Roberta Metsola, Alex Agius Saliba storm ahead as Arnold Cassola makes top six

Roberta Metsola remains in pole position with 41.3% of voters who have made up their mind saying they will give her their first preference.

Two days before Malta heads to the polls to elect six MEPs, Labour’s front runner Alex Agius Saliba secures 29.9% of those who have decided who to give their number 1 vote.

The other four front runners in the survey are PL candidate Daniel Attard (4.2%), PN candidate Peter Agius (3.9%), independent candidate Arnold Cassola (3.9%), and Labour candidate Steve Ellul (3.6%).

This ranking is an indication of strength at first count and could change in the actual election when second and subsequent preferences will determine which candidates are ultimately elected.

Moreover, candidates like David Casa, who is poised to win the greater share of Metsola’s second preferences, could gain a foothold as the counting progresses.

A significant number of voters (52.4%) replied that they are still undecided on which candidate to vote for.  Significantly, the survey also shows that current Labour voters are more undecided than PN voters. While 44.3% of PN voters are undecided, the percentage increases to 59.3% among PL voters. 

This means that Agius Saliba has more room to grow in the next days, possibly edging closer to Metsola on polling day as more Labour voters make up their mind.

Metsola and Agius Saliba are also the only two candidates mentioned in the survey whose score is substantially greater than the survey’s margin of error. This means that the results of other candidates are only indicative.

The survey can only give an indication on the chances other candidates have of getting elected and much will depend on the inheritance from the two leading candidates as well as from candidates who are eliminated in the long and complicated process of vote transfers.

MaltaToday also asked respondents voting for Metsola and Agius Saliba to state for which candidate they intend giving their second preference.

Casa inheriting most votes from Metsola

An analysis of the result shows that David Casa, who was only mentioned by 2.1% of respondents as their first choice, is poised to inherit 43% of Metsola’s vote while Peter Agius who was mentioned by 3.9%% of respondents as their first choice, is poised to inherit 11.9% of Metsola’s vote. Former PN deputy leader David Agius is also poised to inherit 7.2% of Metsola’s vote.

This makes David Casa and Peter Agius clear favourites to accompany Metsola in Brussels if the party wins three seats. Casa has an advantage over Agius if the party only elects two seats.

The survey suggests that the elections will also see a degree of cross party voting among Metsola voters, 4.9% of which will give their second preference to Arnold Cassola. 

Daniel Attard inheriting most votes from Agius Saliba

The survey also suggests that Daniel Attard is emerging as the second strongest Labour candidate with 4.2% of first preferences and a substantial 26.5% of second preferences inherited from Agius Saliba.

But the survey indicates that there will be a very tight race for Labour’s third and potential fourth seat. While Steve Ellul (3.6%) and Thomas Bajada (3.2%) have an advantage over Clint Azzopardi Flores (1.4%) in the first preference vote, the latter could inherit a slightly higher share of second preferences from Agius Saliba (14.7%) compared to 13.3% for Thomas Bajada and 12.6% for Steve Ellul.

This suggests that Labour’s third and potential fourth seat are up for grabs.

Cassola leads third party vote

With nearly 4% of decided voters Arnold Cassola is the clear front runner among independent and small party candidates followed by far rightist Norman Lowell (1.9%), former Gzira mayor Conrad Borg Manche (1.3%) and ADPD leader Sandra Gauci (0.6%).

But a substantial 51.9% of third party and independent voters are still undecided on which candidate they will be voting for on election day. This means that third party and independent candidates, could get a significantly higher number of votes than that registered in the survey.