The post-Franco scenario

The Franco Debono saga has turned what would have been a cold and boring winter into quite an interesting period for observers of the Maltese political scene. His antics gave everybody, albeit probably unintentionally, some food for thought.

Undoubtedly, the performance of Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi came under closer scrutiny. From the macro-economic aspect, his performance during the last few years can be termed as quite creditable. Malta managed to avoid the worse of a five-year international financial recession, the like of which the world had not seen since the Wall Street Crash.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister had lesser fortunes on the home run, fending off frequent stabs in the back, mostly provoked by his way of dealing with his own backbenchers. He proved to be resilient, an expert in manoeuvring and a political survivor.

Nevertheless, his performance was marred by his lack of empathy with many Nationalist supporters who crossed his path and his ruthless way of dealing with opponents in his own party, starting with John Dalli and continuing with other lesser mortals.

Moreover, the recent revelation that, notwithstanding the impressive visible progress on site, the new Parliament building and Opera House rehabilitation project is not yet being financed in the way it was originally intended and declared has made Gonzi's much vaunted 'safe pair of hands' look like a sleight of hand.

Many observers argue that Gonzi's internal tribulations started with his decisions to reduce the size of his cabinet and to give a raise to ministers. In principle both decisions were correct as ministers were given a more realistic remuneration while avoiding a heavier burden on the taxpayer. What was wrong was the way he went about it. The infamous text messages sent to those who were not reappointed ministers after the election say it all. The way the increase to ministers was kept under shrouds with the public learning about it two years too late undermined Gonzi's decision. We all know the rest of this sad story. What was ostensibly a good and wise decision ended up being Gonzi's biggest debacle since he won the 2008 election with a slim relative majority.

Apparently, he even bungled the Cabinet reshuffle in the beginning of this year, somehow managing to ruffle the feathers of one of his most loyal Ministers, Dolores Cristina, who admittedly publicly that she cried when she realised how her ministry was cut down in size.

His worse strategic mistake may have been to adopt a strict 'fundamentalist' approach, surrounding himself too much with people who were chosen on the basis of their loyalty rather than on the basis of their capabilities. Many of these have a staunch religious background and pushed him to take the practical application of the PN ideology too much to the right. This partly reversed the brilliant repositioning to the left of the PN under Eddie Fenech Adami who moved the party to the centre left and pulled the carpet from under the feet of Labour for no less than a quarter of a century.

Gonzi's stand on the divorce issue, admirable as some might consider it to be, says it all.

He has now reacted to Franco Debono's declared position of refusing to support him in Parliament by proposing a mock PN leadership election in which he will be competing with himself. Many have seen through this gimmick that has served to further erode the trust and respect that is due to him as a Prime Minister and a party leader.

It will be a very grave mistake if after he is confirmed as leader - as he is expected to be - he were to adopt an 'as we were' attitude without trying to shore up the parts of the PN that he has repeatedly shunned. It will be a grave mistake if the lessons from the Franco Debono episode are not learnt. Franco's antics have also exposed some disturbing trends within Muscat's 'new Labour', apart from uniting solidly avid PN supporters behind Lawrence Gonzi, via a surge of sympathy as a reaction.

Initially, Joseph Muscat did not seem to be very keen to push for a Parliamentary vote of no confidence in the Gonzi administration - a very wise stance. He appeared very statesmanlike and was admired by many for this attitude. But he then apparently succumbed to the pressure of the old guard with Anglu Farrugia actually proposing the motion in his name. Farrugia might be more bark than bite but the perception about him among PN voters is not a positive one and he certainly does not help luring voters to switch from PN to Labour.

Many believe that the 'old guard' prefer an early election to decrease the chance of Muscat's 'star candidates' replacing them in Parliament. Hence their enthusiasm to see the vote of non-confidence being approved!

To make it worse, Muscat has now shocked old Labour by saying that the 1981 Labour government was 'morally wrong' to hold on to power for a full five years against the will of the majority. Old Labour undoubtedly resent this public admission, even if it is a full 30 years since 1981. Astounding as this statement may seem, Labour still has to come clean with its own supporters and the rest of the electorate on how Dom Mintoff was forced to conduct a five-year internal struggle against the will of an overwhelming majority of Labour MPs in order to safeguard the basic democratic principle of majority rule. Are these pleasures yet to come?

Muscat's analogy, comparing the 1981 political scenario with the current situation, was foolish and a clear sign of his political immaturity: it makes a poor comparison with Gonzi's astute manoeuvring.

It is such thoughts and comparisons that put reluctant Nationalists in quite a predicament as the country gets closer to the day when the country has to choose a new government for the next five years. Labour's performance during the 'Franco crisis' has made it difficult for many of them to go the whole hog and vote Labour. I have no doubt that there will be more abstentions on the card, come the day of the crucial vote.

Many acknowledge that the PN is showing clear signs of wear and tear after 25 years in power and that a change is due. This happens to all administrations and in a democracy where political change is institutionalised, voting for the other side is the natural option.

The real question that Nationalist Party supporters who are disappointed with Gonzi will have to face will be: What is best for Malta? Going for more of the same from the PN, or a calculated risk - and a welcome change - with Joseph Muscat? For many disgruntled and frustrated Nationalist voters who sense Gonzi's chinks in his armour, it will not be an easy decision. A lot depends on Muscat's actions in the next few months, especially on whether he manages not to come across as being shackled by old Labour.

Will he ever be able to produce the earthquake that he promised, and not yet delivered, when he was elected Labour leader and get rid of 'old Labour' once and for all? Or do we have to wait until he is elected Prime Minister and hope for this to happen afterwards?