Labour back in pole position with 12,000-vote lead over PN as Momentum breaks new ground

SUMMARY

The Labour Party has managed to claw back lost ground with the first MaltaToday survey of 2025 showing it ahead of the Nationalist Party by 11,613 votes.

The four-point lead reverses the one-point deficit the PL had in November’s survey when it trailed the PN. The current survey is based on a projected turnout of 75.5%.

The PL now scores a relative majority of 48.2% against the PN’s 43.9%. But despite recovering support, the PL’s strength remains significantly lower than its 2022 general election performance when it obtained an absolute majority and a 39,000-vote lead.

The survey coincided with increased political tension over a reform of magisterial inquiries and the receipt of the first pay cheques and benefits that reflected the budget tax cut and higher social outlays, including pensions.

The survey also shows that Momentum, a new party launched only last month by Arnold Cassola and a team of activists, is already leaving its mark on the political scene. The centrist formation scored 4%, slightly higher than ADPD which retains most of its support. Collectively, the two parties command the support of over 7% of voters.

The MaltaToday survey also confirms the unpopularity of PN leader Bernard Grech, who now trails Robert Abela by a staggering 22 points up from 18 points in November. Moreover, in another indication of the post budget feel-good factor, respondents gave the government a satisfactory rating of 2.9 out of 5, up from 2.7 in November.

VOTING INTENTIONS: PL steams ahead with a relative majority as Momentum captures 4%

The Labour Party is leading the Nationalist Party by 4.3 points, which translates to an advantage of 11,613 votes on a projected turnout of 75.5%.

The first MaltaToday national survey for 2025 shows Labour still falling short of an absolute majority, scoring 48.2% against the PN’s 43.9%.

Compared to the last MaltaToday survey held in November, immediately after the budget, the PL has gained 2.9 points and the PN has lost 2.4 points.

The share of other parties has remained stable at 7.9% compared to 8.3% in November. But notably, the survey shows Momentum, a new political party founded by former independent candidate Arnold Cassola, at 4%, surpassing ADPD which still garners 3.4% despite the competition.

The survey suggests that the PL had a delayed post budget boost since it was in January that people started to feel impact of measures that left them with more money in their pockets. This has enabled Labour, which was trailing the PN by a single point in November, to surpass its rival again with a clear four-point advantage. 

The survey suggests that Labour has not been penalised by the ongoing controversary over a reform of magisterial inquiries, even if the party’s support remains substantially lower than its 2022 general election score of 55.1%.

In numerical terms, the PL, which was trailing the PN by 2,647 votes in November, is now leading by 11,613 votes. The difference between the two major parties is substantially lower than the total share obtained by third parties collectively (21,196 votes).

The survey results show that if a general election were to be held now, the turnout would be 75.5%, down from 83.2% in the last general election but up five points from an estimated turnout of 70.6% recorded in MaltaToday’s November survey.

Shifts between parties cancel each other

Once again the PL’s decreased support from 2022 levels is attributable to a higher abstention rate among past Labour voters.
But the survey also shows that voters are not static in their allegiances. The shifts between the two main parties are nearly cancelling each other out. While 9.9% of PL voters in 2022 will now vote PN, 10.1% of PN voters will now vote for the PL.

This also suggests that despite Robert Abela’s increasingly partisan tone, the PL still manages to lure a tenth of 2022 PN voters. However, this is offset by 9.9% of 2022 PL voters, who are moving towards the PN.

But Labour still loses more of its 2022 voters to abstention than the PN. The PL loses more than a fifth of its 2022 voters (21.1%) to abstention, while the PN loses 13.5% to abstention.

Where the PN seems to be penalised more is losses to the smaller parties. In fact, while Labour is losing 3.5% of its 2022 voters to small parties, the PN is losing 6.5% of its 2022 voters to ADPD, Momentum and others. This is partly offset by gains that the PN is making among those who did not vote in 2022. The survey shows that 20.7% of non-voters will now vote PN compared to 15.6% who will vote for the PL.

Overall, the PN still benefits from a higher retention rate of 2022 general election voters – 69.9%. The PL retains 65.5% of its 2022 voters.

While the survey shows Labour strengthening its position since November, the results strongly indicate that the PN has substantially narrowed Labour’s 39,000-vote advantage in the 2022 general election.

