Whatever the outcome of this election: Europe will swing to the right

You’d never guess just from reading all the local press coverage: but there’s a heck of a lot more riding on next weekend’s election, than the mere question of whether ‘Labour will get more EP seats in the European Parliament, than the PN’.

Indeed, you could argue that there is a lot more to this election, than even the European Parliament itself. Among other things, there is also the choice of who (if anyone at all) will replace Ursula von der Leyen as outgoing European Commission President: a decision that may radically alter Europe’s entire political landscape, for the foreseeable future.

Oh, and there’s also the small matter of whether all Europe’s so-called ‘mainstream’ political parties – specifically, members of the EPP, PES, Greens, Liberals, etc. – will even survive the aftermath, of what promises to be an electoral bloodbath (and the prospects are not looking particularly good, right now, for the last two on that list…)

Simply put: this election is no longer about ‘choosing candidates to represent us in the European Parliament’; it’s now about ‘choosing which political direction the entire European Union is about to take’.

And in good-old EU fashion: it turns out not to be very much of a ‘choice’, at all!

As things stand, there are only two plausible outcomes of next weekend’s election. (OK, twist my arm: maybe three… but I’ll come back to that one later).

Europe will either swing, wholesale, all the way to the Extreme Right; or, at best, it will swing to a point on the political compass that is not quite as ‘extreme’; but pretty far right, all the same.

And in case you are (understandably enough) reluctant to simply take my word for it… most of what I just wrote emerges directly from various surveys, conducted in various parts of Europe, that ALL predict a massive drop in support for mainstream parties; and a corresponding surge in support for the Extreme Right.

More worryingly [note: I am well aware that I represent a minority, when I express concern at the prospect of a resurgent ‘Fascist Europe’; but what the heck? I’m the one writing this article; so you’ll just have to put up with my biases for a while] most of those surveys also indicate that Extreme Right parties might even end up enjoying a collective MAJORITY, in the incoming European Parliament.

That is to say: the EPP might no longer be the largest political group in the EP, after this election; which also means it wouldn’t be in a position to (almost) unilaterally appoint the next European Commission President, as it did five years ago.

Now: just to be clear, those Extreme Right parties would still have to reach an agreement, between themselves, if they are to proceed from ‘enjoying a parliamentary majority’, to actually becoming ‘the single largest political family in Europe’ (thus wielding practically all the EU’s major decision-making processes, almost single-handedly).

And while that may prove to be a stumbling block – especially considering how divergent some of those parties actually are, on key policy matters – it would still catapult what was previously a ‘fringe’ political movement, into the equivalent of Europe’s undisputed ‘king-makers’.

Under those circumstances, forming a majority in the European Parliament would have to involve ‘roping in the Extreme Right’, to at least some degree or other. Needless to say, this has not escaped the attention of either the Extreme Right itself; or of all Europe’s other mainstream parties (some of which will probably be sitting at the negotiation table with them, in just over a week’s time.)

Already, then, it can be seen that a ‘swing to the Right’ is more or less inevitable, at this stage. So the only question left is: ‘how far to the Right, exactly, will the pendulum swing?’

Well, the answer depends on various, interrelated factors. Let’s start with the obvious: just how well are these far-right parties expected to perform, in this particular election?

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that they DO end up controlling an outright majority of seats in the EP. In that case, the answer would depend on whether Viktor Orban is successful in his efforts to convince France’s Marine Le Pen and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni to form what he calls a ‘right-wing EU super-group’.

In the Hungarian prime minister’s own words: “the future of the sovereignist camp in Europe, and of the right in general, now rests in the hands of two women,” and “[if the French far-right figurehead and Italian leader work together] within a single group or a coalition, they will be a force for Europe.”

Make no mistake: the word ‘force’ is not to be underestimated. Always assuming these predictions come true: Orban, Le Pen and Meloni (and all their henchmen/minions) would find themselves occupying the same position currently held by the EPP. They would, in a word, be the ones appointing the next Commission President (hint: it won’t be Ursula); and – much more importantly – they’d be the ones to lay out the EU’s basic legal/political direction, for all other EU institutions (including the Courts of Justice) to implement.

By extension: they will also be the ones initiating ‘infringement procedures’ against individual member states (for infringements, by the way, of the same EU laws that they will very soon be drafting themselves); and they will be the ones responsible for the ‘implementation of decisions taken by the European Parliament’ (which, naturally, they also control).

Anyway, you get the overall picture. If Europe swings any further to the Extreme Right, than that… it may as well change its emblem to a Swastika, and get it over with. ‘Nuff said.

This leaves us, naturally, with a couple of other, less overtly tragic scenarios. Let’s say, for the sake of another argument, that Orban’s vision of a ‘rightwing EU super group’ fails to materialise… but the Extreme Right still controls a majority of seats in the EP.

Well, we don’t need to look too far, to work out what would happen. The Commission’s current President has already – on multiple occasions, please note – signalled her intention to (as a Politico headline put it) ‘open the door to Europe’s hard right’. During a recent debate, “she indicated she would be open to a deal with the [Meloni-backed] European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group after this summer’s EU-wide election.”

Elsewhere, she has actively courted Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, for a possible future political alliance: which didn’t go down too well with some of the other mainstream parties she is already allied with; nor even, it seems, with some of her own colleagues in the EPP.

This brings me directly to that third option I had mentioned earlier. The European Socialists have now warned Ursula von der Leyen that “they won’t back her for a second term as European Commission president if she continues to suggest she could work with hard-right MEPs aligned with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni”…

… and they reportedly even have a replacement candidate in mind: former Italian PM Maro Draghi.

There are, however, two small snags. The first is, very simply, that – according to virtually all Europe’s polls and surveys, at any rate – the European Socialists have about as much chance of achieving that goal, as I would have of beating the Incredible Hulk (or even Bruce Banner, if it comes to it) in an arm-wrestling competition.

The second is that German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz hasn’t, to the best of my knowledge, explained how he intends to actually achieve his stated aim: i.e., that “when the next Commission is formed, it must not be based on a majority that also needs the support of the far right;” and that “the only way to establish a Commission presidency will be to base it on the traditional parties.”

Erm… sorry to ask, but: how does Olaf Scholtz think he can physically form this EP majority, that would be required to get his ‘revolution’ off the ground…

… without roping in ANY of the extreme right parties, which would by then occupy an outright EP majority of their own?

Mathematically, it just doesn’t add up. Even if Ursula von der Leyen IS replaced… her substitute can only realistically be someone who enjoys at least SOME form of backing, from Europe’s Far Right.

And not only does this exclude Mario Draghi, out of hand… it also pre-emptively conditions any incoming European Commission President, who would now – even if it remains Ursula, after all – be constrained to implement the recommendations of a quintessentially ‘rightwing’ European Parliament, to begin with.

As you can easily see for yourselves: ALL the possible scenarios, explored in this article, just happen to land the European Union infinitely further to the right, than it is today…

… which also places the whole of Europe infinitely further to the right, than it has been since… well, since the days when Europe’s emblem almost DID become a Swastika (with consequences that were so utterly catastrophic, than we’ve been trying – and failing – to ‘get over it’, ever since…)

But, hey! In the interest of ending this on a slightly more optimistic note: there are still seven days to go, before the election itself. And while it may be highly unlikely, all things considered… there is a still a chance - however small - that those polls might be proven wrong, in the end.

Just saying, that’s all…