Labour Party strengthens lead to 24,000 votes, Bernard Grech’s trust crashes

SUMMARY

The Labour Party has increased its lead over the Nationalist Party from 12,000 votes in February to 24,000 votes now, MaltaToday’s April survey shows.

The PL now scores an absolute majority of 51.6% against the PN’s 42.8%. The survey also shows a small drop in support for third parties whose vote is fragmented between Momentum, ADPD and other smaller parties.

Labour’s nine-point lead is the result of a sharp 10-point drop in abstention among past PL voters and an a six-point increase in abstention among past PN voters. In a reversal of previous trends the PL is now retaining more votes (80.4%) of its 2022 election tally than the PN (77.7%).

The results are based on a projected turnout of 77.5%, a two-point increase since February.

The survey coincided with a concerted effort by the Labour leadership to galvanise core voters with government approving a controversial magisterial inquiries reform and a greater emphasis on neutrality. In recent weeks, Labour also flagged divisions within the PN. The results suggest the strategy has paid off.

The MaltaToday survey once again confirms the unpopularity of PN Leader Bernard Grech, who now trails Robert Abela by a staggering 27 points. Grech has registered the worst performance in 14 months and his trust rating among 16- to 35-year-olds has dipped to a dismal 12%.

In another indication of the feel-good factor in the country, government received a satisfactory rating of 3.1 out of 5, up from 2.9 in February.

VOTING INTENTIONS: Labour regains absolute majority with nine-point lead over PN

The Labour Party is leading the Nationalist Party by 8.8 points, which translates into an advantage of 24,145 votes on a projected turnout of 77.5%.

The results from MaltaToday’s April survey put the PL’s support at 51.6% against the PN’s 42.8%, whereas Momentum scored 2.2% and ADPD 1.5%.

Compared to the last MaltaToday survey held in February, the PL has gained 3.4 points and the PN has lost 1.1 points. In the same time frame the percentage of non-voters has dropped by two points. As a result, the gap between the two major parties has more than doubled from an 11,613-vote advantage for the PL in February to 24,145 votes now.

Labour’s gains can be attributed to a remarkable drop in the percentage of Labour voters in the past general election who would not vote if an election is held now. The results show that from 21.1% in February the PL’s non-voters have dropped to just 11% now. In contrast, the survey shows that the percentage of non-voters among PN voters in the last election increased from 13.5% in February to 19% now.

This suggests that Robert Abela’s strategy of appealing to the party’s hardcore in the past months has worked. Abela pressed on with a reform of magisterial inquiries aimed at clipping the wings of government critics like Jason Azzopardi and Repubblika, and emphasised Malta’s constitutional neutrality despite his convoluted messages in Brussels and Valletta.

The result also suggests that at a time of international crisis voters have once again rallied behind the incumbent government as was the case during the pandemic.

The survey also shows Labour scoring an absolute majority for the first time since the European Parliament election in June last year.

The share of third parties has collectively decreased by two points from 7.9% in February to 5.6% now. The third-party vote is fragmented between Momentum (2.2%), ADPD (1.5%) and other small parties (1.9%).

Small shift to PN cancelled by drop in Labour’s non voters

Despite Labour’s gains, the survey still shows a small shift from the PL to the PN. While the PL loses 5.3% of its 2022 voters to the PN, the PN only loses 2% of its 2022 voters to the PL. The PL also loses more of its general election voters to third parties than the PN. While the PL loses over 3% of its 2022 voters to third parties, the PN only loses 1.3% of its voters to small parties.

But while the PN retains 77.7% of its 2022 voters, the PL is now retaining 80.4% of its voters. These figures suggest that internal divisions in the PN and dissatisfaction with the party leader’s performance may be weighing down the prospects of the opposition party. But this means that the PN could be more competitive if it manages to motivate its own disenchanted voters.

PN leads in north, west and Gozo

The survey shows solid leads for the PL in the South Harbour and South Eastern regions and for the PN in the Northern region. But both parties are neck to neck in the rest of Malta.

The survey shows Labour increasing its lead in its heartlands in the South Harbour region, which includes Cottonera. In this region, support for the PL has surged from 37.5% in February to 56.2% now. The party’s gains in this region reflect a seven-point drop in non-voters.

Labour still leads by 14 points in the South Eastern region despite a 10-point increase for the PN. On the other hand, the PN enjoys a strong nine-point lead in the Northern region despite the PL share increasing by five points. The parties remain neck to neck in the North Harbour region where the PL is now leading by one point, reversing a two-point lead for the PN in February.

In Gozo, the PN is now leading by just one point, down from 15 points in February. But the party has retaken the Western district where it is now leading by four points.

Support for third parties is highest in the Northern region, where support for Arnold Cassola’s Momentum peaks at 4.2% while ADPD and other parties register 2.6%.

The highest percentage of non-voters (30.3%) is found in the South Eastern region followed by the Western region (27.1%).