Compared to the general election, the survey suggests that the PL has lost a staggering 33,377 votes, which are now mostly parked in the non-voter camp. However, the PN also loses 5,516 votes from its 2022 tally. While both major parties are losing votes, third party voters have increased by a remarkable 11,888 votes to reach the 21,196-vote mark. Non-voters have also increased by a staggering 27,423 votes from 2022.

PN leads in Gozo and the northern districts

The survey shows the PN leading  in the Northern, North Harbour and Gozo regions, while the PL still leads by a very  wide margin in the South-eastern region and by a lower margin in the South Harbour. The survey also shows Labour overtaking the PN in the Western region where the PN was leading by a small margin in November.

The PN's support peaks in the Northern region, which includes Mosta and St Paul’s Bay, where the party commands a relative majority of 44.2% and is leading the PL by a staggering 19 points. But the PN is only leading Labour by 2.3 points in the North Harbour which includes Sliema, Birkirkara and Qormi.

In Gozo, the only region corresponding to an electoral district, the PN is leading Labour by  a substantial 15 points, confirming the results of a recent regional survey, which had a much more reliable sample of 666 Gozitan respondents. The regional survey showed the PN leading by six points.

The February survey finds that support for Labour remains rock solid in the South-eastern region, where the party leads the PN by a remarkable 36.8 points. In a clear indication that voters in this region remain allergic to the PN, the party only scores 17%. This region includes Żejtun, Marsaskala and Birżebbuġa.

The PL is less dominant in the South Harbour region, which includes the traditional Cottonera stronghold. In the South Harbour, the PL leads the PN by 11.5 points.

Pensioners and young people prefer Labour

Compared to November, Labour has registered major gains among over 65-year-olds. While in this age cohort the two parties were neck to neck in the last survey, the PL now enjoys a healthy 17-point lead. This could reflect improvements in pensions and other old age benefits as a result of the budget. The PL also leads by eight points among 16- to 35-year-olds, where the third-party vote is strongest and abstention is highest.

In contrast, the two major parties are running neck to neck among 36- to 50-year-olds and the PN is now leading by five points among 51- to 65-year-olds.

This suggests that despite the tax cut, Labour still struggles among people at the peak or the autumn of their careers in what could be an indication that inflation is still eating into the purchasing power of these categories.

The survey also finds the PL leading among primary, secondary and post-secondary voters but the PN leads by a substantial 20 points among the tertiary educated. This suggests that while Labour still enjoys widespread working class support it is shunned by graduates among which support for the Labour party drops to 22%. Support for the PL increases to over 53% among those with a secondary level of education. Significantly Labour has restored its lead among those who have not attended university but have followed a post-secondary course. In this strategic category, support for Labour has increased from 25% in November to 33.7% now.

The rise of Momentum

In their first showing in a MaltaToday survey, Momentum, a new centrist party launched last month by perennial third party candidate Arnold Cassola and a new team of activists, is scoring slightly above ADPD at 4%.

The survey shows that Momentum scores its best result among tertiary educated and young voters. The survey shows the new party garnering the support of 7% of tertiary educated voters and the support of 6% of under 35-year-old voters.

But Momentum has made very limited inroads among secondary educated voters (1.1%) and post-secondary educated voters (2.6%).

The new party also takes a larger share of PN voters than Labour voters. While 4% of PN voters in 2022 opt for Momentum, only 1.5% of Labour voters in 2022 opt for Cassola’s party.

Despite competition from the new kid on the block, ADPD has only seen in its support drop by less than a point from November. This is an indication that Momentum is not simply eating into the green vote.

And while Momentum is stronger among former PN voters, ADPD attracts an equal percentage of PN and PL voters (around 2% each).

ADPD also remains stronger than Momentum among respondents with a post-secondary level of education. Among this category, composed of people with a technical or vocational education, support for the Greens peaks at 6%.

On a regional level, Momentum is strongest in the Nationalist leaning Northern region where 6% of voters opt for the new party. In this region Momentum has eclipsed the Greens that score less than 1%.

But the party also makes inroads in the Labour leaning South Harbour region, where nearly 4% opt for the new party. Surprisingly, the survey shows support for third parties at 8.3% in this region comprised of traditional Labour strongholds. ADPD still performs better than Momentum in the North Harbour and Western districts. But support for both parties falls to 2% in Gozo and to just 1% in the South-eastern region.

