MaltaToday Survey | Robert Abela’s trust rebounds as Grech scores best performance

Prime Minister Robert Abela’s trust rating has bounced up seven points since March to climb to 47.2%, while PN leader Bernard Grech scored his highest trust rating at 35.8%, an increase of one point.

But the trust gap between the leaders has more than doubled to 11 points as a result of Abela’s substantial recovery, after hitting an all-time low on the back of a surge in COVID-19 cases that prompted government to introduce restrictive measures.

The survey was carried out between Monday 5 April and Friday 9 April. 

The Prime Minister hit an all-time low last month on the back of a surge in COVID-19 cases that prompted government to introduce restrictive measures. 

It appears that Abela’s approach to the pandemic and his measured words have left their mark on the electorate. 

Abela’s rating suggests that the arrest and prosecution of his predecessor’s chief of staff, Keith Schembri, on money laundering charges may have left a positive impact. 

The April survey reverses the constant decline in trust that the Prime Minister has registered since November last year. 

However, the numbers confirm that Abela’s trust rating remains volatile with significant swings either way, depending on the prevailing circumstances. 

This contrasts with the results for the Nationalist Party leader, whose trust rating has remained relatively constant since the beginning of the year. 

Younger voters shun Grech 

Although Grech’s trust rating now is his highest since becoming PN leader last September, he still trails Abela significantly. 

A breakdown of the results by age shows that Grech suffers among younger voters. 

In the 16-35 age group, Grech has a trust rating of 18.3%, against Abela’s 45.5%. 

However, among those aged between 36 and 50, Grech edges out the Prime Minister with a trust score of 41.8% against Abela’s 40.5%. 

The Prime Minister has strengthened his standing among pensioners, scoring a trust rating of 52.1%, against Grech’s 42.9%. 

Abela wins all regions bar North 

Abela trumps Grech among men and women but the Labour Party leader enjoys a stronger standing among male voters. 

On a geographical basis, Abela beats Grech in all regions except the Northern. 

In the Northern region, which is composed of Għargħur, Mellieħa, Mġarr, Mosta, Naxxar and St Paul’s Bay, Grech enjoys a trust rating of 55.2% against Abela’s 31%. 

The Opposition leader’s worst showing is in the South-Eastern region where he only manages a trust rating of 24.3%. 

Abela’s best performance is in the Southern Harbour with a trust rating of 58.8%, followed by Gozo where he scores 55.9%. In the South-Eastern region Abela also scores an absolute majority with 54.1%. 

Analysing the results by party allegiance, shows that Abela enjoys the trust of 85.4% of people who voted for the PL in the 2017 general election. He also earns the trust of 7.3% of voters who voted for the PN. 

Grech enjoys the trust of 78.3% of people who voted for his party in the last general election and 4.9% of those who voted for the PL. 

Methodology 

The survey was carried out between Monday 5 April 2021 and Friday 9 April 2021. 647 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 4.9% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error.