Expect more severe and longer heatwaves in summer, EU agency warns

Europe will face more severe, longer and more frequent heatwaves this summer, as well as droughts, floods, and wildires, posing a significant risk to nature, human health and the economy.

The warning comes from the the European Environment Agency (EEA), in its new online web product, which takes a deep dive into the main summer weather extremes that have increasingly impacted the European population.

“Under our changing climate, the weather in Europe is getting more extreme... the overall outlook is pessimistic as we have already seen this past winter and spring,” the EEA said.

The agency said that heatwaves that are dangerous to human health – like the heatwaves of the summer of 2022 – are getting more frequent, longer and more intense and will continue to do so under all climate scenarios.

In southern Europe especially, there may be more than 60 summer days during which conditions are dangerous to human health – meaning higher number of additional deaths and hospital admissions, especially among the elderly and the sick, unless adaptation measures are taken. “Heatwaves are the deadliest extreme weather events in Europe and the increasing vulnerability of the European population due to ageing and urbanisation requires urgent implementation of measures to prevent loss of life,” the EEA said.

Since 2018, more than half of Europe has been affected by extreme drought conditions in both winter and summer. The 2022 droughts substantially reduced yields of crops like maize, corn, soybeans or olive oil.

“Another dry winter does not bode well for this summer and the outlook is pessimistic. The exceptionally dry and warm winter meant low snow cover and resulted in little soil moisture, low river flows and reduced water storage in reservoirs in most of southern and western Europe,” the EEA said.

Long-term climate projections indicate that southern and central Europe will become even drier and hotter throughout the 21st century with devastating consequences for the agriculture sector. Total economic losses across all economic sectors linked to droughts are expected to rise by the end of this century from the current €9 billion per year to €25 billion per year at 1.5 degree Celcius (°C) of global warming, €31 billion per year at 2°C of warming and €5 billion a 3°C warming based on scientific scenarios.

Some disease-carrying species are widespread in Europe but the climate suitability for the tiger mosquito is projected to increase in large parts of Europe, especially in western Europe which could become a hot spot for the mosquito by the end of the century.The EEA also warned that malaria could also re-emerge in Europe due to the widespread presence of the Anopheles mosquito species which can carry the disease.

Heavy precipitation events are also projected to increase over most of Europe, leading to increased incidence of flooding, especially in north-western and central Europe. Between 1980 and 2021, damages due to flooding amounted to nearly €258 billion and are on average rising every year by over 2%.