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MaltaToday polls were spot-on: election confirms 12-point gap

Consistently, MaltaToday polls foretold the 12-point gap that Labour held all throughout the election campaign.

james
James Debono
10 March 2013, 12:00am
Photo: James Galea/Mediatoday
Photo: James Galea/Mediatoday


The 12-point advantage Labour enjoys in its national vote over the PN has tallied with the 11.7 point difference predicted in the latest MaltaToday survey.

It is the largest gap ever between the big parties since the 1955 election.

Labour had enjoyed a gap of more than 10 points in all eight MaltaToday surveys conducted during the electoral campaign, as well as in most surveys conducted in the previous year.

The election result confirms that Labour has managed to attract a significant amount of Nationalist voters.

MaltaToday surveys showed the PN losing 9.5% of its 2008 voters to the PL. The scale of Labour's victory suggests that the PL has managed to retain this considerable swing right up to polling day.

MaltaToday was the only media outlet to publish surveys during the election campaign, with the last survey published by the Sunday Times in January showing a 6-point advantage for the PN.

Both surveys published on 12 January agreed on the PN's percentage (27%). But while the Times-Misco survey fixed Labour's support at 33%, MaltaToday's survey put the same percentage at 38% - a difference of 5 points. The difference was attributable to the lower participation of Labour voters in the Sunday Times survey.

MaltaToday conducted a total of eight surveys during the campaign. In these surveys the PL enjoyed a gap of between 10 and 14 points.

Support for AD ranged between 1.5% and 2.5%, which roughly tallies with the 1.8% garnered in the general election.

This also shows that undecided voters and non-respondents followed the same trends as declared voters.

MaltaToday had previously correctly predicted the results of the 2008 general election, the MEP election in 2009 and the divorce referendum. A survey conducted in Gozo in August 2012 showed Labour leading by 3.5 percentage points.
james
James Debono is MaltaToday's chief reporter on environment, planning and land use issues, ...
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MaltaToday was a major protagonist in these elections providing not only an independent and unbiased presentation of the news as they emerged but carried out a fantastic investigative journalistic feat unparalleled in Malta's history of Journalism. There is no doubt that this election was won by the People of Malta, by the PL and by MaltaToday. Congratulations to Saviour Balzan and all his staff.
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Congratulations are definitely in order for PL's landslide victory but must also thank MaltaToday for its thorough work and for giving an approximate poll survey which did not waver since the beginning of the campaign.
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Well done Malta Today! Truly spot on. Nobody would have imagined it would be true.
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It is proving that Malta-Today is the most independent news agency from all those so called independent news. And I must add that it clearly seems to have the best investigative journalism around. well done and keep it up.
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alfred aquilina
Easy come, easy go. People are not stupid anymore.
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Karl Cucciardi
Saviour you're king. Your projections were correct. Why did Xarabank keep their poll results hidden from their audience this time?
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David Delmar
Hats off to Malta Today for such precise predictions. congratulations to Joseph Muscat and his new movement of moderates and progressives. Let us now build a new generation where we can all work together for the benefit of our country and our people, so help us God.
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Luke Mizzi
First of all WELL DONE J. MUSCAT & PARTIT LABURISTA well done to MALTA-TODAY, you guys were spot on with your polls, , gave an answer to those who doubted your surveys
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Luke Mizzi
First of all WELL DONE J. MUSCAT & PARTIT LABURISTA well done to MALTA-TODAY, you guys were spot on with your polls, , gave an answer to those who doubted your surveys
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Luke Mizzi
First of all WELL DONE J. MUSCAT & PARTIT LABURISTA well done to MALTA-TODAY, you guys were spot on with your polls, , gave an answer to those who doubted your surveys
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Better Future
Prosit lit-team kollhu tal-Malta Today u specjalment lill James Debono ghax kien verament 'spot-on' dan jikkonfermawh hafna protagonisti tal-PN li kienu jikkonfermaw li s-surveys kollha tal-Malta Today kienu veritiera sa +/- 1%...prosit
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Daniel Cassar Darien
Well done Labour Movement, Joseph Muscat for this victory for all Malta. But also congratulations to Malta Today for its opinion polls. Spot on all the way. Thanks for your service