[ANALYSIS] Why Adrian Delia is bracing for a 100,000-vote defeat

In an interview with Lovin Malta, PN leader Adrian Delia insisted that he won’t resign after next year’s MEP elections even if he loses by 100,000 votes.

“We can lose the MEP election by 90,000 votes or we can lose it by 100,000 votes, we can win all the battleground local councils or we can lose them all, but I won’t even consider resigning. Politics isn’t a game," Delia told his interviewer.

Why is he saying this? The answer is simple. He is sending a clear message to those within the party who have not accepted him as party leader and who still hope that the party will replace him if he is thrashed by Muscat in next year’s elections.

Some will probably not feel at home anymore in the party while others will start feeling more at home in it. But ultimately, no party can recover lost ground if its leader is not allowed to call the shots

What Delia is saying is that he is here to stay until the next general election, which he considers as the real test for his leadership. “Irrespective of the numbers next year, our plan is for the next general election. Next year’s elections will be our first real survey – to redirect us if things go amiss or strengthen us if things go according to plan,” the PN leader continued.

Adrian Delia told Lovin Malta that he will still be there in a year's time irrespective of the vote margin

So, Delia is seeking to downplay the importance of these elections by comparing them to a survey on the basis of which he will define the party’s strategy, possibly by strengthening his hand in the party, irrespective of the result.

In so doing Delia is also sending a clear message to those PN voters who may be tempted to abstain in next year’s contest in the hope that defeat will trigger the election for a new leader. For the very rumour that Delia will resign if the margin between the two parties continues to increase over and above the 35,000-vote margin (40,000 if PD votes are excluded) in the last general election may well further dampen the PN’s prospects.

This is because Delia is fighting on two fronts. The latest MaltaToday survey shows that while 92% of PL voters in 2017 will vote Labour again in a forthcoming election, only 65% of PN voters will vote for their party. A substantial 16% will not vote. On the other hand less than 1% of PL voters in 2017 have switched to the PN. This means that Delia is not only failing to make any inroads among Labour voters but is also losing support to abstention.

The PN risks running a disjointed campaign in next year's European Parliament election

PN insiders confirm that a category of voters, particularly in localities like Sliema, remain antagonistic towards the new leader and may be tempted to abstain.

Delia does have an advantage in these elections. Anti-corruption voters who fail to see Delia as their leader may still vote for candidates like David Casa who are perceived to be closer to Delia’s predecessor, Simon Busuttil.

Yet the risk for Delia will be a disjointed campaign where the party is perceived by voters as divided and faction-ridden.

One major factor will be Delia’s campaigning skills. If he translates his human touch into votes, Delia may well be here to stay. But any failure to register gains in these elections may prove lethal

Calling the shots

The fact is that while Delia benefits from plurality of candidates making a pitch to different categories of voters he must also be seen as the leader calling the shots.

He needs to keep both the voters of those who still want to continue what Busuttil had started while luring voters who were never impressed by Busuttil’s ‘good governance’ pretentions.

Delia desperately needs the party to unite behind him simply because divided parties are always punished by voters. In this, Delia is right. If they really want the party to start recovering lost ground, the Busuttil faction have to let the new leader call the shots.

That is why Delia was quick to chide his predecessor for tweeting on last week’s ECJ decision on trapping before the party issued its stance. That is why he has unambigiously committed his party to support Muscat in the standoff with Italy over irregular migrants. One may disagree with Delia’s stance on both issues but at least voters know where the PN stands. Some will probably not feel at home anymore in the party while others will start feeling more at home in it. But ultimately, no party can recover lost ground if its leader is not allowed to call the shots.

Adrian Delia's leadership team is even weaker than his predecessor's

How the PN lost its edge

The problem for Delia is that by saying that he won’t resign even if he loses by 100,000 votes, he is sounding irrational. For any party leader, losing by such a margin is untenable.

Just as Muscat may be posturing by hinting that he will resign after a fourth consecutive electoral victory, thus creating an unnecessary leadership vacuum which could damage the party, Delia could be posturing to quell internal revolt fully knowing that he won’t stay on if he is humiliated.

As Delia is keen on saying, a day in politics is a long one and we still have to see Delia as a campaigner. But to make progress Delia needs to instill confidence and hope rather than resignation.

Yet to get there, Delia needs both an inspiring team and an inspiring unifying message. The problem for Delia is that his leadership team is even weaker than that of Busuttil. While Busuttil was flanked by Beppe Fenech Adami and Mario de Marco, Delia is flanked by David Agius and Robert Arrigo, two successful constituency politicians who, however, lack the political depth of their predecessors.

When one considers that Busuttil’s team was itself weaker than that of Gonzi and Fenech Adami, one cannot help feeling that the PN is a party in decline. Delia is not to blame for this. The PN electorate did not renew the party in the last general election by electing a new dynamic front bench.

Delia's PN has picked foreigners in Malta as a battleground

Where’s the beef?

Moreover, Delia still struggles to reconcile the different priorities and values of PN voters, let alone come with a message which can win over new voters from the other side. Lacking a clear battle cry after partly ditching Busuttil’s emphasis on good governance, Delia has opted to return to more conservative values on issues like IVF while resorting to simplistic notions on foreign workers at a time when the economy is doing well.

Sure enough, he is reacting to surveys on popular concerns. But he also has to convince voters that he is not just talking about their concerns but that he can make a better job than Muscat in tackling them.

His declaration on Sunday that foreign workers in Malta do not spend their money here and therefore do not contribute to prosperity, suggests a lack of depth. For it is a fact that foreigners not only boost consumption but also contribute to the national pot through taxes and national insurance. The question is whether Malta is becoming too dependent on their presence which could possibly be resulting in inflationary pressures.

In fact, Delia does raise pertinent questions on the sustainability of Muscat’s economic model but so far he fails to outline a convincing vision of his own which reconciles his own party’s tradition of openness with environmental and social concerns.

In the end mainstream voters, especially those who voted for Gonzi in 2008 and 2013 but for Muscat in 2017, will have one question in their mind: Who comes across as the better manager of the country’s economy?

On the other hand, less mainstream voters who give importance to issues like good governance, social justice and environmental protection will ask in what ways is Delia more principled than Muscat.

Can Delia convince voters he can do a better job than Joseph Muscat?

Delia may be tempted to confront Muscat on his own ground, projecting himself as a strongman who is close to popular aspirations. But in so doing, will he be able to convince voters that he is better in this game than Muscat?

The irony of all this is that while Muscat is hinting that he will bow out after winning another super majority, Delia is insisting on staying on even if humiliated in next year’s contest. And while Labour voters will seek to convince Muscat to stay on by voting for him, some PN voters may well be tempted to show Delia the way out by abstaining.

The problem is that by doing so they may end up with an even stronger Muscat and a lame duck at the helm of their party till the next general election.