
2025: A shaken duopoly... but will it be enough? | Kurt Borg
This year marked interesting developments in the ambitions of key individuals who seem to be upping the ante when it comes to aspiring for a seat in power

Kurt Borg lectures in policy, politics and governance at the University of Malta and was asked by MaltaToday for his views on the political landscape.
It has not been a particularly good year for Labour, but nor could it be said that it was a good one for the Nationalist Party. Yet, paradoxically, both were celebrating the result of this year’s EP election back in June.
The Labour Party reiterated its message that it remains the people’s choice, having emerged as the largest party. The PN emphasised that the significant reduction of the gap between the parties to just under 8,500 votes was an indication that Labour is losing people’s trust and people are starting to consider the PN as a government in waiting.
However, it must be said that this election was a European election, which cannot be taken as a straightforward indicator of where people’s loyalties lie, especially since in EP elections, voters tend to experiment much more with their vote than they would in a general election.
The same could be said of the results obtained by ‘third parties’ and independent candidates. It was a particularly good performance by Arnold Cassola, making it to the 34th count with close to 24,000 votes (and 12,706 first-count votes). Also, interesting numbers were registered by former Labour mayor turned independent candidate Conrad Borg Manchè and ultranationalist head of Imperium Europa Norman Lowell, who received around 6,000 first-count votes each. This scenario might beg questions on how firm the hold of Malta’s political duopoly remains, a conversation that often picks up around election season but tends to fizzle out within a few months.
But this cannot be said this time round. This year marked interesting developments in the ambitions of key individuals who seem to be upping the ante when it comes to aspiring for a seat in power. For example, Il-Kollettiv was launched earlier in 2024 as an initiative that works closely with residents’ groups, particularly on putting up resistance to construction works in villages and towns but is also vocal on issues of social justice and precarity.
Having teased their aspirations to have a political party wing, Il-Kollettiv’s strategy could prove effective in the long run as it works to create solid community ties from where key electoral candidates could emerge who enjoy a great deal of local support. In fact, such political activity is attracting individuals from different backgrounds (including those with red and blue alliances) who are recognising that effective mobilisation can be done that goes beyond PN and PL.
The Zammit Lupi effect
At a local government level, an interesting development from this year’s local council elections is not just that the PL lost a number of seats despite its victory by 20,000 votes, but also that ADPD won two council seats, with leader Sandra Gauci only needing to inherit a few votes to get elected on the St Paul’s Bay council, and Ralph Cassar being re-elected on the Attard council. Perhaps this result was ADPD’s highlight for this year, after a frustrating EP result that saw them get just over 3,000 first count votes in all, less than half of what the former Greens leader Cassola obtained.
Another important achievement in the local elections was the ‘Zammit Lupi effect’ in Ħaż-Żebbug, with mother and son getting elected as independent candidates. It remains to be seen to what extent such independent councillors (and a number of other independents who were elected in other localities) can prove effective and remain visible, instilling in people the idea that politics beyond PN-PL is indeed possible.
Fragmentation
One also wonders whether the struggles of ‘third parties’ to make significant in-roads in the Maltese political environment can be attributed to rifts and unfruitful disagreements between factions within the progressive, centre-left and left front. Such fragmentation could serve more as a barrier to effective intervention within the political scene rather than representing diversification and plurality in candidatures.
Ultimately, having a coherent strategy is more important to obtaining power than individual initiatives. Which is why the recent announcement of a new political party which is calling itself progressive (Partit Malta Progressiva), with centre-left liberal leanings and which claims to being more than just another small party, could be an interesting development.
It remains to be seen what role, if any, figures like Cassola, Borg Manchè, Cyrus Engerer and the Zammit Lupis, as well as other individuals from Il-Kollettiv and possibly ADPD, will play within this political party.
Though surely it would be a missed opportunity if alliances across these fronts are not made as, ultimately, aspiring to be a political player at a national level requires resources, time, expertise and capacity building, which are factors that could overwhelm an individual or a small organisation, and thereby limiting the reach of those contenders.
The third-party challenge
A great challenge of any ‘third party’ contender will be how effective they will be in becoming a solid presence in the Maltese political landscape. This will depend on the airtime they are given, their good use of discussion fora, being able to articulate their positions effectively, reaching communities and having the tact and the stamina to maintain the momentum. Moreover, ADPD and Il-Kollettiv have been strongly arguing in favour of electoral reform that secures proportional representation in order to create a fairer political system.
The President’s speech on Republic Day echoed a similar sentiment when she called for better correlation between first count votes and seats in Parliament. Perhaps this could be a (re-)start of the call for a constitutional reform process, which was attempted by the previous President, George Vella, but on which no progress was made since, as he had said, there was no agreement on who would lead this constitutional convention.
Forcing Abela’s hand
The Maltese political climate is certainly not an easy one to intervene in. Seeing the emotions and tension that the return of Joseph Muscat in the headlines brought throughout this year, it remains clear that the contemporary political discourse is still haunted by the spectres of the Muscat era.
Leadership within the Labour Party throughout this year had to contend with people loyal to Muscat, forcing Prime Minister Robert Abela’s hand in various ways, not least the ambivalent embrace of Muscat back in the fold, being used by Labour as a risky ‘wild card’ to invigorate Laborites to vote and endorse a number of candidates. With a series of boxing and tsunami metaphors, Muscat’s presence felt like a blast from the recent past that hijacked people’s attention and the headlines. Further cracks appeared in Abela’s leadership when it came to his U-turns with regard to the Jean Paul Sofia public inquiry and his decision on the resignation of former minister Clayton Bartolo.
PN benefits if PL loses votes
It is also not clear how and whether the PN in opposition is capitalising from the cracks that emerged within Labour throughout 2024. Among the PN’s greatest moments this year were Roberta Metsola’s powerful EP election result, being the most popular candidate, and her re-election as President of the European Parliament.
However, it is unclear how and whether ‘the Metsola effect’ is trickling down to strengthen the PN’s performance at the national level. Also, with the exception of the hospitals saga, it seems that the most forceful opposition keeps coming from civil society organisations and individuals rather than the PN. The bad trust ratings that Opposition leader Bernard Grech keeps getting survey after survey makes it seem like the only way in which the PN could be a government in waiting is only if Labour manages to keep losing votes.
The PN further undermines its credibility on issues such as the environment, as evidenced by its handling of the Villa Rosa local plan change and its vote on the Fort Chambray development application.