Labour ahead by 46,000 votes, PN gains three points

Support for the Labour Party remains unchanged at 43.3% but the Nationalist Party climbs by almost three points to 29.8%, in MaltaToday’s November survey. 

ADPD registers 0.8%, while 11.6% will not vote. There are 13.5% of voters who are unsure who to vote for.  

The gap between the major parties is now at 13.5 points, which translates into a difference of more than 46,000 votes in Labour’s favour. 

The vote difference is obtained by using declared voting intention as a percentage of eligible voters. This also assumes that those who voted in the 2017 election but are today unsure, will vote again for the same party. New unsure voters are not assigned. 

This method differs from the previous methods used to estimate the voter gap and will continue being used. 

If, the PN manages to capture all new voters who are unsure, the gap will drop to just over 34,000 in favour of the PL, which is similar to the 2017 general election result. 

The PL leads across all age groups and in four of the six regions across Malta and Gozo. 

The survey was carried out between 28 October and 3 November, in the aftermath of the budget and the leaders’ speeches in parliament. 

Among voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL scores 32.4% against the PN’s 12.8%, a 20-point gap. Among those aged between 36 and 50, the PL scores 40.1% against the PN’s 28.5%. 

The PL enjoys an absolute majority among those aged between 51 and 65 with 52.3%, another 20-point lead over the PN. 

The parties come closest among pensioners, where the PL scores 48.6% and the PN registers 44.2%. 

On a geographical basis, the PL is ahead in Gozo, the Northern Harbour, the South-Eastern and the Southern Harbour regions. The PN wins in the Northern and Western regions. 

The PL’s best result is in the South-Eastern region, where it scores 66%. Its worst result is in the Western region, where it scores 31%. 

The PN’s best result is in the Northern region, where it receives the support of 39.9%. Its worst result is in the South-Eastern region where it scores a lowly 11.9%. 

The PL retains 83.9% of people who voted for it in the 2017 general election, while the PN retains 72.4% of its voters. 

However, the PN loses 2.7% of those who voted for it in 2017 to the PL, while only 0.3% of PL voters will now vote PN. 

The Opposition party has more voters than its rival, who are unsure or will not vote if an election is held today.