PN could lose seven parliamentary seats, Schiavone warns after MaltaToday survey

Nationalist Party MP Hermann Schiavone wants parliamentary group to discuss MaltaToday’s survey results as he sounds dire warning over 90,000 vote difference

Nationalist MP Hermann Schiavone
Nationalist MP Hermann Schiavone

Nationalist MPs have been warned that the party risks losing seven parliamentary seats after MaltaToday’s latest poll showed a 30-point gap between the major parties.

The dire warning came in a note penned by MP Hermann Schiavone, who gave colleagues a brief analysis of the results.

The survey out yesterday put the PN at 22.1%, one-point less than it was a month ago. The Labour Party’s support stood at 51.9%, an almost three-point increase over the previous month.

In his note, which was leaked to MaltaToday, Schiavone said the 30-point gap would roughly translate into a 90,000-vote difference between the parties. According to his analysis based on the outcome of the last general election, the result could mean a loss of seven parliamentary seats for the PN, with a possibility of recovering between two and four seats when proportionality kicks in.

READ ALSO: MaltaToday Survey | Labour support continues to increase, PN’s remains static

Schiavone’s note also includes the “vulnerable” districts where the PN is likely to lose seats. These are the 5th, 12th, 8th, 11th and 9th districts, in the most probable order the loss of seats will happen. 

Contacted by MaltaToday for his comment, Schiavone said it was normal for him to send a note to the parliamentary group with a brief analysis and political commentary after every survey that is published.

“However, I will not comment on that which I share with the rest of my friends in the parliamentary group. What I share with the parliamentary group is meant for internal consumption,” Schiavone said, declining to elaborate on the views he expressed in the email.

I hope the leadership organises a parliamentary group meeting so that together we decide on how to save the party Hermann Schiavone

In his note, Schiavone called for an internal political evaluation of the results and hoped the leadership will organise a parliamentary group meeting to specifically discuss the matter.

“I believe that in a calm way we should carry out a political analysis because despite the good work being done by many of us (especially Claudio [Grech]) we lost two percentage points since the last survey. We have to see why, despite Robert Abela’s bad performance and the fact that people are starting to suffer, the PL has increased its tally by two points,” Schiavone wrote.

He then impressed on his colleagues the “big responsibility” they shouldered to ensure they left behind a party capable of winning an election.

“I appeal, so that together and in a calm way, everybody understands that the party’s best interest comes before our personal interest. I hope the leadership organises a parliamentary group meeting so that together we decide on how to save the party,” Schiavone ended his note.

The PN suffered a crushing defeat in last year's European Parliament and local elections that led to Adrian Delia's leadership being challenged unsuccessfully
The PN suffered a crushing defeat in last year's European Parliament and local elections that led to Adrian Delia's leadership being challenged unsuccessfully

Schiavone is a loyalist of PN leader Adrian Delia but sources within the party said some within the parliamentary group have interpreted his call for reflection as an attempt to distance himself from the leader.

However, others within the party were less inclined to attribute such intentions to Schiavone, insisting the note was an objective analysis of a dire situation. “His is a call on everyone in the party to shoulder responsibility, something Hermann has been saying for long,” a source close to the parliamentary group said.

Surveys carried out by MaltaToday show that the PN’s highest result since Delia became leader in 2017, was achieved in May 2018 when the party polled 32.1%.

However, this was the only time it surpassed the 30% mark.

Additionally, Delia’s trust rating has been dismal when compared to Robert Abela and his predecessor Joseph Muscat.

After last year's crushing defeat in the European Parliament and local elections, Delia's leadership was challenged without success. Another rebellion risked destabilising the party last February when polls showed the PN leader's failure to improve his trust rating despite the massive political crisis that shook government.

Delia soldiered on but there were several changes within the party structure, including the election of a new secretary-general - Francis Zammit Dimech - and a reshuffle of portfolios.