Back to blue: Gozo swings back to PN despite third party surge

MaltaToday Gozo survey | VOTING: PN 47.4%, PL 41.7%, ADPD 5.8%, Others 5.1% • Turnout: 80% • TRUST: Robert Abela 37.7%, Bernard Grech 29.1%, None 33.3%

MaltaToday's first ever Gozo survey polled 666 voters from the 13th District
MaltaToday's first ever Gozo survey polled 666 voters from the 13th District

SUMMARY

The Nationalist Party is set to retake Gozo and is leading the Labour Party by nearly six points even if it falls short of an absolute majority.

This emerges from MaltaToday’s first ever survey to be conducted entirely in the 13th District among a representative sample of 666 Gozitan respondents. The survey was held between 16 January and 28 January.

The result puts the PN at 47.4%, the PL at 41.7% and third parties collectively at 10.9% and is based on a projected turnout of 80%.

The survey suggests the Gozitan electorate is in flux with Labour losing support to abstention and to the PN, while the Opposition is mainly losing support to third parties. The PN’s losses are however offset by a notable shift in its favour from the PL. The survey shows that Labour has lost 3,770 votes from its 2022 general election tally, the PN has gained 409 votes and third parties have seen their vote share increase by over 2,015 votes.

Prime Minister Robert Abela leads Opposition leader Bernard Grech by nine points on the trust barometer. The survey shows that 30% of the PN’s current voters do not trust any of the two leaders but would still vote for their party.

VOTING INTENTIONS: PN ahead despite losses to third parties

The Gozitan electorate is in flux with different categories of voters moving in different directions, a MaltaToday regional survey suggests.

While Labour is mostly losing votes to abstention and to the PN, the Nationalists are losing more votes to third parties.

The MaltaToday Gozo survey shows that ultimately the PN is gaining more votes than it is losing, and based on a predicted turnout of 80% – down from 88% in the 2022 general election – the PN is now leading Labour by 5.7 points in the region. 

Bernard Grech addressing supporters in Victoria: The PN is now leading the PL by 5.7 points on the island (Photo: PN)
Bernard Grech addressing supporters in Victoria: The PN is now leading the PL by 5.7 points on the island (Photo: PN)

This represents a drastic reversal of fortunes for the PL which back in 2022 had enjoyed a 10-point advantage over the PN.

The survey shows that in Gozo the PN is now leading the PL by 1,649 votes, overturning Labour’s considerable 2,530-vote lead in the 2022 general election.

The survey suggests that while Labour has lost 3,770 votes since 2022, the PN has gained a modest 409 votes while the third-party vote has increased by a remarkable 2,015 votes.

The PN has only increased its vote share by three points over the 2022 election but the PL’s share has decreased by 11 points. Third parties have seen their share of the vote increase by eight points.

Significant shift from PL to PN

The PN’s positive result comes amidst a considerable shift in its favour of 2022 Labour voters.

While the PN is only losing 1.3% of its 2022 voters to Labour, the PL is losing 9.6% of its Gozitan voters to the Nationalists.

PL supporters at the Naxxar Counting Hall in the 2022 general election: Labour is currently more heavily penalised by abstention than the PN
PL supporters at the Naxxar Counting Hall in the 2022 general election: Labour is currently more heavily penalised by abstention than the PN

In this case the shift from the PL to the PN in Gozo is more pronounced than that in national surveys. The last national MaltaToday survey carried out in November showed that only 4% of PL voters in 2022 would vote PN in a future election. Moreover, this shift was partly offset by 3% of PN voters who would now vote PL.

But as is the case on a national level, Labour is more heavily penalised by abstention than the PN.

The Gozo survey shows that while 16% of PL voters in the 2022 general election are now intent on not voting, only 4% of PN voters in that election will do likewise.

The shift to third parties

But the survey also shows the PN losing more votes to third parties than Labour. While Labour is losing 3% of its 2022 voters to ADPD and just 0.3% to other parties, the PN is losing nearly 5.6% of its 2022 vote to ADPD and a further 5.7% to other parties.

Overall, while the PL is losing 3.3% to third parties, the PN is losing 11% of its 2022 vote to smaller parties.

ADPD Chairperson Sandra Gauci (left) and Secretary General Ralph Cassar: In Gozo, the Green Party is managing to take votes from both major parties
ADPD Chairperson Sandra Gauci (left) and Secretary General Ralph Cassar: In Gozo, the Green Party is managing to take votes from both major parties

The survey also suggests that flows to new parties follow a different trajectory than those for ADPD. While ADPD manages to take votes from both established parties, new political forces are mostly draining the PN vote. 

But new political forces are also taking a significant portion of people who did not vote in the 2022 general election. In this category 10.3% will vote for these parties while only 3.3% will vote ADPD.

Overall, the survey suggests that PN losses to third parties are offset by its gains from Labour and the greater abstention in the cohort of 2022 Labour voters. In fact while the PN retains 83.5% of its 2022 voters, Labour only retains 71% of its voters.

