Five hurdles Bernard Grech is facing to win over floaters to the PN

The latest MaltaToday survey, conducted among PN members before other potential candidates like Roberta Metsola and Therese Comodini Cachia withdrew their interest in the leadership, clearly shows that Bernard Grech was not simply the choice of the rebel MPs in a chess move against Adrian Delia. His candidature was already making waves in the party’s grassroots before the internal opposition settled on his name.

By clearing the field for him, the parliamentary group is responding to the aspirations of party members, who have shown more trust in Grech than Delia across all electoral districts and overwhelmingly strong in both the Labour-leaning fifth district, which includes Birzebbugia and Zurrieq, and the tenth district, which includes Sliema and St Julian’s. Significantly, he is accepted across the PN’s internal class divide, with members with different levels of education backing him over Delia.

The high trust levels enjoyed by Grech across electoral districts and age groups, and the perception that he is the most likely to bring about unity, suggest that is likely to win the contest with Delia. But what hurdles does he face once elected?

1. His party is seen as a lame duck

Bernard Grech takes over a party considered as having practically no chance of winning the next election. While the party may hope that it could narrow the gap with Labour, the perception that a party with little chance of winning makes a recovery is even more unlikely. And this weakens the party’s appeal, not just among voters, but also amongst potential candidates who would only sacrifice their professional career by jumping on a winning cart. This weakens the party’s appeal to donors and funders who don’t invest in a party with no future.

To succeed Grech needs to ditch the perception that his party is a lost cause. One advantage is that surveys indicate he can heal the PN divide to present the electorate with a united front. Without that, the PN starts at a disadvantage. Re-compacting the Nationalist bloc, Grech could bank on a polls surge with the return of PN voters previously undecided on whether to vote, which could also generate a a ripple effect on the wider electorate.

What Grech cannot afford at this stage is losing Delia loyalists, offsetting gains made with other PN voters. That is why Grech needs to win fairly and squarely, and keeping him on board: any exclusion of Delia would backfire on Grech.

Even if Grech recovers all PN voters in 2017, he will still lose the election with the same margin as Simon Busuttil. That’s why it is vital for Grech to keep traction, moving from compacting the Nationalist vote, to winning over floaters and Labour voters.

Polls will be a challenge for Grech as they register his progress or cripple perceptions without giving him enough time to take difficult decisions in the party’s long-term interests.

2. His front bench is weak and lacks diversity

Grech never served as an MP and lacks experience in party structures. He would take over a party with a limited talent pool in key areas like science, economy, finance and social policy. The party also needs greater diversity, as it is too associated with middle-aged, white, heterosexual male lawyers – just like Grech, a lawyer to boot. He would need a team that has the semblance of a government in waiting, and unfortunately for him, the MPs he inherits are not just demoralised but also poor in both quality and diversity. To succeed Grech needs to co-opt a new generation of party spokespersons from outside parliament to assist his shadow cabinet. This may prove tricky, and could be perceived as a threat to sitting MPs.

3. Grech must make it clear he is in for the long haul

Grech will have to dispel the perception that he is simply holding the pieces together until a new leader is elected after the inevitable defeat of the party in the next election. To give Labour a run for its money, he will have to restore the PN’s own financial fortunes without being slavishly bankrolled by big business, an arduous route that requires a wave of enthusiasm from the moment he gets elected. The key to his success will be his gravitas, which could earn him the respect of rival factions. If he is loved, feared and respected in equal measure, he may well succeed where his predecessors failed.

4. Liberals are uneasy with his anti-divorce baggage

Grech’s first foray in national politics was on the losing side of the divorce referendum. Now he is keen to emphasise that he has changed his opinion over a number of years during which he found himself filing applications for divorce on behalf of clients. Grech is bound to face questions on his judgement in opposing such a civil right, which is considered basic in practically the whole world. His declarations in 2011 are bound to return to haunt him, especially in those instances where his opposition to divorce seemed moulded in an ideological conservatism; one of them was his suggestion that remarried spouses should not contest court orders preventing them from ‘exposing’ their children to their new “same or opposite sex” partners. He now makes a distinction between his stance as a private individual in the 2011 referendum and his new role as politician where he has an obligation “to look at many other aspects and not only the details and difficulties with the legal articles themselves.”

Grech is aware of the need to strike a balance between conservatives and liberals in the PN, arguing that while it is “good to have liberal ideas and thoughts one must also have wisdom and the need to really work for the good of the country and not for the good of the few.” This suggests he is keen on presenting himself as an ‘en-lightened conservative’, someone who can be flexible and compassionate but ready to press the brakes to ensure that change is accompanied by deliberation.

But does Grech still associate the common good with the State’s role as enforcer on moral issues, or is he limiting himself to themes like the environment and social justice where the State intervenes without infringing on personal life choices? Grech may console himself with the way Joseph Muscat was absolved by the electorate on his previous anti-EU membership stance. Like EU membership, equal marriage and divorce are now both a done deal which cannot be reversed.

The problem for Grech is his disposition towards liberal reforms like cannabis legalisation, which may still be in the pipeline. And while Robert Abela may be less keen than Muscat consider venturing towards abortion legalisation, Grech may find him-self tested by a more pluralistic civil society which includes activists who agree with him on defending the common good in the case of environmental and social issues, but favour personal autonomy and freedoms.

Grech will have to decide how pluralistic the PN can be on these issues. Any political leader has to live with a reality where, although most PN voters are to various degrees conservative, the party cannot win without voters who are to various degrees liberal. Alienating a cohort who could potentially vote PN on the basis of other is-sues like the economy and good governance would be suicidal, especially in the absence of an overriding battle-cry like EU membership which had kept the coalition of liberals and conservatives united.

5.The party lacks a compelling vision. He needs to spell it out

Delia never managed to set the tone for his vision. His most notable stands were trying to turn the MEP elections into some abortion referendum and lambast the island’s economic dependency on foreign workers. Yet even these positions were not articulated in a cohesive narrative. Grech’s first declarations suggest that the defence of the “common good” is his starting point, but that association with the 2011 anti-divorce campaign could rankle. The theme has to be expanded to good governance, the protection of the countryside and other resources, and the duty to ensure the sustainability of free healthcare and pensions for future generations.

Grech will face questions on how far he will be willing to restrain market forces to protect the common good: the PN has often found itself running with the hares and hunting with the dogs in the very rare occasions where Labour tried to restrain market forces, as was recently the case with the rent laws, where the party opposed the enforcement powers granted to the Housing Authority.

Grech’s vision needs experts from various fields who can give the party a sense of gravitas in its dealings with civil society. Once again this depends on the party’s ability to appeal to technocrats to flesh out a vision, and even that depends on whether Grech gains traction in the polls in the months to come. Only progress can save the party from being shunned and ostracised.