Brussels horse-trading: Metsola could net second presidency

Last year, Nationalist MEP Roberta Metsola made history when she became the youngest-ever president of the European Parliament. But little might have prepared the 44-year-old centre-right politician for what was yet to come: the war in Ukraine, and the Qatargate corruption scandal. 

Many would agree that Metsola’s star quality has re-energised the role of EP president. She might have not breezed through every single challenge before her, such as the call for better accountability for lobbies in Qatargate. 

But she has become a leading voice of support for Ukraine, calling for full EU membership for the former Soviet nation. And her connection with young audiences speaks volumes of Metsola’s political pulling power. 

Now, she is being lined up for a second term at the helm of the European Parliament. In the game of political horse-trading for the top positions in Europe, little might change for Metsola or Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. 

The future power line-up in Brussels, typically shared between the major political blocs, is a whispered secret: Portugal’s socialist prime minister Antonio Costa, hailed by his country’s press Expresso and Público as “a star of the Socialists”, is tapped to be the next president of the European Council; the foreign affairs post of External Representative would move into the hands of a Renew politician, the European liberals under the sway of French prime minister Emanuel Macron; and for the EPP, no change at the top – Ursula von der Leyen and Metsola get reconfirmed for second mandates. 

Without doubt, Metsola’s effectiveness as parliament chief makes it unlikely that she could return as a backbencher in Brussels, unless she decided to hang up those shows to take over her party’s leadership in Malta – but where is the vacancy? 

What is certain is that not a few MEPs in the various political groups in Brussels feel Metsola deserves the mandate a second time, just like the precedent set by former socialist MEP Martin Schulz. 

The leader of the EPP group and party, Manfred Weber, had himself floated Metsola as a possible Spitzenkandidat – the lead candidate in European elections – for the EPP. But having himself been pipped for that prize when Council ministers decided to pick Von der Leyen, it is likely that Weber was simply kite flying.  

It is likely that Von der Leyen too will be returned as EC president in an election which the EPP are slated to win. This role has always been handed to someone with governmental experience, which is why the EU’s prime ministers chose Germany’s defence minister to head the Commission, ignoring Weber’s pretensions as spitzenkandidat. 

Potentially, Metsola could be the EPP’s lead candidate in the coming European elections. But it is unlikely that the Labour administration, under pressure over so many governance scandals and seeking a convincing electoral win in 2024, would nominate an Opposition politician to the Commission. It is more likely that Robert Abela could nominate someone with a proven track record such as deputy prime minister Chris Fearne, who as health minister successfully stewarded Malta’s response to the COVID pandemic.