PL, ADPD and new parties stronger among younger voters

The survey shows the PL still leading the PN in Gozo among under 50-year-olds. While the PL leads by three points among 16- to 35-year-olds, it leads by 9.5 points among 35- to 50-year-olds. But the PN is leading by a considerable margin among older voters: 9.6 points among 51- to 65-year-olds and by 20 points among pensioners.

The survey also shows third parties making strong inroads among younger voters. Among 16- to 35-year-olds a considerable 17% opt for third parties, equally split between ADPD and ‘others’.

Young voters gravitate more towards the PL and third parties
Young voters gravitate more towards the PL and third parties

ADPD retains its dominance of the third-party field among voters aged between 36 and 65, but new parties score better than ADPD among Gozitans aged over 65.

But the percentage opting for third parties drops from 17% among 16- to 35-year-olds to 9% among 36- to 50-year-olds, to 7% among 50- to 65-year-olds and to just 2% among pensioners.

Abstention highest among 36- to 50-year-olds

The survey shows that that abstention in Gozo peaks among those aged between 36 to 50 where nearly a third (32%) are intent on not voting in a future election. This is also the segment where the PN is weakest (25%) which suggests that this segment that includes people at the peak of their careers, is the most distrustful of the Opposition, preferring to park their vote in the abstentionist camp rather than to shift to the PN.

But abstention drops to 19.5% among younger voters aged under 35, amongst which support for third parties is considerably higher than in other categories. Abstention remains relatively high among those aged between 51 and 65 (23%) but drops to just 8.5% among those aged over 65. The latter category also registers the lowest third-party vote and the highest support for the PN.

PN fares better among women

Curiously, while the survey shows the two major parties neck and neck among male voters, the PN enjoys a strong 10-point lead among female voters.

Male voters are also slightly more inclined to abstain than female voters while women are slightly more inclined to vote for third parties. This suggests that the PN is finding it more difficult to communicate with Gozitan men.

Gozo’s historical shifts: Back to blue?

A PN activity in front of the Banca Giuratale, which was the seat of the elected Gozo Regional Council before it was abolished in the 1970s
A PN activity in front of the Banca Giuratale, which was the seat of the elected Gozo Regional Council before it was abolished in the 1970s

The survey represents a considerable reversal of fortunes for all parties in the context of the post 2013 political landscape, which saw Labour becoming the dominant force in Gozo.   

But Gozo has traditionally leaned PN in all elections between 1962 and 2013 with the PN peaking at 66% in 1966 when Labour voters were morally sanctioned by the church. 

The PN remained dominant in the next decades, scoring its best results in 1981, 1992 and 2003 when the party reached the 59% mark.

On the other hand, support for Labour never surpassed the 45% mark in any election held between 1962 and 2013.

But Labour has seen its percentage increase from 43% in 2008 to 49% in 2013, to 51% in 2017 and to a post- independence record of 53.5% in 2022.

Joseph Muscat campaigning in Gozo in the 2017 election, which was the first time the PL obtained an absolute majority on the island
Joseph Muscat campaigning in Gozo in the 2017 election, which was the first time the PL obtained an absolute majority on the island

Labour has also elected three seats from the district in the past three general elections, a feat by all means in a conservative community where almost 70% had voted against the introduction of divorce in 2011.

While the PN still won a wafer thin majority of votes in 2013 (49.1%), Labour still managed to grab a third seat from Gozo, a feat repeated in 2017 and  2022 when the party also secured a majority of Gozitan votes.

This suggests that Labour has managed to make major inroads in the past decade characterised by a property boom.  Labour now also benefits from the same power of incumbency which the PN used in its favour before 2013.

But with the PL’s support standing at 42%, which is slightly lower than it was in 2003, the survey suggests this could be the beginning of a new political cycle that could see a number of former PN voters who shifted to Labour in the past decade going back home.

But in its bid to appeal to these voters by offering a degree of continuity with Labour, the PN risks losing other categories of voters who shun compromise with powerful lobbies and thus are more disposed to vote for a third party.

Alex Borg is the PN's star candidate in Gozo having obtained the highest number of votes among PN candidates in the 2022 general election (Photo: James Bianchi/MaltaToday)
Alex Borg is the PN's star candidate in Gozo having obtained the highest number of votes among PN candidates in the 2022 general election (Photo: James Bianchi/MaltaToday)

What is most unprecedented in the survey is the result of third parties which together garner the support of over a tenth of the Gozitan electorate. Apart from the immediate post war period which saw the emergence of the Gozo Party and the Jones Party and a successful run by Coronato Attard as a candidate for Herbert Ganado’s Democratic Nationalist Party in 1962, third parties have made limited inroads.

Attard himself immediately defected to the PN helping George Borg Olivier secure a parliamentary majority. Attard’s daughter, Giovanna Debono, continued his legacy in the 1990s and 2000s becoming the PN’s most popular MP.