36- to 50-year-olds most dissatisfied with PL

The survey shows Labour leading in all age groups but the gap between the parties is reduced to just one point among voters aged between 36 and 50. This crucial age group includes voters at the peak of their career and who are more likely to have dependents. This age bracket also includes the highest percentage of non-voters (33.2%).

On the other hand, the PN registers its lowest levels of support (22.5%) among 16- to 35-year-olds. This age group also registers the highest level of support for third parties (8.9%). The survey shows Labour leading by 4.4 points among over 65-year-olds and by nearly 6.5 points among 51- to 65-year-olds.

Women more likely to support PN

While the PL enjoys a strong 12-point advantage among men, its lead drops to just two points among women. The survey also shows an educational divide between tertiary educated voters amongst which the PN leads by nine points and the rest of the population, where Labour enjoys a comfortable lead ranging from seven points among the post-secondary educated to 27 points among those with a primary level of education.

Support for third parties is also considerably higher among the tertiary educated (6.8%) and the post-secondary educated (6.9%).

TRUST BAROMETER: Bernard Grech posts worst trust rating in 14 months

Prime Minister Robert Abela is still significantly more trusted to run the country than Opposition Leader Bernard Grech, MaltaToday’s April survey shows.

The results show that Abela is trusted by 46.5%, the same level of trust as in February, while Grech’s rating has dropped to 20% from 24.7% two months ago.

Grech’s rating is the worst result since February last year when he received a rating of 16.7%. The decline in Grech’s rating since the last survey corresponds to a 4.9-point increase in those who trust neither of the two leaders.

This means that the trust gap between Abela and Grech has increased from 16 points in September 2024 to 18 points in November to 22 points in February 2025 and 27 points now.

While the survey confirms Abela’s strong advantage over Grech, it also suggests that Grech’s poor rating is not deterring a sizeable number of voters, who trust neither of the two leaders, from voting for the PN if an election is held now.

In fact, 38.1% of current PN voters trust neither leader and surprisingly 3.7% trust Abela more than Grech but would still vote PN. And while only 58.2% of current PN voters trust Grech, a staggering 96.2% of current Labour voters trust Abela.

What is definitely bad news for the Nationalists is Grech’s extremely low standing among current non-voters – a strategic category where the PN needs to make inroads to secure victory in the next general election. In this sizeable category, only 2.5% trust Grech to run the country, while 25.3% trust Abela. This suggests that Labour has more room to grow in this vital category than the PN does.

Abela leads in all six regions

Despite Labour trailing the PN in three out of six regions, Abela leads Grech in all regions, including Gozo where trust in the opposition leader has dipped from 36.9% in February to 19.4% now.

However, Abela’s lead over Grech ranges from 42.7 points in the South Harbour region, to 7.7 points in the Northern region.

The largest percentage of respondents who trust neither of the two leaders is found in the PN-leaning Northern region where 42.1% trust neither leader.

Only 12% of young voters trust Grech

In a clear indication of Grech’s failure to communicate with young voters, only 12.1% of those aged between 16 and 35 trust Grech over Abela. In contrast 47% of young voters trust Abela while 40.9% trust neither of the two leaders.

Moreover, Grech’s rating only improved slightly to 16.8% among those aged between 36 and 50 despite Abela’s problems in this age group. In fact, among these voters who are at the peak of their career, Abela registers the lowest trust rating (39.9%) and a relative majority trusts neither leader (43.4%).

Abela more trusted by males

The survey shows that while 50% of males trust Abela with leading the country, his trust rating drops to 43.3% among females. Grech is also marginally more trusted by females. Abela is also more trusted than Grech in all educational groups. But a relative majority of the tertiary educated (43.9%) trusts neither of the two leaders

Significantly, Grech is least trusted by respondents who have continued their post-secondary studies but have not been to university. Only 13.8% of voters in this cohort trust Grech.

GOV. PERFORMANCE BAROMETER: Highest ever performance rating since 2023

Respondents have given the government a mean score of 3.1 out of 5 when asked to rate the administration’s performance.

This represents an increase of 0.2 points over the result obtained in the February survey and a more significant increase of 0.4 points from November last year. This is the highest ever score since the performance barometer started being recorded in 2023.

Respondents were asked to rate the administration’s performance on a scale of 0 (very bad) to 5 (very good).

A breakdown by age shows the government enjoying a high rating of 3.1 among all age groups except those aged 36 to 50, amongst which the rating drops to 3.

On a regional level the government’s rating ranges from 2.8 in the Northern region to 3.2 in the South Harbour region.

Not surprisingly current PN voters give the government the lowest rating (2) and current Labour voters the highest rating (4.1). But even among current PN voters a substantial 41% gave the government a rating of 3 or more.

The government also manages to surpass the pass mark among current non-voters who give the administration a positive rating of 2.8. Among this category 69.5% of respondents gave the government a rating of 3 or more.

The highest rating is registered among respondents with a primary level of education (3.5) and lowest among those with a tertiary education (2.8).