French president Macron faces prospect of cohabitation with Left

French President Emmanuel Macron could lose his majority in the French Assembly after a left-green coalition led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon finished neck and neck with Macron’s Ensemble (Together).

During Sunday’s first round of elections, turnout was at a historically low 47.5%. Macron must win 289 seats out of 577 to keep his majority.

Although Ensemble won 25.71% of the vote, it was marginally ahead of the left’s 25.61%. TF1 pollster Ifop gave Ensemble 275 to 305 seats, with the green-left alliance on 175-205. Ipsos for France Télévisions said Macron’s alliance was heading for a lower 255-295 seats and the left 150-190.

Unless a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote based on a quarter of the electorate, the race culminates in a run-off next Sunday, involving the top two candidates and anyone else who wins 12.5% of the vote.

On Sunday Mélenchon announced his alliance was in the lead: “The truth at the end of the first round is that the presidential party is beaten and defeated.”

He called on voters to turn out in force next Sunday “to reject definitively the disastrous policies of Macron’s majority”.

Mélenchon has built an alliance called Nupes, made up of his own far-left party France Unbowed (France Insoumise) the Socialists, Communists and greens – with the slogan ‘Mélenchon prime minister’.

Macron won a second presidential term in April. But he needs a majority of MPs in the Assembly to push through his reforms, such as raising pensionable age from 62 to 65. Mélenchon vows to lower it to 60. Nupes also vows to freeze prices on 100 essentials and create a million jobs.

France’s current prime minister is Elisbeth Borne, and her 14 other ministers must win their seats to stay in government.

Since each constituency is an individual local race, the election is played out over two weeks.

Far-right Marine Le Pen, who was runner-up in the presidential elections, 18.74% of the vote with a projected 15-30 seats, higher than her current number of eight. Another far-right leader, Éric Zemmour, was knocked out of the election in the first round.

The mainstream right, which fared badly in the April vote, won only 10.44% of the vote, but the Republicans could win 45 to 65 seats.