Looking back at 2022 | Bernard Grech: entrenching the PN’s minority status

The Nationalist Party last won an absolute majority in 2003 as a pro-EU coalition uniting liberals, conservatives and people who aspired for broader horizons for their children. This gave the party the edge despite rampant corruption, environmental degradation and cronyism. And while Labour remained strong in its heartlands, its anti-EU stance alienated young people and the tertiary-educated gave the PN the edge.

The conservative lure

Twenty years down the line, the Nationalist Party is increasingly restricted to a conservative core and is led by a lame duck leader who refused to go after being severely beaten in the polls in a campaign which clearly exposed his shortcomings in terms of depth and debating skills.

The party may have rediscovered a sense of unity and purpose in opposing a timid reform of abortion laws aimed at protecting the life and health of mothers from grave jeopardy. But this stance may further alienate key demographics like the tertiary educated and younger voters, a large segment of which has already opted at not voting in the last general election which saw the PN losing 12,000 votes from its 2017 tally. Moreover, disenchanted Labourities preferred not voting to shifting PN, which explains why the PL lost 8000 votes from its 2017 tally. And despite a horrid track record on governance, Labour is more in tune with a country which is un-recognisable from the one it inherited in 2013. In short while the PN is entrenching itself as a minority, Labour under Abela has consolidated itself as a big tent party.

One way out of the quandary would be for the PN to refashion itself as a broad conservative alliance appealing to disenchanted socially conservative Labourites who like President George Vella and President Emeritus Marie Louise Coleiro Preca are adamant in opposing abortion. Yet history shows that Labour has a remarkable ability of retaining traditional voters while topping up this voting base with support from an assortment of strategic categories including social liberals, LGBTIQ activists segments of the business class and even a large segment of floating voters. And even if this strategy is successful the PN risks importing a breed of voters averse to the European project, at the risk of alienating moderate voters. And the PN risks guilt by association if it is forced in to a culture war against feminists and liberals by an assortment of fascists, ultra conservatives and conspiracy theorists, which would be inevitable if the pro-life movement opts to gather signatures for an abrogative referendum on the government’s cautious abortion reform. For in a bid not to be drowned by voices to the right of the PN, Bernard Grech will be increasingly tempted to radicalise his stance; as was evident in his misguided parliamentary speech mocking Andrea Prudente, a mother who lost her child. And even if the referendum is won by the conservative front, the PN will still suffer the fall out in terms of support from key demographics. And if the referendum is lost, the blow for the conservative forces would be even more devastating then the watershed divorce referendum.

How Labour pulled the rug from under the PN’s feet

The other way out of the quandary would be for the PN to work hard to rebuild the coalition of voters which crowned its victory in 2013. Crucial to this would be for the party to accept internal pluralism on moral issues while presenting a vision for the country which appeals to segments of Labour and floating voters who want a correction of Labour’s economic model. Yet even here the PN is faced with a changed Labour, one which is very much in tune with the aspirations of the typical center-right vote. Moreover, the PN remains toxic for Labour’s own left-wing critics.

In fact the greatest threat to the PN’s survival is Labour’s ability to morph itself in to a Nationalist lite party with a track record of managing the economy during a pandemic and a war. And if the PN continues ignoring the writing on the wall; its very survival may be in question. And by persisting on leading the party after being trounced in an election in which he was clearly outshone by Abela, Bernard Grech has further denied the party the crisis it needed to resolve its identity question.

For what the party may need now is a clear choice between leaders; one between old school conservatism and a more liberal disposition anchored in European values.

Yet the question remains; with the party still in a downward spiral: will anyone throw the name in the hat before the next election?

The opportunity may well arise if the party fails to win three seats in the next MEP elections, a result which will trigger another confirmation vote for Grech. But can the party afford a change of leadership again midway through this legislature and would anyone be even interested in drinking from the poisoned chalice in a viper’s den?