MaltaToday Survey | Adrian Delia running on the spot as Muscat retains high trust

Joseph Muscat’s trust rating soars as the Nationalist Party leader fails to impress despite winning a vote of confidence

Adrian Delia has failed to boost his trust rating among the wider electorate despite winning a vote of confidence among Nationalist Party councillors, a MaltaToday survey shows.

The results of the October survey released today show that Delia’s trust rating runs at 16.7%, a mere percentage point improvement over the result obtained in the July survey.

Prime Minister Joseph Muscat’s trust rating stands at 54.1%.

The Opposition leader continues to be hampered by a large chunk of Nationalist Party voters who trust no one, and a significant group who trust Muscat.

Among those who voted PN in the last general election, Delia only manages a trust rating of 41.2%. An almost equal amount of PN voters (42.2%) trust neither Delia nor Muscat, and 12.8% trust the Prime Minister.

Last July, Delia won a vote of confidence among PN councillors but the exercise exposed the internal rift over his leadership, with 32% voting against him. Just before the PN vote, a MaltaToday survey had established Delia’s trust rating among the wider electorate at 15.8%.

Things do not appear to have gotten better for Delia, who had to contend with the resignation of the PN’s treasurer last week, and a very poor turnout for the party’s downscaled Independence Day celebrations that moved away from the Granaries.

Delia trails Muscat among men and women, across all age groups, and regions.

The trust gap between the two leaders has now widened to just above 37 points.

The PN leader’s woes find their flipside in Muscat’s trust rating, which stands at 54.1%, an increase of almost two points over July.

The Prime Minister enjoys equal trust among men and women, each 54.1%, and soars to 59.9% among those aged between 36 and 50.

On a regional basis, Muscat’s highest trust rating is in the South-East, where he manages 75.5%, followed by the Southern Harbour region (56.8%). In Gozo, Muscat registers a trust rating of 52.1%.

The young

Trust is hardest to come by in the age group between 18 and 35, where 42.1% say they trust none of the two major party leaders.

This is the age group with the highest lack of trust, more than double those in the 65+ age group.

However, Muscat is leaps and bounds ahead of Delia. The Prime Minister registers a trust rating of 45.7%, against Delia’s dismal 7.7%.

These figures represent the worst result for both leaders across the age groups.

Labour leads PN by 22 pts

lead over the Nationalist Party in the first MaltaToday poll since the May European Parliament election.

Support for the PL is running at 45.3%, while the PN is polling at 23.3%. Alternattiva Demokratika and the Democratic Party have a combined support of 1.5%.

There are 15.1% of voters who will not vote if an election is held tomorrow, while 14% are uncertain who to vote for.

The PL lead is the biggest since November last year, when a MaltaToday survey recorded a gap of almost 28 points. It is also substantially higher than the European Parliament election five months ago when the PL ended up 16 points ahead of its rival.

The result is in line with the findings of a similar survey carried out by It-Torċa two weeks ago.

The PL polls ahead of the PN among men and women, across all age groups and all regions.

The biggest support for the PL is in the South-Eastern region, which also represents the largest gap between the major parties. In the South-East, the PL is polling at 69.8%, against the PN’s 10%.

The parties are the closest in the Western region, where the PL leads with 27% against the PN’s 24.8%.

In Gozo, once a PN bulwark, the PL is polling at 38.8%, while the PN is running at 33.6%.

PN still losing votes to PL

When the findings are cross-referenced with how people voted in the last general election, the survey shows that the PN is finding it hard to retain its own voter base.

Of those who voted PN in 2017, 57.8% will vote again for their party if an election is held tomorrow. This contrasts with the 84.9% of PL voters in 2017, who are willing to reconfirm their support.

But the bad news for the PN does not end there. The survey shows that 15.7% of PN 2017 voters will not vote, 18.6% are uncertain, and 3.9% will shift their vote to the PL.

The equivalent results for the PL show that 6.1% will not vote, 8.7% are uncertain, and less than half a percentage will shift to the PN.

The survey shows that the PN is still haemorrhaging votes to the PL, a trend that has not abated since the 2017 general election.