for one decisive vote among party members.

5. The lame duck certainty

Despite the uncertainties faced by the rebel front in an open contest, Delia’s path to winning would be far easier if councillors opt for a sheer confirmation vote. All Delia would have to do then is rally against a negative vote rather than one for an alternative leader. This would thwart the rebels’ attempt to project their battle as one of hope and excitement against despair, while Delia could once again turn the contest into one against the uncertainty of toppling him without a formal challenger. Winning an ‘easier’ prospect for a one-man race would boost Delia’s campaign to regain the trust of party members. Still, even if Delia wins, he has no guarantee of reuniting the party around him. By renewing their trust in Delia, members would be condemning the party to lame duck status, with Delia crippled by the insurrection of the majority of his MPs. Delia would only have proved himself as a successful survivor in his own camp, but with very little chances of victory against his main adversary: the Labour government.