MaltaToday Survey | Labour support continues to increase, PN’s remains static

Support for the Labour Party has continued to increase during a time of economic and social disruption caused by COVID-19, a MaltaToday survey shows. 

The party’s strength stands at 51.9%, an almost three-point increase over the previous month. 

The result means that support for the PL has reached its highest level since August 2018, a time when the Egrant inquiry findings were published and the party scored 52%. 

Support for the Nationalist Party has dropped by one point to 22.1%, while Alternattiva Demokratika and the Democratic Party enjoy a combined 1.1%. 

Given the PN’s static performance and the PL’s progress, the gap between the major parties now stands at 29.8 points, its widest in more than two years. 

The survey was conducted between 11 and 15 May, the week following the lifting of the first set of restrictions on non-essential shops. 

The numbers show that 3.9% of Nationalist Party voters in the 2017 election are now willing to vote for Labour. 

But the PN continues to be hampered by the lack of conviction among its supporters with 23.2% of those who voted for it in the last election, claiming they are uncertain what to do now, and 14.5% saying they will not vote. 

This has been a recurring phenomenon since Adrian Delia took over the helm of the party in September 2017. His leadership has been characterised by infighting and dissent that has alienated supporters. 

The PL trumps the PN among women and men, across all ages and all regions. 

The PL’s strongest showing is among those aged between 51 and 65, where the party scores 60% against the PN’s 26.8%. 

The PL’s strongest showing is among those aged between 51 and 65, where the party scores 60% against the PN’s 26.8%. Labour’s weakest showing is among those aged between 36 and 50, where it registers 44.6% against the PN’s 20%

Labour’s weakest showing is among those aged between 36 and 50, where it registers 44.6% against the PN’s 20%. 

The PN’s strongest showing is among those aged 65 and over, where it registers 30.2%, against the PL’s 58.2%. The Opposition party’s weakest performance is among the young (18-35), where it scores 14.4% against the PL’s 47.1%. 

PL strongest in south east 

On a regional basis, the PL’s strongest result is in the South-Eastern region where it registers 73%. This region comprises towns that make up the Third and Fifth electoral districts, where the party in government has strengthened its hold. 

The PL’s next strongest showing is the Southern Harbour, where it picks up 57.8% of the vote. However, despite this result, the party’s strength is less pronounced, an indication that it may be experiencing problems with its grassroots in what is its traditional stronghold. 

The survey shows that 14.5% of people in the Southern Harbour region do not know how they will vote, while 12.8% say they will not vote if an election is held tomorrow. 

The PN’s best result is in Gozo where it registers 37%, trailing the PL by almost five points. 

Its worst result is in the South-Eastern region where it knocks up 12.3%. The PN’s result in the Southern Harbour region is only marginally better at 13%. 

Methodology 

The survey was carried out between Monday 11 May 2020 and Friday 15 May 2020. 653 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 5% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have a larger margin of error.