[ANALYSIS] The midterm paradox: How Labour wins big despite losing to abstention

At face value, the MaltaToday European election survey suggests the PN has narrowed the gap with Labour since the 2019 EP election.

Five years ago, the gap between the two major parties at the European election stood at 42,656. The MaltaToday survey puts the gap at ‘just’ 15,000 now, at the start of this year’s election.

But the survey shows that the Opposition is not gaining ground.

In fact, the survey indicates that the PN’s tally is set to decrease by 7,650 votes from 2019 levels. This would mean that the party is set to get less votes than in any other MEP elections held since 2004.

The main reason why the gap has narrowed is that Labour is shedding even more votes than the PN; a drop of 34,885 votes in Labour’s vote tally. But few of these ‘deserters’ are going in the PN’s direction, and most are ‘parked’ in no man’s land.

The most drastic change from 2019 is a decline in the number of valid votes cast which is set to drop by 38,329. Nearly 4 in 10 (37.5%) are saying that they will not vote for any party in next June’s MEP election compared to 31% who either did not vote or invalidated their vote in 2019.

No such thing as a non-voter party

Superficially some pundits are celebrating the emergence of an abstentionist party claiming that this is now an electoral block in its own right.

But everyone knows that non-voters, especially in MEP elections are far from a homogenous group making the same point. They include a motley crew composed of voters who have little in common. These probably include apolitical and complacent people, Eurosceptics not keen on voting for MEPs, voters with an axe to grind with their party, voters who don’t feel represented by any party and people who want to send a variety of messages, some of which end up being colourfully depicted on invalid votes.

The only inference from the survey is that non-voters tend to be younger and more educated than the average voter. And while in past electoral appointments abstention penalised the PN particularly in the North Harbour region, this time round it is penalising Labour particularly in the south east.

The good news for Labour is that it is not losing a substantial percentage of votes to the PN.  While abstention does benefit the Opposition by default, these voters remain parked in the middle and can be recovered.

For while the survey puts Labour at 48%, the prospect of an absolute majority remains a realistic proposition simply because it has more room to grow in the next weeks than the PN.

Labour’s path to an absolute majority

Labour’s path to an absolute majority consists in convincing some of the voters who trust Robert Abela more than Bernard Grech but who are presently intent on abstaining to vote for it.

When non-voters are included in the survey result, one finds that Abela is significantly more popular than his own party. While only 30% of the entire electorate will be voting for the PL, Abela is trusted by 41%. This means that Abela is 11 points more popular than his own party. On the other hand, support for the PN (26%) is nine points higher than Grech’s trust rating (17%). This suggests that while a substantial number of voters are choosing the PN despite their lack of trust in Grech, a substantial number of voters trust Abela but are not intent on voting for anyone.

It is also plausible that more people make up their minds to vote as the campaign kicks in. In a scenario where turnout increases back to 2019 levels (72.7%) and Labour retains a seven-point advantage, the gap could very well increase from the 15,000 votes foreseen in the survey to nearly 18,000 votes.

As things stand now, 34% of Labour voters in the 2022 elections are intent on not voting compared to 23% of PN voters. This means Labour has a bigger pool from which to fish for potential voters in the next months.

One would expect Labour to target these voters directly in the next weeks.

Downward spiral for PN?

Moreover, bad survey results can have a demoralising impact on the Opposition. The PN already starts the race with an unpopular lame duck as leader who is distrusted by a majority of its 2022 voters. Moreover, the main reason why the party has managed to reduce the gap with Labour is that after shedding so many voters in recent elections, it is now losing fewer votes to abstention than Labour.

Yet the party still loses a considerable 23% of its voters to abstention, another 5% to third parties, and 2% to Labour.

One major risk facing the PN is that as demoralisation sets in, more of its voters would be tempted to either stay home or blow a raspberry by voting for a third party. This also militates in favour of an even stronger Labour majority.

Labour is defying the odds

Across the world, midterm elections are the perfect occasion for electorates to punish governments without having to think whether the Opposition is really a better option.

Since the government of the country is not at stake, voters do not even have to worry whether Bernard Grech would make a better prime minister than Robert Abela.

With inflation deflating Labour’s best of times narrative this should clearly be the PN’s moment to shine. Labour has also taken one hit after another on the corruption front, and only the most die-hard of supporters would fail to recognise that something is rotten at the Mile End.

The fact that Labour is still winning comfortably despite all these negative factors militating against it, suggests that there is a degree of satisfaction among the electorate with the way it is governing the country.

MaltaToday’s surveys over the past months suggest that after reaching its nadir following a summer of discontent, Labour has been in recovery mode since November. This was particularly evident after a budget focused on containing the impact of inflation on low-income families.

In fact, its lead over the PN in surveys asking respondents on how they will vote in a hypothetical general election had already increased from 5,000 votes in November to 9,000 votes in December.

In an indication that this upward trajectory has continued, the latest MT survey shows Labour leading the MEP race by 15,000 votes despite a lower turnout among Labour voters.

Moreover, MaltaToday’s Government Performance Barometer shows the government’s rating increasing from 2.6 out of 5 in December to 2.8 now.

This suggests that contrary to what is the case in most EU member states, the incumbent is still seen in a positive light despite inflationary pressures.

Much depends on whether the government can hold on to the momentum it gained after the budget and whether it can carry on this mild ‘feel good factor’ in the next months.

But one major factor behind Labour’s resilience is that 11 years after being ousted from power, the Nationalist Party still provokes an allergic reaction among vast swathes of the electorate including many who are disgusted by Labour’s antics.

Some are turned off by the PN’s conservatism, others by its lack of depth and economic vision while some others are turned off by its half baked overtures to liberal voters.

The only saving grace for the PN in these elections is Roberta Metsola, whose international profile may attract younger more forward-looking non-partisan voters who may choose her despite their allergy to the sclerotic PN.

But one also expects Labour to mobilise its war machine in a bid to depict Metsola as part of the PN’s ‘old guard’ while hitting at her pro Israeli stance on the Middle East war to further alienate her from younger progressives.

The power of the core vote

But the ultimate paradox in next June’s election may well be that of a large segment of middle-of-the-road voters staying at home. It will be the party that can best mobilise its core voters which could reap most gains.

The MaltaToday survey shows that abstention is highest among younger and tertiary and post-secondary voters who earn a monthly income of between €1,000 and €3,000. If these stay at home, the outcome of the election will depend on which of the two major parties is best capable of mobilising older, less educated, and probably more partisan supporters to go out and vote.

In this sense, Labour’s strategy of targeting disgruntlement in its heartlands and even among Muscat loyalists, may pay off in the short term.

The calculation made by Labour strategists may well be that it is much easier for the party to win back supporters of politicians side-lined for pigging out than voters disgusted by a system which perpetuates the feeding frenzy.

The risk is that an election focused on which party is best in mobilising its core voters could easily degenerate into a race to the bottom, further alienating middle of the road and principled voters.

And while these may be dispensable in midterm elections, their support will be crucial for winning the next general election. In this sense, the MEP election could end up as a pyrrhic victory for both parties. For if the PN manages to slightly reduce the gap and win three seats, it will probably end up sitting on its laurels and avoid any drastic steps like changing its leader before it is too late.

But if Labour wins big thanks to its greater success in mobilising its core voters, it could well face a reckoning with middle of the road voters in general elections.

In this sense, Labour could end up winning big in the mid-terms mostly by default, despite having lost the trust of thousands of its more politically nuanced voters, who prefer to abstain.