Let’s please look beyond the headlines when discussing tourism

The debate on tourism in Malta has become trapped in headlines. We focus on numbers of arrivals. We celebrate record-breaking years or lament “quality erosion” based on fragments of data. But tourism is not a static industry and it cannot be judged by a single metric. It is a living ecosystem that responds to shocks, incentives, prices, connectivity, demographics, and infrastructure. If we are serious about steering it toward quality, we must first learn to read it properly. 

The starting point must be honesty about the journey Malta’s tourism sector has been on since 2019. The pandemic did not merely interrupt growth. It forced a full reset. Borders closed. Connectivity collapsed. Direct routes fell from well over 100 to around 70. Demand evaporated. What followed from 2022 onward was not business as usual, but a rebuilding phase. 

Analysis by the Central Bank of Malta shows that inbound tourism by air only started to consistently exceed 2019 levels from 2023 onwards. Since then, growth has been particularly strong, with inbound tourism growth by air averaging 38% in Malta since 2024 compared to 26% in Greece, another tourism-dependent country often used as a benchmark. That stronger rebound in Malta has been explicitly linked to the persistence of elevated air fare inflation, suggesting very robust demand pressures. 

Reconstituting after collapse 

This matters because it reframes the narrative. What we have been living through is not a mature market expanding smoothly, but a system reconstituting itself after collapse. Any serious analysis must therefore use time series and context, not snapshots. The Central Bank’s Business Dialogue Volume 4 of 2024 carries a very interesting analysis of the industry and hotel sector. Data comparing 2019 with 2023 already shows that inbound tourists increased from 2.75 million to 2.98 million, an 8.1% increase. Nights rose by 4.7%. Total expenditure rose by 20.3%. Expenditure per capita rose from €807 to €898, an increase of 11.3%. Expenditure per night rose from €115 to €132, a 14.9% increase. These are not figures of a sector in collapse. They are the figures of a sector rebuilding volume while also lifting nominal value. 

The 2024 data strengthens this picture. Between January and August 2024, inbound tourists grew by 21.1% compared to the same period in 2023. Total expenditure grew by 23.3%. Expenditure per capita rose again from €888 to €904, while expenditure per night rose from €130 to €141.  This is the trajectory of recovery combined with price growth, not stagnation. 

Quarterly time series data reinforces the trend. In the second quarter of 2025, tourist expenditure reached €1,055.7 million, up from €883.1 million in Q2 2024, a 19.5% increase. Expenditure per capita rose from €876 to €949 over the same period. Over multiple quarters, arrivals, expenditure, and spend per visitor are all moving upward. This is the underlying reality over time, even if the pace fluctuates. 

There is also a narrative of stagnating spend. This often rests on inflation-adjusted arguments, suggesting that real spend per tourist has barely moved since 2019. That is an important lens, but it is only one layer of the ecosystem. If air fares have been experiencing inflation rates of over 40% year-on-year in parts of 2025, significantly above the euro area, then a larger share of a tourist’s budget is being absorbed before they even land. The Central Bank’s Outlook for the Maltese Economy Q3:2025 shows that Malta recorded air passenger transport inflation of 46% in April 2025 compared to 14% in the euro area. Even in May and June, inflation remained exceptionally high at 42% and 25%. This is not a trivial distortion. It mechanically suppresses on-island discretionary spend even when overall trip costs rise. A tourist may be spending more overall but allocating a rising share to airlines rather than hotels, restaurants, or experiences. 

This is why the industry must be analysed as an interconnected system rather than a single line on a chart. Connectivity expanded rapidly again after COVID. Direct routes rose from 70 in 2020 to 100 by 2023 and further in 2024, supported by rising seat capacity. The same Central Bank material notes that average seat capacity exceeded 2019 levels by 17% in 2024 and by 35% in 2025. Passenger movements were already 24% above 2019 levels in 2024 and 42% above in 2025.  That volume growth inevitably reshapes the visitor mix. It changes who arrives, how they travel, how long they stay, and what they spend on. 

Market rebalancing 

The data confirms this compositional shift. The Business Dialogue report explicitly notes that Malta has seen growth in the youth segment, drawn by the island’s reputation as an entertainment destination, and that this group tends to have lower expenditure levels. It also records feedback from five-star hotels reporting a decline in average spending power, with tourists downgrading from five-star to four-star accommodation. That is not evidence of collapse. It is evidence of market rebalancing. More volume at the mid-market, pressure at the top end, and intense competition as capacity expands. 

Capacity growth itself is another layer often ignored in public debate. The number of accommodation establishments increased from 215 in January 2020 to 317 by mid-2024, a 47.4% increase. When supply expands that rapidly, price dynamics, occupancy patterns, and profitability inevitably shift. In such a context, flat or modest growth in spend per tourist does not necessarily indicate failure. It may simply reflect the mathematics of a market absorbing new capacity. 

Seasonality adds another dimension. Air transport price indices show pronounced seasonal peaks, with prices rising sharply in summer months. Hotels report strong performance in peak season but persistent weakness in winter months. Five-star operators explicitly argue for a stronger strategy to promote Malta as a winter destination. A quality strategy, therefore, is not only about who comes, but when they come. Extending the season, attracting business travel, conferences, culture-driven tourism, and longer-stay segments would change the structure of demand far more than obsessing over annual arrival totals. 

Transition and quality 

If we peel back the layers, a more nuanced picture emerges. The time series shows recovery and growth. The inflation data shows that external cost pressures, especially in aviation, are distorting traditional measures of value. The capacity data shows a market that has expanded rapidly and is still adjusting. The compositional data shows a shift in demographics and product mix. These are the dynamics of transition. 

This is where the conversation about ‘quality’ must mature. Quality is not achieved by simply reducing numbers or raising prices. It is achieved by shaping the ecosystem. It is about connectivity that favours strategic markets rather than pure volume. It is about product diversification so that Malta competes on culture, learning, wellness, gastronomy, and business, not only on entertainment. It is about investing in public spaces, urban quality, and infrastructure so that higher-value visitors see Malta as worth returning to. It is about building winter demand so that hotels, workers, and operators are not locked into a brutal seasonal cycle. 

The data already points to the opportunity. Business travel has risen. Holiday travel dominates growth, but business visitors are also increasing. Expenditure per capita is rising in nominal terms. Occupancy rates across three-, four-, and five-star categories have all improved year-on-year in Q2 2025. The system is not deteriorating. It is evolving. The question is whether policy and strategy will evolve with it. 

Guiding the transition 

A serious debate on Malta’s tourism strategy must therefore move beyond headlines and moral panics. It must be grounded in time series analysis, ecosystem thinking, and structural understanding. The industry is not frozen in a “low quality” state. It is in motion. It has rebuilt after collapse. It has expanded rapidly. It is now at a crossroads where choices on connectivity, product, seasonality, and infrastructure will determine whether the next phase is merely more volume or a genuine shift toward sustainable quality. 

We do ourselves a disservice when we reduce this complexity to simplistic claims based solely on headline figures. The data tells a more interesting story. It tells the story of a sector that survived a systemic shock, reconnected itself to the world, absorbed new capacity, attracted new segments, and is now struggling with the growing pains of success. That is transition. The real challenge is whether we have the intellectual honesty and strategic maturity to guide that transition wisely.