MaltaToday Survey | Labour enters last lap with 29,000-vote advantage over PN

Bernard Grech’s trust rating increased by one point to 30.6% at the end of the electoral campaign’s fourth week but still trails Robert Abela by 13 points.

Abela’s trust rating stands at 43.8% in MaltaToday’s rolling survey, with the Labour leader beating his rival across all age groups, among men and women and in four of six regions.

The survey has been building up its sample size on a daily basis, ensuring that daily polling reflects the country’s demographics and past voting patterns. By Friday at 8pm, 2,471 people were polled since Monday, 21 February.

Middle-aged and pensioners are a driving force

Abela’s strongest performance is among middle-aged voters and pensioners, where he is trusted by 49.1% and 49.3% respectively.
Grech’s strongest performance is among pensioners where he scores 38.7%, followed by middle-aged voters at 31.6%.

Among young voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL leader has a trust rating of 37.2% as opposed to Grech’s 27%. Withing this age group, the Nationalist Party leader has made some gains over the past week. However, 26.8% of people in this age cohort trust no one.

South-east remains Grech’s bogeyman

On a geographical basis, Grech has thin victories in the Northern and Northern Harbour regions. In the Northern region, Grech scores 35.6% versus Abela’s 33.4%, and in the Northern Harbour, the PN leader scores 38.7% against Abela’s 38%.

Elsewhere, Grech trails Abela with the most significant margins recorded in the south and east of the country.

In the South-Eastern region, the PL leader enjoys a trust rating of 57.3%, while Grech continues to register his worst performance at 15.8%.

This region is composed of Żejtun, Birżebbuġa, Gudja, Għaxaq, Kirkop, Marsaskala, Marsaxlokk, Mqabba, Qrendi, Safi and Żurrieq, which correspond to the 3rd and 5th electoral districts that are Labour strongholds.

In the Southern Harbour region, Abela scores his best performance at 58.3% against Grech’s 24.9%. This region is made up of Valletta, Vittoriosa, Isla, Bormla, Żabbar, Fgura, Floriana, Kalkara, Luqa, Marsa, Paola, St Luċija, Tarxien and Xgħajra. This region largely conforms to the 2nd and 4th electoral districts, which are also Labour strongholds.

In Gozo, Abela enjoys the trust of 44.7% against Grech’s 28.2%.

In the Western region, Abela has a slim advantage with 35.9% against Grech’s 35.5%.

Among those who are saying they will vote PL in the 26 March election, Abela enjoys the trust of 97.7%, while Grech enjoys the trust of 91.2% of those who will vote PN.

Again, 6% of prospective PN voters say they trust no one as opposed to 1.1% of prospective Labour voters.

Labour enters last lap with 29,000-vote advantage over PN

Labour has increased its lead to nine points over the Nationalist Party as the election campaign enters its final week, MaltaToday’s rolling survey shows.

The gap between the parties translates into a 29,000-vote advantage for the PL in what has been a week of marginal gains for Robert Abela’s party.

The PL registers 53.7% support, an increase of 0.5 points over last Sunday, and the PN 44.3%, a decline of 0.4 points. Third parties collectively continue to hover on the 2% mark.

The extrapolated result puts the gap between the two major parties at 29,003 votes, up from 25,996 last Sunday. The gap in the 2017 election stood at 35,000.

The results are based on an expected share of valid votes that equates to 86.9% of eligible voters. This represents an increase of 0.3 points since last Sunday.

The expected share of valid votes is not the turn out figure but rather the basis on which an election is determined – valid votes cast.

In the 2017 election, the turnout was 92.1% and the share of valid votes cast stood at 90.9%.

MaltaToday’s rolling survey continues to project a higher abstention rate than the last general election but it appears that efforts to bring out the vote are leaving their mark.

The expected share of valid votes has gone from 84% in the first survey released on Sunday 27 February, to 86.9% today.

The past seven days have seen the PN’s daily share of the vote rise to 45.1%, only to start declining mid-week. The PL shed votes at the start of the week but started recovering since Wednesday.

The week was characterised by the leaders’ debate at the Chamber of Commerce in Valletta on Wednesday, the PN’s inability to explain the impact of its trackless tram proposal on existing road infrastructure, and Robert Abela having to deny any involvement in the sanctioning of a Żejtun villa.

However, all changes remained well within the margin of error.

Age and region

The raw data shows the PL beating the PN across all age groups, among men and women and in three out of the six regions.

Among young voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL’s support stands at 28.7% and that of the PN’s at 26.1%. The gap between the parties in this age group has narrowed further over the past seven days but 28.6% of young voters remain undecided.

Among pensioners, both parties score their best results with the PL enjoying the support of 46.1% and the PN at 37.6%.

On a geographical basis, none of the regions have changed allegiance over the past seven days. The PL wins in Gozo, the South-Eastern and Southern Harbour regions, while the PN captures the Northern, Northern Harbour and the Western regions.

Shifts and abstentions

Both parties lose 3.7% of their respective 2017 voting share to each other, which results in a net movement of 1,306 votes from the PL to the PN.

There are also 5.2% of PL voters who say they will not vote, equivalent to just under 9,000 votes, and 5.3% of Nationalist voters, equivalent to just over 7,000 votes, who are abstaining.

In our projected result, undecided voters are assumed to vote according to their 2017 preference but the PN continues to have more unsure voters within its ranks than Labour.

The survey shows that 18.6% of 2017 PN voters, equivalent to just over 25,000 votes, are undecided. This is almost a two-point decline over last Sunday’s findings.

The equivalent share of undecided PL voters has remained the same at 14.7% or just over 25,000.

It remains to be seen whether undecided voters will fall in line with past voting preferences as we are assuming, shift their vote or even stay at home on election day.

Among new voters, the share of undecided has remained high at 40.3% as the electoral campaign enters its final week. Undecided new voters are excluded from the extrapolated result since we have no past benchmark to base our assumption on.

Support for the PL among new voters stands at 22.3% as opposed to the PN’s 20.9%. The difference has narrowed slightly since last Sunday.

Methodology

The survey is the cumulative data set carried out between Monday 21 February 2022 and Friday 18 March 2022. 2,471 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 2% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error.