With the exception of a few successful runs at local level in the aftermath of the EU referendum, AD never took root in Gozo, barely scraping the 1% mark in all post 1992 general elections.

But amidst discontent triggered by over development, including the recent outrage on the Chambray project, the party is now scoring at nearly 6%. Moreover, a sizeable 5% are opting for new parties. In the 2022 general election, only 2.4% had voted for a third party.

TRUST BAROMETER: Robert Abela leads Bernard Grech by nine points in Gozo

Gozitan voters have given Robert Abela a trust rating of 38%, nine points more than Bernard Grech, who scores 29%, a regional MaltaToday survey shows.

Nonetheless, when Gozitan respondents were asked who of the two leaders they trust most, 33% opted for neither of the two main leaders.

Gozo is the only region of Malta that corresponds to a single electoral district, a status that is also protected by the Constitution.

Prime Minister Robert Abela leads Bernard Grech by nine points in Gozo (Photo: PL)
Prime Minister Robert Abela leads Bernard Grech by nine points in Gozo (Photo: PL)

The trust gap between the two leaders in Gozo is narrower than the gap at the national level as determined by MaltaToday’s last national poll in November 2024 when Abela led Grech by 15 points overall.

Compared to the November national poll, Grech’s rating in Gozo is five points higher while Abela’s is the same.

Moreover, the latest regional survey shows Grech also manages to make inroads among former Labour voters in Gozo. In fact, 8% of PL voters in the 2022 general election trust Grech more than Abela compared to 4% of PN voters who trust Abela.

This trend is much more pronounced in Gozo than the country as whole. MaltaToday’s national survey in November found that overall, only 2.5% of 2022 PL voters opted for Grech as the most trusted leader.

The main reason why Abela still leads over Grech despite the PN’s inroads in Gozo is that 30% of current PN voters say they trust neither of the two leaders. In contrast, only 6.6% of current PL voters trust neither Abela nor Grech.

This means  that a significant chunk of PN voters would still vote for the party despite their lack of trust in Grech’s leadership abilities.

But the survey also suggests that Labour is more likely to recover support among current non-voters amongst whom 20% trust Abela while only 7% trust Grech. Still, in an indication that most of these voters are not going anywhere, 73% say they support neither political leader.

Abela stronger among men, Grech among the elderly

The survey also suggests that Abela is considerably more trusted by Gozitan males than females. While Abela is trusted by 41% of males, only 35% of women trust the Prime Minister. Grech is also marginally more trusted by men. 

But women are significantly more likely to distrust both leaders. While 28% of male voters distrust both leaders, this percentage increases to 38% among female voters.

Bernard Grech scores a trust rating of 45% among pensioners
Bernard Grech scores a trust rating of 45% among pensioners

In terms of age, trust in Grech increases with age from just 19% among 16- to 35-year-olds to 45% among 65 year olds. In contrast, Abela’s trust rating peaks at 43% among those aged 36- to 50-year-olds and is stable at between 35% and 36% in the other age groups.

This could be an indication that this age group (36-50), which includes people at the peak of their career, believe Labour offers greater peace of mind.

On the other hand, a relative majority of Gozitans aged under 35 years of age trust neither of the two leaders in what could indicate brewing dissatisfaction among younger voters who are also more inclined to voter for third parties.

GOZO PERCEPTIONS BAROMETER: From best vision to standard of living

When asked which of the two main parties has the best vision for Gozo, a staggering 52% could not provide an answer while 24% opted for Labour and 23% opted for the PN.

And in another sign of greater disgruntlement among younger voters nearly two thirds of voters aged between 16 and 35 could not choose which of the two parties has the best vision for Gozo.

Absolute majority cannot say which major party has the best vision for Gozo
Absolute majority cannot say which major party has the best vision for Gozo

Labour fares better than the PN in all age groups except those aged over 65 amongst which 37% think the Opposition has the best vision for the island.

Among 36- to 50-year-olds, only 15% think the PN has the best vision while 23% think Labour is better in this aspect.  The survey also shows that among current non-voters a staggering 94% could not choose which party has the best vision for Gozo.

More Gozitans think their life is improving

Despite Labour’s apparent problems, more voters think that their standard of living is improving (29%) than deteriorating (23%).

Nonetheless, a majority (48%) replied that their standard of living remains the same as before.

More Gozitans think their standard of living is improving
More Gozitans think their standard of living is improving

Notably, the perception that the standard of living is deteriorating is strongest among 16- to 35-year-olds. In contrast older voters aged above 65 are the most likely to say that their standard of living is improving (37.5%). 

The perception that the standard of living is deteriorating is particularly strong among current non-voters (35%). This perception is even stronger in this category than among PN votes (33%). This suggests that disgruntlement in this category is partly triggered by financial discontent.

Predictably the perception that the standard of living is improving is strongest among current Labour voters (53%).