TRUST BAROMETER: Robert Abela leads Bernard Grech by 22 points

Prime Minister Robert Abela is still significantly more trusted to run the country than Opposition leader Bernard Grech, despite Labour leading by only four points.

The first MaltaToday Trust Barometer for 2025 shows that Abela is trusted by 46.8%, up 3.6 points from November. Trust in Opposition leader Bernard Grech has remained stable at 25% while those who trust neither of the two leaders have decreased by three points.

This means that the trust gap between Abela and Grech has increased from 16 points in September to 18 points in November and 22 points now.

This suggests that Abela’s appeal to the grassroots in the past weeks and his more aggressive stance in confronting the Opposition has paid off. But the trust boost for Abela could also be a reflection of the feel-good factor generated by the income tax cut and other budgetary measures, including improved pensions and old age benefits.

While the survey confirms Abela’s strong advantage over Grech, it also suggests that Grech’s poor rating is not deterring a sizeable number of voters, who trust neither of the two leaders, from voting for the Nationalist Party in a forthcoming general election. In fact, 26.9% of current PN voters trust neither leader and surprisingly 11.2% trust Abela more than Grech but would still vote PN.

And while only 61.9% of current PN voters trust Grech, 88.1% of current Labour voters trust Abela.

What is definitely bad news for the Nationalists is Grech’s extremely low standing among current non-voters – a strategic category where the PN needs to make inroads to secure victory in the next general election. In this sizeable category, only 10.7% trust Grech to run the country, while 37.6% trust Abela. This suggests that Labour has more room to grow in this vital category than the PN does.

Abela leads in five of six regions

Despite Labour trailing the PN in three out of six regions, Abela leads Grech in all regions except Gozo. However, his lead over Grech ranges from 52 points in the South-eastern region, to 12.6 points in the North Harbour.

While the Prime Minister’s trust rating peaks in the South Harbour region, where he is trusted by a staggering 65.6% of respondents, Grech’s popularity peaks in Gozo, where he is trusted by 36.9%.

The highest percentage of voters who trust neither of the two leaders is found in the South Harbour region, where 32.2% trust neither Grech nor Abela to run the country, followed by Gozo, where 31.1% trust neither leader.

Abela leads in all age groups

The survey confirms Bernard Grech’s difficulty in communicating with 16- to 35-year-olds. In this category only 15.4% trust the PN leader with running the country compared to 45.5% who trust Abela. In this cohort a significant 39.1% do not trust either of the two leaders.

In contrast, only 14.6% of over 65-year-olds trust neither of the two leaders. But in this category, while Grech is seen as the most trusted leader by 32%, Abela is trusted by an absolute majority of 53.4%. Compared to the November survey, Abela’s trust rating in this category has increased by three points. This is another indication that the grey vote has shifted towards Labour in the past months.

Significantly, the survey also shows Abela leading Grech among voters of all educational backgrounds, including those with a tertiary level of education. But while among the latter Abela is trusted by 31.9%, his rating increases to a staggering 56.4% among those with a secondary level of education and 59.9% among those with a primary level.

The most distrustful of both leaders were respondents with a post-secondary education amongst which 40.7% trust neither of the two leaders. But in a worrying sign for the PN the party leader is only trusted by 19.7% of this strategic category of voters.

GOV. PERFORMANCE BAROMETER: Rating increases to 2.9 out of 5

Respondents have given the government a mean score of 2.9 out of 5 when asked to rate the administration's performance. This represents an increase of 0.2 over the result obtained in the November survey and is the highest ever score since the performance barometer started being recorded.

Respondents were asked to give the government led by Robert Abela a score of between 0 (very bad) and 5 (very good).

The government enjoys the highest rating (3.2) among pensioners, a clear indication of a post budget shift in attitude among this cohort.

A regional breakdown confirms difficulties facing government in Gozo, where its rating (2.6) is lower than the rest of the regions in Malta. Government’s rating peaks in the South-eastern region at 3.4.

A breakdown by education shows that government’s rating is lowest among the tertiary educated (2.5) and highest among those with a secondary level (3.1) and primary level of education (3.3).

Crucially, the government is still given a favourable rating of 2.7 by current non-voters. Not surprisingly though, while Labour voters give Abela’s government a superlative rating of 4.2, this decreases to a meagre 1.8 among PN voters.

In an indication of increased polarisation, while 26% of PN voters give the government a rating of 0 out of 5, a remarkable 41% of PL voters give Abela’s government full marks.