Two leaders, two problems

MaltaToday's survey reconfirms what we have all been saying. I am referring to the findings that underpin the declining popularity of PN leader Bernard Grech in the Nationalist Party. 

Since being installed as leader of the PN, Grech, a lawyer by profession, made few electoral inroads. In the haste to remove Adrian Delia, the PN and some insiders opted to choose another fresh face from outside the party and someone who they believed could reconfirm the party as a fighting political force. 

Somehow, they got it all wrong. Grech was never a party man and not made for the job.  Undoubtedly, he was someone who was very visible as a talk show guest but beyond that he was not a political animal.   

In politics you need a little bit of the wow factor; he did not have it. He was neither associated with some political ideology nor followed some unique political stand.  Grech was just an affable character who could keep an interesting conversation going for 10 long minutes.  But there was nothing profound about him. 

The murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia pushed those in the PN and the traditional militants to unseat Delia (who had been a harsh critic of the murdered journalist).   

When the dust settled, it turned out that Grech did not have the virtues or magnetism that led PN militants to flock to him. Indeed, Delia with all his defects still attracted people (albeit the wrong ones) to his side. Grech had and has limited charisma. He is also not Machiavellian, shrewd or strategic. He is basically a nice guy. But as we know, nice guys do not make the grade in politics. 

And on political ideology, he is all over the place. Most of the time he is reactive, convoluted or without a counter-proposal.  Many times there is nothing new to offer, other than the Delia invective about how Malta’s bulging population threatens the country. Short of throwing people off the cliffs, the PN and Grech offer no long-term solutions. 

There is little doubt, that Malta is in dire need of an opposition party and the Labour Party must have an opposition to keep it on its toes. We also have to appreciate that a democracy requires alternating parties in government. 

As things stand today, all the agenda-setting of the PN does not take place at the Stamperija but what inconsequential bloggers write or what NGOs declare or what the media states. In politics strong opposition parties set the tone.   

The PN is in a straitjacket. Everyone agrees that we need a strong opposition, but not everyone believes that the opposition needs to reinvigorate itself, even on the ideological level.   

In Sunday's MaltaToday survey, one interesting observation is that high-income voters prefer Robert Abela to Bernard Grech. The PN’s traditional support from the business classes is near to extinction. Indeed, there is hardly one segment which is associated with the PN.  

Many people in the PN argue that they cannot have another bloodbath in the party, but the question is not about how to change a political leader, but who the next leader could be. 

The PN needs to have a very definitive leadership change, but one that brings forward a candidate who is willing to grow with the party and withstand the battles and skirmishes of politics. The PN cannot afford to make another mistake this time. Learning from past mistakes should be enough to ensure that the next person will be the right choice. 

On the other side of the political spectrum, Robert Abela should not be afraid to accept that the next electoral result will be more reflective of a changing society. Today he commands a 15,000-vote advantage over the PN.  By June, if nothing changes and the electoral machine changes into top gear, the PL could be looking at an advantage of 25,000 votes if it convinced its reluctant voters to get out and vote.   

Party politics in Malta needs some calibration. 

And Robert Abela would do well, to achieve this without the short-term advantage of Joseph Muscat standing as an MEP candidate. It appears Muscat may be also tempted to stand in the election to achieve a better result at the polls than Roberta Metsola. 

There comes a time when the long-term goal requires that one sacrifices short-term pyrrhic victories. Muscat will surely galvanise PL voters in the south, but in the long term, he will taint the Abela administration. 

It is difficult to come to terms with all this. One thing is certain though, it calls for better political leadership all around.